rounded corner
rounded corner
top border

WASDE REPORT FOR 10/12/17


Bookmark and Share

Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas 1 week trial offer for $50

Attention Corn & Soybean Producers:

One week trial offer for $50 on learning about the best way to hedge. Inmyopinion, my strategy is the best I have seen since I became a member in 1976 trading corn and soybeans for my own account.


Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 40+ years.

WHEAT: Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat supplies are decreased modestly this month as reduced beginning stocks are partially offset by slightly higher wheat production. Beginning stocks were revised downward in the latest NASS Grain Stocks report while wheat production increased in the NASS Small Grains Annual Summary to 1,741 million bushels. Although all wheat production increased minimally from last month, the by-class changes are relatively more significant as larger Durum and Hard Red Spring production more than offset declines in Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter. Projected 2017/18 feed and residual is reduced 30 million bushels this month to 120 million as the NASS Grain Stocks report indicated lower-than-expected June-August disappearance. Additionally, projected 2017/18 U.S. corn supplies are the second highest on record, which is expected to dampen wheat feed and residual use for the rest of 2017/18. The other wheat use categories are unchanged this month and projected 2017/18 ending stocks are higher at 960 million bushels but still well below last years 1,181 million. The projected 2017/18 season-average farm price is unchanged this month at the midpoint of $4.60 per bushel but the range is narrowed 10 cents on each end to $4.40 to $4.80.

Global 2017/18 wheat supplies are increased, primarily on higher production forecasts for Russia, EU, and India more than offsetting a decline in Australia. Based mainly on harvest results to date, Russias 2017/18 wheat production is increased 1.0 million tons to a new record of 82.0 million tons. This is well above last years previous record of 72.5 million tons. EU wheat production is raised 2.2 million tons to 151.0 million, largely on higher production in France. Australias wheat production is reduced 1.0 million tons to 21.5 million on persistent dry conditions in most of eastern Australia. This would be Australias lowest wheat output since the 2008/09 crop year.

Foreign 2017/18 trade is fractionally higher this month as reduced exports by Australia are offset by increased exports from Canada. Projected imports are lowered for India and Turkey as increased 2017/18 production for both countries is expected to reduce import needs. Total world consumption is projected higher, primarily on greater usage by India, EU, and Russia on their increased supplies. Projected global ending stocks are nearly 5.0 million tons higher this month at 268.1 million, which is a new record.

COARSE GRAINS: This months 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, increased feed and residual use, and nearly unchanged ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.280 billion bushels, up 96 million from last month. Corn supplies are higher, as a larger crop more than offsets a reduction in beginning stocks based on the Grain Stocks report. Projected feed and residual use is increased 25 million bushels. With supply and use changes essentially offsetting, corn ending stocks are up 5 million bushels from last month. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $2.80 to $3.60 per bushel.

Grain sorghum production is forecast down from last month, as a 2.4-bushel per acre increase in yield to 72.2 bushels per acre is more than offset by a reduction in harvested area. Barley and oat production estimates are updated based on the Small Grains report.

Global coarse grain production for 2017/18 is forecast up 2.8 million tons to 1,319.4 million. The 2017/18 foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production, consumption, and reduced stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher, with the largest reductions for Russia, Ukraine, Ethiopia, and Tanzania more than offset by increases for a number of countries including Nigeria, Turkey, and Mozambique. The projected corn yields for Russia and Ukraine are reduced based on reported harvest results to date. Historical revisions are made to Nigerias corn, sorghum, and millet production estimates to better reflect statistics published by the government.

Corn exports are raised for Mexico and Argentina, with largely offsetting reductions for Russia and Ukraine. Argentinas 2016/17 exports are lowered for the local marketing year beginning March 2017 reflecting a slower-than-expected pace of exports to date. Projected 2017/18 food, seed and industrial use for corn in China is raised based on recent trade data indicating a higher-than-expected level of corn product exports. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2017/18 are down from last month, mostly reflecting declines for China and Mexico that are only partially offset by increases for Argentina and Turkey. Global corn stocks, at 201.0 million, are down 1.5 million from last month.

RICE: The 2017/18 U.S. rice crop is reduced 1.1 million cwt to 178.6 million on lower yields and slightly lower harvested area. This is the smallest all rice crop since 1996/97. The average yield forecast is lowered 35 pounds per acre to 7,469. Decreases in California, Missouri, and Texas are partially offset by an increase in Arkansas. The long-grain crop is reduced 0.8 million cwt to 126.3 million. This is the smallest long grain crop since 2011/12. Medium- and short-grain production is lowered 0.3 million cwt to 52.3 million. No other supply and demand changes are made this month. All rice ending stocks are lowered 1.1 million cwt to 27.8 million, which would be the lowest all rice ending stocks in fourteen years. The all rice season-average farm price is unchanged at a range of $12.70 to $13.70 per cwt.

Global rice supplies for 2017/18 are raised 18.3 million tons mainly on a multi-year revision to Chinas stocks estimates beginning in 2010/11. The large multi-year changes in China stocks reflect significant government procurement since 2013 as well as reductions in estimated per capita rice consumption. For more information see page 11 of the October Grain World Markets and Trade Report (https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/grain-world-markets-and-trade). Global rice production is increased 0.4 million tons to 483.8 million with increases for Nigeria and Egypt partially offset by a reduction for Bangladesh. For 2017/18, global trade and total consumption are changed fractionally as a 1.3-million-ton increase in Nigerias consumption is partially offset by a 0.7-million-ton reduction for China. Global 2017/18 ending stocks are raised 18.0 million tons to 141.5 million, the highest since 2000/01. China is estimated to hold 65 percent of global rice stocks.

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected at 132.3 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month mainly on lower sunflowerseed, canola, and cottonseed production. Soybean production is forecast at 4,431 million bushels, nearly unchanged from last month with higher harvested area offsetting lower yields. Harvested area is projected at a record 89.5 million acres, up 0.8 million. The soybean yield is forecast at 49.5 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushels. With lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies for 2017/18 are projected down 44 million bushels. With use projections unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 430 million bushels. If realized, ending stocks relative to use would be the highest since 2006/07.

The 2017/18 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $8.35 to $10.05 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal and soybean oil price projections are also unchanged at $290 to $330 per short ton and 32.5 to 36.5 cents per pound, respectively.

Global oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected at 577.0 million tons, down 1.6 million as reductions for soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed are partly offset by increases for cottonseed and peanuts. Global soybean production is projected down 0.6 million tons to 347.9 million on lower forecasts for Russia and Ukraine. Higher production for China and Mexico is partly offsetting. Sunflowerseed production is also lower for Russia and Ukraine on lower yields. Rapeseed production is lowered for Australia where yields are impacted by below-normal rainfall.

Global oilseed exports for 2017/18 are down 0.4 million tons to 173.9 million on lower soybean and sunflowerseed exports. Soybean exports are lowered for Ukraine while sunflowerseed exports are lowered for Ukraine and Russia. Lower rapeseed exports for Australia are offset by higher exports for Ukraine. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2017/18 are projected down 1.6 million tons from last month to 107.9 million mainly reflecting back-year adjustments that reduced soybean carryin for Brazil and the United States.

SUGAR: Florida cane sugar production for 2017/18 is reduced by 90,038 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 2.036 million, consistent with lower sugarcane production and lower sucrose recovery projected by processors. Louisiana cane sugar production for 2017/18 is increased by 64,000 STRV to 1.690 million based on increased area harvested and yield forecast by NASS in the Crop Production report. U.S. beet sugar production for the 2017/18 August-July crop year is forecast at 5.110 million STRV, down 21,000 from last month based on NASS forecasts in the Crop Production report. Fiscal year 2017/18 beet sugar is decreased by 39,943 STRV to 4.977 million STRV based reductions in crop year production and an increase in early-season beet sugar production estimated for August and September 2017. Beet sugar production for 2016/17 is increased to 5.022 million STRV based on the higher early-season production.

Sugar imported under the raw sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for 2016/17 is reduced by 99,166 STRV. Due to the USDAs extension of entry of 2016/17 raw sugar TRQ imports to the end of October, 57,670 STRV of the 2016/17 TRQ imports are projected to enter in October 2017, increasing 2017/18 imports. Free Trade Agreement calendar year TRQ sugar of 16,342 STRV previously expected to enter before September 30 for 2016/17 is now expected to enter before December 31 for 2017/18, shifting projected 2016/17 imports into 2017/18. Re-export imports for 2016/17 reported by U.S. Customs and Border Protection are reported at 413,131 STRV, up 28,313 from last month. Total imports from Mexico for 2016/17 are estimated at 1.206 million STRV, down 10,000 from last month. Imports from Mexico for 2017/18 are projected at 1.789 million STRV, up 17,938 from last month but below the Target Quantity of U.S. Needs of 1.812 million calculated by the Commerce Department based on the September WASDE.

Sugar imported under the raw sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for 2016/17 is reduced by 99,166 STRV. Due to the USDAs extension of entry of 2016/17 raw sugar TRQ imports to the end of October, 57,670 STRV of the 2016/17 TRQ imports are projected to enter in October 2017, increasing 2017/18 imports. Free Trade Agreement calendar year TRQ sugar of 16,342 STRV previously expected to enter before September 30 for 2016/17 is now expected to enter before December 31 for 2017/18, shifting projected 2016/17 imports into 2017/18. Re-export imports for 2016/17 reported by U.S. Customs and Border Protection are reported at 413,131 STRV, up 28,313 from last month. Total imports from Mexico for 2016/17 are estimated at 1.206 million STRV, down 10,000 from last month. Imports from Mexico for 2017/18 are projected at 1.789 million STRV, up 17,938 from last month but below the Target Quantity of U.S. Needs of 1.812 million calculated by the Commerce Department based on the September WASDE.

Mexico 2016/17 ending stocks are estimated up 15,352 metric tons (MT) as higher imports of 10,000 for consumption and 15,178 for IMMEX are partially offset by higher exports of 9,826. Although 2016/17 sugar exports to the United States are down 8,578 MT from last month, exports to third countries and for the U.S. re-export import program are now estimated at 18,404 MT higher than last month. The resulting increase in 2017/18 sugar supply is available for export to the U.S. market, while allowing Mexico to maintain an ending stocks-to-consumption bound of 18.0 percent for anticipated use in 2018/19 before the start of the harvest.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2017 total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher broiler and turkey production more than offset fractionally lower beef and pork production. Beef production is reduced from the previous month largely due to lower expected fourth-quarter carcass weights. The pork production forecast is lowered on smaller-than-expected third-quarter commercial hog slaughter which more than offset higher expected second-half carcass weights. The broiler production forecast is raised on expectations of increased slaughter later in the year based on hatchery data. The turkey forecast is increased as higher third-quarter slaughter more than offsets expected declines in fourth-quarter slaughter. The 2017 egg production forecast is raised from last month on higher hatching egg production.

For 2018, the total red meat and poultry forecast is raised from the previous month as higher expected beef and pork production more than offset declines in turkey production. Beef production is little changed from last month although first half production is lowered as pasture conditions are expected to slow the pace of placements in the latter part of 2017. However, heavier carcass weights are expected to offset a portion of the decline. Pork production is raised from last month on higher slaughter. In the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released September 28, producers indicated they farrowed about 2 percent more sows in June-August and intend to farrow approximately 1 percent more sows over each of the next two quarters. With larger pig crops in the second half of 2017 and into 2018, pork production is forecast higher. The 2018 broiler and egg production forecasts are unchanged from the previous month. Turkey production forecasts for 2018 are lowered on slow recovery in demand which is expected to dampen the pace of expansion.

Beef import forecasts are raised in 2017 and 2018 on increased shipments of processing beef from Oceania. The 2017 and 2018 beef export forecasts are raised on strong demand in a number of key trading partners. Pork imports for 2017 and 2018 are raised from last month. The 2017 pork export forecast is lowered from the previous month on recent trade data, but no change is made to the 2018 export forecast. Annual broiler, turkey, and egg export forecasts are unchanged.

Cattle price forecasts are unchanged for 2017 and 2018. Hog price forecasts are lowered for the last quarter of 2017 and into 2018 on larger supplies and pressure from abundant supplies of red meat and poultry. The annual broiler price is forecast slightly lower for 2017 but is unchanged for 2018. Turkey price forecasts are lowered in 2017 and 2018 on slow recovery in demand. Egg price forecasts are raised on near-term demand strength which is expected to carry over into next year.

The milk production forecast for 2017 and 2018 is raised on a slightly more rapid pace of growth in milk per cow. However, forecast cow numbers for late 2017 and 2018 are slightly lower. Fat basis imports for 2017 and 2018 are raised on strength in butter imports but skim-solids imports are lowered for 2017 and unchanged for 2018. Exports on a fat basis are raised for 2017 on stronger butter and cheese exports, and increased sales of butter and anhydrous milkfat are expected to support higher fat basis exports in 2018. Skim-solids exports for 2017 and 2018 are raised, primarily on stronger expected shipments of whey products.

For 2017, butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are lowered on large supplies, but the whey price is unchanged at the midpoint and the cheese price forecast is raised on current demand strength. For 2018, continued demand strength for cheese is reflected in a higher price forecast, while butter, NDM, and whey prices are lowered on larger supplies and pressure from international prices. The Class III price is raised for 2017 on stronger cheese prices, but for 2018, lower whey prices are expected to more than offset the increases in cheese prices, and the price forecast is lowered. The Class IV price is lowered for both years due to lower forecast butter and NDM prices. The 2017 all milk price forecast range is $17.75 to $17.85 per cwt, unchanged at the midpoint, but the 2018 price is lowered to $17.45 to $18.35 per cwt.

COTTON: The 2017/18 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates show lower production, exports, and ending stocks relative to last month. Production is reduced 643,000 bales, largely in Texas and Georgia. Domestic mill use is unchanged from last month, but the export forecast is reduced 400,000 bales to 14.5 million, due to reduced U.S. production and strong competitor shipments. Ending stocks are forecast 200,000 bales below the previous months forecast. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio of 32.5 percent is virtually unchanged from the previous months forecast, and the highest since 2008/09. The forecast range for the marketing year average farm price is 55.0 to 65.0 cents per pound; the midpoint of 60.0 cents is unchanged from the previous months projection.

The global cotton supply and demand forecasts for 2017/18 include relatively small increases from the previous month for production, consumption, and trade. Production is raised about 100,000 bales as larger expected crops in Argentina, Brazil, and Greece more than offset the reduction in the forecast for the United States. Vietnam is the primary driver behind a 250,000-bale increase in projected world consumption, while a 440,000-bale increase in projected 2017/18 world cotton trade reflects increases in India, Australia, and Brazil that more than offset lower expected U.S. exports.


Want to know what I think for tomorrow and going forward?


The markets covered daily are 2017 & 2018 Soybeans and Corn.


My numbers are sent before the night session begins. (via your email)

Find out why my subscribers keep renewing this service for years.

Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas is designed to help you plan your hedging strategies and speculators for day or longer term trading.

Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas $279.00 monthly

Howard Tyllas
Put yourself in a position to make money, use the daily numbers service!

Email:dailynumbers@futuresflight.com

http://www.futuresflight.com/

Tel.1-312-823-9189,1-702-405-7245



Recent articles from this author



About the author


Currently a member of The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA). I started my career in 1973 on The Chicago Mercantile Exchange trading floor working for a major firm. Three years later I purchased my first membership and began what would become a thirteen-year commitment to trading soybeans for my own account on the trading floor. I began trading options on futures since their inception in Chicago about twenty years ago; doing so, I traded in various pits on the trade floor. 

One of the major lessons that I have learned from all my years of experience is that knowledge is an important condition for the possibility of successful trading. Knowledge gives you a better chance to succeed by eliminating obvious mistakes: with it, you will never find yourself shamefully uttering, “If I only took the time to learn”.  
         
I want to save you from such regrets by teaching you where the danger is, what it looks like, and how to go around it, while still keeping an eye on your destination of success. In short, I will teach you how to combat error with knowledge.
       
My mission is to educate you, giving you my 40 years experience, wisdom, and knowledge from which you will then be able to use and benefit from at will.

I know what will help you make money, and I know what will insure failure. Use my services and prevent, “If I only knew”.  
  

Howard Tyllas

Futures trading involves the substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not mean future results.

If you have a question, or comment, email me dailynumbers@futuresflight.com

Visit my website www.futuresflight.com

                                                 

                        

Published by Barchart
Home  •  Charts & Quotes  •  Commentary  •  Authors  •  Education  •  Broker Search  •  Trading Tools  •  Help  •  Contact  •  Advertise With Us  •  Commodities
Markets: Currencies  •   Energies  •   Financials  •   Grains  •   Indices  •   Meats  •   Metals  •   Softs

The information contained on InsideFutures.com is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Market data is furnished on an exchange delayed basis by Barchart.com. Data transmission or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. No information on the site, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. InsideFutures.com is not a broker, nor does it have an affiliation with any broker.


Copyright ©2005-2017 InsideFutures.com, a Barchart.com product. All rights reserved.

About Us  •   Sitemap  •   Legal  •   Privacy Statement