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Shake, Rattle and Roll


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The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite

As I type furiously away, corn prices are 3 cents lower, wheat is in the ugly by 5 cents but the ever buoyant soybeans are fractionally higher. At first blush, there is not much going on with grain prices as the losses are not much to tout and the small gains are meaningless .


However, a close here lower with corn or wheat prices places both markets within a few cents of new contract lows. I cannot recall the last time corn and wheat prices were hugging contract lows the day before a major USDA report is scheduled to be released.


But here is the rub regarding soybean prices that are holding up well compared to corn and wheat. In tomorrow's USDA grain report, my work suggests the the acreage figure for harvested soybeans will be 1.1 million or more. If so and if soybean yields are posted at 50.1 bushels per acre or higher, front month soybeans are headed to $8.80 at least.



Of course, there is no saying what surprises lurk hidden in USDA grain report. Generally speaking, there usually are surprises causing grain prices to shake, rattle and roll. The report tomorrow should be a bearish surprise and send all grains, led by soybeans into new lows.

Time will tell. And the time now is 10:05 a.m.Chicago

The data and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not

intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures

contracts. Although all information and opinions are believed to be reliable, we cannot

guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The open trade and previous recommendations

were suggested, but that does not necessarily mean any individual followed the trades

exactly as recommended. This newsletter has been prepared without regard to the specific

investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Past performance

is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a significant risk of loss associated with

trading futures and options. It should be noted that the impact on market prices due to seasonal

or market cycles and current news events may be reflected in current prices.





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About the author


Jerry Welch has been in the futures industry since the late 1970's and is a true veteran of the markets. He has been quoted often in Wall Street Journal and is author of Commodity Insite, one of the longest commodity futures newspaper columns in history. His weekly column has been published each week since the mid 1980's and is one of the most recognized names in the world of commodities.

Mr. Welch is also known widely as a, "so so" flyfisherman.  

His column is published by the Illinois Agri News in La Salle, Illinois, Cattle Today, in Fayette, Alabama as well as Consensus, in Kansas City, Kansas.

He can be contacted at 406.682.5010 for a view of his, "twice a day" market column that includes price forecasts and trading suggestions.

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