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Earnings Season Begins Tomorrow

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October 11, 2017


Dow Jones futures advanced to a new record high today, although futures are a little lower now. Recent strength is linked to the relatively low global interest rate structure and optimism about global economic growth.

Third quarter earnings season starts tomorrow. Analystsare anticipating another quarter of growth with the earnings growth estimate at 5.5%, while revenue growth is expected to be 4.3%.

The 9:00 central time August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which is the monthly change in job openings and offers rates on hiring and quits, is expected to be 6.16 million.

The computer models that I use continue to generate bullish signals for stock index futures.

The main trend for stock index futures is higher.


The U.S. dollar is lower and the euro currency is higher with the U.S. dollar trading near a two week low due to uncertainty over President Donald Trumps tax plan.

The euro currency hit a two week high as a result of relief that Catalonia stopped short of formally declaring independence from the rest of Spain. The euro was also supported by expectations that the European Central Bank will announce that it is scaling back its huge bond buying program when it holds its next policy meeting on October 26.

The Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar are higher due to firming crude oil prices.


Futures are steady to higher as a result of dovish comments from Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans earlier today during a speech in Zurich when he said one more rate increase before the end of 2017 isnt set in stone. He said, "It makes sense to continue to increase policy gradually as we assess whether inflation is going to get to the 2% objective."

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its September policy meeting at 1:00.

The U.S. central bank kept interest rates unchanged at its meeting in September and indicated that it still intended to hike rates in December, in spite of the sluggish inflation outlook. The Fed also announced that it would begin scaling back its $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October.

The Treasury will auction three and 10 year notes today.

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will speak at 1:40.

The Federal Reserve appears to be on track to raise its fed funds rate for a third time this year, and the fifth since late 2015, to a range of between 1.25% and 1.50%.

According to financial futures markets, the probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate at the December 13 meeting is 93%, which compares to 88% yesterday.

The long term fundamentals for futures are mixed.


December 17 S&P 500

Support 2541.00 Resistance 2553.00

December 17 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 92.730 Resistance 93.250

December 17 Euro Currency

Support 1.18310 Resistance 1.18980

December 17 Japanese Yen

Support .89030 Resistance .89550

December 17 Canadian Dollar

Support .79730 Resistance .80150

December 17 Australian Dollar

Support .7755 Resistance .7811

December 17 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 151^26 Resistance 153^0

December 17 Gold

Support 1285.0Resistance 1297.0

December 17 Copper

Support 3.0500 Resistance 3.0850

November 17 Crude Oil

Support 50.73 Resistance 51.78

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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About the author

Alan Bush has been a commodity analyst since 1976 focusing on the fundamental and technical aspects of stock index, interest rate and foreign currency markets. He has authored several articles for Stocks Futures and Options magazine and produced the “Futures Tech Focus” program, which is a technically based market outlook.

Alan served on the faculty of Oakton College as instructor of a course entitled, “Principles of Technical Analysis.” He has been interviewed on many national television programs, appearing on the Nightly Business Report, CNBC, CNN Moneyline, Reuters Television and Web FN. In addition, he has been frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The Bond Buyer and the Chicago Tribune and has been regularly interviewed on Chicago’s WMAQ radio business reports.

Alan can be reached at (312) 242-7911, or via email at

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