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Gold close to giving a bullish signal

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I'm bullish Gold and have been since late 2015. Gold price has made a long-term low in 2015 and I believe we are on our way towards $1,500-$1,600. Currently we have seen Gold rally back towards the November 2016 highs and reverse back below $1,300. If you have been following my tweeter feedhere you were warned at $1,350 for a justified pull back towards $1,300. I did not expect Gold to fall below $1,290 but it seems that price was magnetised by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from $1,205 to $1,355.

Support by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement held and the weekly candle had also a bullish long lower tail to make it a bullish reversal hammer. The following week, the one we are currently in, confirms this bullish reversal as price is testing $1,300 again. In the chart below you will see why Bulls want to see $1,295-$1,300 retaken and price to hold above it.

Every time for the last 10 months we saw price convincingly break above and stay above the EMA13 and EMA34, an upward move of at least 35$ followed. Price is making higher highs and higher lows. Trend is bullish in Gold as long as price remains above $1,205. With Gold price preparing the next big upward move, I expect the $1,260 low to become as important as the $1,205 one.

Gold price has reversed by making a low last week. Confirmation of the importance of that low will come once we get the new buy signal. A rejection at the $1,295-$1,300 will probably bring a shallow retracement. If not, expect price to test $1,260 and break it. Next important support level is at $1,240. I give very little chances of seeing that level. Breaking above $1,300 will decrease the chances of seeing $1,240 even more.

Thank you for taking the time to catch up on my thinking.

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About the author

Alexandros has been actively trading for more than 15 years. After successfully completing his MSC degree in International Securities Investment and Banking in one of the top European Business Schools, he became a certified derivatives trader in the Greek Stock market.

Shortly after he started working on the fx and international securities desk of a brokerage company, while passing his exams to become a Portfolio Manager. He is now working as head of the Portfolio Management team in one of the Greece's top brokers, trading in the Greek and international exchanges.  Alexandros has also been running his own personal website, providing analysis for more than 5 years and has been active on twitter sharing his views in real time to his more than 4000 followers.

Alexandros is also working as a daily analyst for Gold and the Dollar index for InstaForex Company. His main tools are Ichimoku clouds, classical technical analysis and Elliott waves, while scanning 4hour, daily and weekly charts.


Contributing author since 10/10/2017 

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