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Morning Softs Report 10/10/17

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General Comments: Cotton was slightly higher in consolidation trading.The market is waiting for news, and might have to wait for USDA and the latest production and supply and demand reports on Thursday before moving too much. It was a holiday here yesterday, wo the weekly crop progress and conditions reports will be released this afternoon. Ideas are that the recent weather has been good for maturing crops and harvest activities. Hurricane Nate apparently did no real damage, although the rains might slow the harvest in some areas The harvest ahead seems to be the most important factor as USDA is expecting a huge crop, but storms have damaged production potential since the last report and USDA weekly condition reports have reflected some deterioration. The charts suggest that futures can trade between 6500 and 7500 for a while. Bolls are opening and harvest is expanding under relatively good conditions as it has been relatively dry.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should see some precipitation today, then dry weather. Temperatures should average above normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be below normal today and tomorrow, then near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 67.43 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 5,445 bales, from 5,445 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6780, 6740, and 6700 December, with resistance of 6930, 6970, and 7000 December.

Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Oct 9 2017 13:40:00
Cotton Production, Inventory Survey Before USDA WASDE Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a Bloomberg News survey
of as many as eight analysts for the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand
report on the 2017-18 cotton crop, which is scheduled for release at noon in
Washington on Oct. 12. Figures are in millions of bales.
|——Survey Results——|USDA Priors
2017-18:| Avg | Low | High | Sept. | 2016-17
US Production | 21.2| 20.2| 21.5| 21.8| 17.2
US Exports | 14.6| 14.0| 15.0| 14.9| 14.9
US End Stocks | 5.7| 5.2| 6.3| 6.0| 2.8
World Production | 120.1| 118.8| 121.5| 120.8| 106.7
World Consumption| 117.9| 117.5| 118.3| 117.8| 113.7
World End Stocks | 92.0| 90.6| 93.0| 92.5| 89.6
Analyst |————–U.S.————-|——World—-
| | | End
Estimates: | Production | Exports |Stocks | Production | Consumption |Stocks
Doane | 21.3| 14.9| 5.8| 121.5| 118.0| 93.0
Love | | | | | |
Consulting | 21.0| 15.0| 5.4| 120.0| 118.0| 91.6
Price Futures| | | | | |
Group | 21.5| 14.9| 5.5|n/a |n/a |n/a
Rabobank | 21.1| 14.0| 6.3| 118.8| 117.8| 90.6
Rose | | | | | |
Consulting | 21.2| 14.5| 5.6| 120.0| 118.3| 92.3
Texas A&M; | | | | | |
Robinson | 21.5| 14.7| 6.1| 121.0| 117.8| 92.8
Tullet Prebon| 21.5| 14.5| 5.9|n/a |n/a |n/a
Wedbush | | | | | |
Securities | 20.2| 14.0| 5.2| 119.5| 117.5| 91.5
SOURCE: Bloomberg News

General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher as traders started to prepare for the USDA production reports that will be released on Thursday. The market expects USDA to show significant damage to the Oranges crops in Florida.. Ideas remain that the Orange groves are badly damaged in Florida due to Irma. Crops in many areas were almost completely destroyed. Other areas suffered losses of 50% or more of the crop. Some growers say that trees will be stressed again next year due to the winds and rains from Irma. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US. Trees that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition and production estimates are climbing after recent rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get daily chances for showers and storms and near to above normal temperatures. Some big rain totals are possible. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 165.00 November. Support is at 155.00, 150.00, and 146.00 November, with resistance at 160.00, 165.00, and 168.00 November.

DJ USDA October 2017-18 Florida Orange Crop Estimate — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of boxes, for 2017-18 U.S. Florida orange production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal ahead of the October forecasts by the federal government.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated estimates at noon ET Thursday.
Average Range USDA 2016-2017
Production (5) 50.60 31.00-62.50 68.70
J. Ganes Consulting 58.00 51.00
Kerr Trading 50.50
Price Futures Group 62.50
Florida Citrus Mutual 31.00

General Comments: New York closed higher on speculative buying tied to questions about the flowering in Brazil and the dry weather that continues in many Coffee growing areas there. London closed lower despite news of lower exports from Vietnam. The recent rains in Brazil has promoted flowering for the next crop, and the flowering seems to be very good. However, it is dry again now and there are no real forecasts for a wet period for the next week or so. Most areas will need to see some consistent rainfall now to keep the potential for a big crop alive as trees need to recover from stress from the production year last year and also the cold and dry Winter. The weather in Brazil and the condition of the trees is getting attention as La Nina is coming and Coffee areas are already dry. There will be a lot of talk about the rains and what it means to production potential for the next few weeks.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are slightly higher today and are about 1.846 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 122.79 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers and storms, but less intense as Nate moves north. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 129.00, 126.00, and 124.00 December, and resistance is at 133.00, 136.00 and 139.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1990, 1960, and 1950 November, and resistance is at 2030, 2040, and 2060 November.

General Comments: Futures were mixed in both New York and mixed to lower in London as the market waits for new UNICA data on the Brazil harvest and crushing pace that should be released later this week. The market has been holding Support, but has not given any buy signal on the daily charts. There was additional talk of improved demand for White Sugar in world markets as London has suddenly become the stronger market. The fundamental side of the market is not apparently price positive due to ideas of big world production. There were more rains in southern Brazil production areas through the weekend, and some of the totals were big. These rains could cause problems if they continue. The rains come as the market thinks more and more about La Nina and the potential for drought in pasts of Brazil this year. Upside price potential is limited as there are still projections for a surplus in the world production,and these projections for the surplus seem to be bigger. Trends are sideways in both markets.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature warm and dry weather.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1370 and 1280 March. Support is at 1380, 1350, and 1320 March, and resistance is at 1450, 1470, and 1490 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 368.00, 359.00, and 354.00 December, and resistance is at 380.00, 384.00, and 391.00 December.

Brazil center-south produces 2.848 million tonnes of sugar in 2nd half of Sep – Reuters News
10-Oct-2017 08:59:26 AM
SÃO PAULO, Oct 10 (Reuters) – Brazil’s center-south region produced 2.848 million tonnes of sugar in the second half of September, compared to 3.126 million tonnes in the previous two-week period, cane industry group Unica said on Tuesday.
Mills in the main cane belt in Brazil crushed 40.309 million tonnes of cane versus 45.44 million tonnes in the first half of the month, Unica said.

General Comments: Futures closed sharply lower yesterday, and short-term trends turned down with the price action. The selling came as spectators sold the market in anticipation of the European grind data that will be released this week. World production ideas remain high. Harvest reports show good to very good production will be seen this year in West Africa. Ghana and Ivory Coast expects a very good crop this year. Nigeria and Cameroon are reporting good yields on the initial harvest, and also good quality. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East African could use more rain, but Cocoa is growing. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia. Traders talk of increased demand to go against big world production as prices are now attractive for grinders and chocolate manufacturers. New grind data should be released starting next week.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.467 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2010 and 1960 December. Support is at 2000, 1990, and 1970 December, with resistance at 2060, 2100, and 2110 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1490, 1460, and 1380 December. Support is at 1520, 1480, and 1460 December, with resistance at 1570, 1590, and 1620 December.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

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About the author

Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at

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