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Morning Softs Report 10/06/17

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General Comments: Cotton was lower as Tropical Storm Nate has formed off the coast of Central America. It ould became a hurricane before hitting the southern US starting Sunday. However, it is not expected to be very damaging to crops. Ideas are that the current weather is good for maturing crops and harvest activities. The harvest ahead seems to be the most important factor as USDA is expecting a huge crop, but storms have damaged production potential since the last report and USDA weekly condition reports have reflected some deterioration. The charts suggest that futures can trade between 6500 and 7500 for a while. Bolls are opening and harvest is expanding under relatively good conditions as it has been relatively dry.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should see some precipitation this weekend. Temperatures should average above normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 66.87 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 5,444 bales, from 4,717 bales yesterday. ICE said that 3 contracts were posted for delivery against October futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 34 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6790, 6740, and 6700 December, with resistance of 6930, 6970, and 7000 December.

General Comments: FCOJ closed high again on follow through buying on ideas that the crop losses in Florida are very big. Another storm is forming off the cast of Central America and could bring more rains to the southern US, but for now looks to stay away from most of Florida. Ideas remain that the Orange groves are badly damaged in Florida due to Irma. Crops in many areas were almost completely destroyed. Other areas suffered losses of 50% or more of the crop. Some growers say that trees will be stressed again next year due to the winds and rains from Irma. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US. Trees that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition and production estimates are climbing after recent rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get daily chances for showers and storms and near to above normal temperatures. Some big rain totals are possible. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 150.00, 146.00, and 142.00 November, with resistance at 160.00, 165.00, and 166.00 November.

General Comments: New York closed higher, and New York has left a potential doublé lo won the daily charts. London closed a little lower. The recent rains should promote flowering for the next crop. There should be enough precipitation to create new flowering in the next week or so, and some expect very good flowering to be seen. However, it is dry again now and there are no real forecasts for a wet period for the next week or so. Some producers expect a very good flowing after the rain, while others say the rains were not enough. The weather in Brazil and the condition of the trees is getting attention as La Nina is coming and Coffee areas are already dry. There will be a lot of talk about the rains and what it means to production potential for the next few weeks.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.841 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 120.36 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers and storms, but less intense as Nate moves north. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 124.00, 119.00, and 116.00 December, and resistance is at 130.00, 133.00 and 136.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2030 and 2090 November. Support is at 1990, 1960, and 1950 November, and resistance is at 2040, 2060, and 2080 November.

General Comments: Futures were higher in both New York and London and held support areas on the charts. There was some talk of improved demand for White Sugar in world markets as London has suddenly become the stronger market. Futures in both markets are in a range. Even professional Sugar traders do not seem sure of what to do, although the fundamental side of the market is not apparently price positive due to ideas of big world production. There were more rains in Brazil production areas through the weekend, and some good rains were reported in southern growing areas. The rains were welcome as it has been hot and dry. Drier weather is expected for the rest of the week and into the weekend. The rains come as the market thinks more and more about La Nina and the potential for drought in pasts of Brazil this year. Upside price potential is limited as there are still projections for a surplus in the world production,and these projections for the surplus seem to be bigger. Trends are sideways in both markets.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature warm and dry weather.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1400, 1380, and 1350 March, and resistance is at 1470, 1490, and 1520 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 372.00, 359.00, and 354.00 December, and resistance is at 384.00, 391.00, and 404.00 December.

General Comments: Futures closed higher and the overall price action remains strong. The rally is coming as both Ivory Coast and Ghana look for ways to increase prices paid to farmers. World production ideas remain high. Harvest reports show good to very good production will be seen this year in West Africa. Ghana also expects a good crop this year. Nigeria and Cameroon are reporting good yields on the initial harvest, and also good quality. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East African could use more rain, but Cocoa is growing. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia. Traders talk of increased demand to go against big world production as prices are now attractive for grinders and chocolate manufacturers. New grind data should be released starting next week.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.512 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2100 and 2200 December. Support is at 2050, 2020, and 2000 December, with resistance at 2100, 2110, and 2130 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1620 December. Support is at 1550, 1520, and 1480 December, with resistance at 1590, 1620, and 1650 December.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

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About the author

Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at

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