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Morning Softs Report 10/03/2017

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General Comments: Cotton was lower and trends started to turn down due to the price action. Futures broke some Support areas due to good harvest weather and the stronger US Dollar that could hurt imports. Ideas are that the weather is good for maturing crops and harvest activities, but the harvest pace was very slow last week. The harvest ahead seems to be the most important factor as USDA is expecting a huge crop, but storms have damaged production potential since the last report and USDA weekly condition reports have reflected some deterioration. The charts suggest that futures can trade between 6500 and 7500 for a while, so for now futures appear headed for a test of the lower end of the projected trading range. Bolls are opening and harvest is expanding under relatively good conditions as it has been relatively dry.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should be mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Texas will see chances for showers on Wednesday and Thursday, otherwise dry conditions. Temperatures will be near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 66.93 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 3,827 bales, from 3,860 bales yesterday. ICE said that 1 contract was posted for delivery against October futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 22 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 67640 and 6580 December. Support is at 6750, 6700, and 6660 December, with resistance of 6850, 6930, and 6970 December.

Crop Progress
Date 1-Oct 24-Sep 2016 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 67 57 70 70
Cotton Harvested 17 14 15 13
Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Cotton This Week 7 9 27 42 15
Cotton Last Week 6 8 26 43 17
Cotton Last Year 3 12 36 39 100

General Comments: FCOJ closed higher as traders continue to learn just how devastating Hurricane Irma was for crops. Ideas remain that the Orange groves are badly damaged in Florida due to Irma. New reports from growers associations suggest that crops in many areas were almost completely destroyed. Other areas suffered losses of 50% or more of the crop. Some growers say that trees will be stressed again next year due to the winds and rains from Irma. Florida weather is now drier. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US. Trees that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition and production estimates are climbing after recent rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get daily chances for showers and storms and near to above normal temperatures. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 150.00, 146.00, and 142.00 November, with resistance at 157.00, 159.00, and 160.00 November.

General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed higher as precipitation was reported in Coffee areas of Brazil. The rains would promote flowering for the next crop and might save some flowers that came from some early rains several weeks ago. There should be enough precipitation to create new flowering in the next week or so. But, it all depends on who is talking as some producers expect a very good flowing after the rain, while others say the rains were not enough. FC Stone in Brazil toured Coffee areas last week and noted defoliation of the trees. The problem was severe enough that they do not appear ready to Support ideas of top production for the coming year, perhaps no matter how good it rains from no one. The weather in Brazil and the condition of the trees is getting attention as La Nina is coming and Coffee areas are already dry. These rains should mark the end of the dry season and the start of the rainy season. There will be a lot of talk about the rains and what it means to production potential for the next few weeks.. The cash market remains quiet and tight. Production for the next crop is starting to be offered in Central America as the harvest has started.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.809 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 120.48 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 126.00, 119.00, and 116.00 December, and resistance is at 133.00, 136.00 and 139.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1950, 1920, and 1910 November, and resistance is at 1990, 2010, and 2040 November.

General Comments: Futures were higher in both New York and London after starting the day lower. The deliveries were big, but appeared to find strong homes. There were more rains in Brazil production areas through the weekend, and some good rains were reported in southern growing areas. It is a sign that the rainy season is coming and ideas are that production potential for Brazil can now start to improve. The rains will be welcome as it has been hot and dry. Drier weather is expected for the rest of the week once the rains fade today. The rains come as the market thinks more and more about La Nina and the potential for drought in pasts of Brazil this year. Upside price potential is limited as there are still projections for a surplus in the world production,and these projections for the surplus seem to be bigger. Trends are sideways in both markets.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature warm and dry weather. ICE said that 21,098 contracts of Raw Sugar were delivered today against New York October Contracts. The Sugar all came from Brazil.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1400, 1380, and 1350 March, and resistance is at 1470, 1490, and 1520 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 359.00, 354.00, and 348.00 December, and resistance is at 372.00, 375.00, and 384.00 December.

General Comments: Futures closed higher after trading lower in the first part of the day. It was a strong rebound after prices held chart Support in both New York and London. The charts once again suggest that a bigger rally could be coming in the short-term.. Futures are now at the higher end of the range and any new buying early this week could trigger a Sharp short covering rally. World production ideas remain high. Harvest reports show good to very good production will be seen this year in West Africa. Ghana also expects a good crop this year. Nigeria and Cameroon are reporting good yields on the initial harvest. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East African could use more rain, but Cocoa is growing. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia. Traders talk of increased demand to go against big world production as prices are now attractive for grinders and chocolate manufacturers. New grind data should be released later this month.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.593 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1990, 1970, and 1960 December, with resistance at 2050, 2090, and 2110 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1480, 1460, and 1450 December, with resistance at 1550, 1570, and 1590 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

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About the author

Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at

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