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USDA REPORT FOR 9/29/17


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Corn Stocks Up 32 Percent from September 2016

Soybean Stocks Up 53 Percent

All Wheat Stocks Down 11 Percent

Old crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2017 totaled

2.29 billion bushels, up 32 percent from September 1, 2016. Of the total

stocks, 787 million bushels are stored on farms, up 25 percent from a year

earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 1.51 billion bushels, are up 36 percent from a

year ago. The June - August 2017 indicated disappearance is 2.93 billion

bushels, compared with 2.97 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2017 totaled

301 million bushels, up 53 percent from September 1, 2016. Soybean stocks

stored on farms totaled 87.9 million bushels, up 112 percent from a year ago.

Off-farm stocks, at 213 million bushels, are up 38 percent from last

September. Indicated disappearance for June - August 2017 totaled 665 million

bushels, down 2 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance

data for exports and crushings, and farm program administrative data, the

2016 soybean production is revised down 10.6 million bushels from the

previous estimate. Planted area is unchanged at 83.4 million acres, and

harvested area is revised down 40,000 acres to 82.7 million acres. The 2016

yield, at 52.0 bushels per acre, is down 0.1 bushel from the previous

estimate. A table with 2016 acreage, yield, and production estimates by

States is included on page 17 of this report.

All wheat stored in all positions on September 1, 2017 totaled 2.25 billion

bushels, down 11 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at

489 million bushels, down 33 percent from last September. Off-farm stocks, at

1.76 billion bushels, are down 3 percent from a year ago. The

June - August 2017 indicated disappearance is 668 million bushels, down

10 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Durum wheat stocks in all positions on September 1, 2017 totaled 63.9 million

bushels, down 30 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 31.1 million

bushels, are down 53 percent from September 1, 2016. Off-farm stocks totaled

32.8 million bushels, up 24 percent from a year ago. The June - August 2017

indicated disappearance of 27.3 million bushels is down 31 percent from the

same period a year earlier.

Barley stocks in all positions on September 1, 2017 totaled 180 million

bushels, down 22 percent from September 1, 2016. On-farm stocks are estimated

at 89.4 million bushels, 32 percent below a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at

90.2 million bushels, are 10 percent below September 2016. The

June - August 2017 indicated disappearance is 68.7 million bushels, 4 percent

below the same period a year earlier.

Oats stored in all positions on September 1, 2017 totaled 71.8 million

bushels, 9 percent below the stocks on September 1, 2016. Of the total stocks

on hand, 33.7 million bushels are stored on farms, 10 percent lower than a

year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 38.1 million bushels, 7 percent below the

previous year. Indicated disappearance during June - August 2017 totaled

27.9 million bushels, compared with 43.0 million bushels during the same

period a year ago.

Old crop grain sorghum stored in all positions on September 1, 2017 totaled

33.5 million bushels, down 8 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at

4.28 million bushels, are up 14 percent from last year. Off-farm stocks, at

29.3 million bushels, are down 11 percent from September 1, 2016. The

June - August 2017 indicated disappearance from all positions is 51.2 million

bushels, down 5 percent from the same period a year ago.

Old crop sunflower stocks in all positions on September 1, 2017 totaled

649 million pounds, up 57 percent from a year ago. All stocks stored on farms

totaled 134 million pounds and off-farm stocks totaled 515 million pounds.

Stocks of oil type sunflower seed are 495 million pounds; of this total,

115 million pounds are on-farm stocks and 379 million pounds are off-farm

stocks. Non-oil sunflower stocks totaled 154 million pounds, with

18.9 million pounds stored on the farm and 135 million pounds stored off the

farm.

This report was approved on September 29, 2017.

Statistical Methodology

Survey Procedures: The grain stocks estimates in this report are based on

surveys conducted during the first two weeks of September. Separate surveys

are conducted to obtain the on-farm and off-farm estimates. The on-farm

stocks survey is a probability survey that includes a sample of approximately

66,200 farm operators selected from a list of producers that ensures all

operations in the United States have a chance to be selected. These producers

are asked to provide the total quantities of grain stored on their operations

as of September 1, 2017. This includes all whole grains and oilseeds stored

whether for feed, seed, or sale as well as any stored under a government

program.

The off-farm stocks survey is an enumeration of all known commercial grain

storage facilities. This includes approximately 8,500 facilities with

11.1 billion bushels of storage capacity. An effort is made to obtain a

report from all facilities. Reports of stock holdings are normally received

from operations covering about 90 percent of the capacity. Estimates are made

for missing facilities to make the survey complete.

Estimation Procedures: On-farm and off-farm survey data are reviewed at the

State and National levels for reasonableness, consistency with historical

estimates, and current crop size. After estimates are made for on-farm and

off-farm stocks, the totals of these two are combined and evaluated using the

balance sheet approach. This method utilizes other sources of data to check

the reasonableness of the stocks estimates. Estimates of production, imports,

exports, crushings, millings, and all other recorded uses of grains and

oilseeds are reviewed to make sure beginning stocks, production, utilization,

and ending stocks are within reasonable balance and present the best possible

estimate of stocks.

Revision Policy: On-farm and off-farm stocks are subject to revision the

quarter following initial publication and again in the following December 1

Grain Stocks report published in January each year. Revisions can be made

when late reports are received, errors are detected in reporting and

calculations, and production estimates are revised. Estimates will also be

reviewed following the 5-year Census of Agriculture. No revisions to these

years will be made after that date.

Reliability: Reliability of the on-farm and off-farm stocks must be treated

separately because the survey designs for the two surveys are very different.

The on-farm stocks estimates are subject to sampling variability because all

operations holding on-farm stocks are not included in the sample. This

variability, as measured by the relative standard error at the United States

level, is approximately 3.2 percent for corn, 6.6 percent for soybeans, and

3.1 percent for all wheat. This means that chances are approximately 95 out

of 100 that survey estimates for stocks will be within plus or minus

6.4 percent for corn, 13.2 percent for soybeans, and 6.2 percent for all

wheat of the value that could be developed by averaging the estimates

produced from all possible samples selected from the same population and

surveyed using the same procedures. The relative standard errors for sorghum,

barley, and oats are 18.6, 5.0, and 3.6 percent, respectively.

Survey indications are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission,

duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting,

recording, and processing the data. Off-farm, as well as on-farm stocks, are

subject to these types of errors. These errors cannot be measured directly,

but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection

process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and

reasonableness.


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About the author


Currently a member of The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a floor broker and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA). I started my career in 1973 on The Chicago Mercantile Exchange trading floor working for a major firm. Three years later I purchased my first membership and began what would become a thirteen-year commitment to trading soybeans for my own account on the trading floor. I began trading options on futures since their inception in Chicago about twenty years ago; doing so, I traded in various pits on the trade floor. 

One of the major lessons that I have learned from all my years of experience is that knowledge is an important condition for the possibility of successful trading. Knowledge gives you a better chance to succeed by eliminating obvious mistakes: with it, you will never find yourself shamefully uttering, “If I only took the time to learn”.  
         
I want to save you from such regrets by teaching you where the danger is, what it looks like, and how to go around it, while still keeping an eye on your destination of success. In short, I will teach you how to combat error with knowledge.
       
My mission is to educate you, giving you my 45 years experience, wisdom, and knowledge from which you will then be able to use and benefit from at will.

I know what will help you make money, and I know what will insure failure. Use my services and prevent, “If I only knew”.  
  

Howard Tyllas

Futures trading involves the substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not mean future results.

If you have a question or comment, email me dailynumbers@futuresflight.com

Visit my website www.futuresflight.com

                                                 

                        

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