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Morning Softs. 09/05/17


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Subject: informs’ September crop production numbers 9/1/17
Informal has a Sep corn yield of 169.2 and a crop of 14.123 bil bu
Beans 49.4 with a crop of 4.384 bil
Their 169.2 compares to USDA corn yield of 169.5 and production 14.153
Their 49.4 bean yield compares to USDA’s 49.4 and production of 4.381 bil
All cotton 890 yield with production at 21,248
Rice 7487 yield; production 180

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher as the market tried to assess the damage to crops due to Hurricane Harvey. Futures made new highs for the move and broke above resistance left from the August highs. Trends turned up again on Friday with the move to new highs. Texas crops potentially lost the quality and harvest progress in some areas of the state. No one is willing to say if any Cotton was lost or how much was lost, but most of the losses would come from unharvest Cotton and Cotton in storage in Texas and a Little bit in Louisiana. Reports indicate that about 600,000 acres of high quality Cotton could be damaged or destroyed in southern parts of the state, but most ideas are that 300,000 acres or less will be lost. There is talk that at least 400,000 bales of Cotton were destroyed in the storm. Cotton in the Texas Panhandle was not affected in any big way, and Cotton in most of the Delta and Southeast should have escaped damage and loss. The growing weather in the US Delta and Southeast is generally good, and conditions in the Texas Panhandle and Southwest are rated mostly good. Bolls are forming and starting to open in many areas.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to below normal in the Delta and near to above normal in the Southeast. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be variable. The USDA average price is now 70.96 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 8,777 bales, from 9,293 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7500, and 7580 December. Support is at 7120, 7040, and 7030 December, with resistance of 7220, 7280, and 7320 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 29, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 276,760
: Positions :
: 60,647 28,558 57,014 69,131 171,213 76,705 4,867 263,496 261,652: 13,264 15,108
: Changes from: August 22, 2017 (Change in open interest: 1,379) :
: 2,100 -8,816 1,744 -1,672 9,394 -1,093 474 1,079 2,795: 300 -1,416
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.9 10.3 20.6 25.0 61.9 27.7 1.8 95.2 94.5: 4.8 5.5
: Total Traders: 275 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 93 71 89 59 64 26 14 224 199:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: : FCOJ closed higher on Friday and a little higher for the week as some tropical storms threaten to hit the US. Irma has formed in the Atlantic and has the potential to move into Florida. The storm is still several days away from hitting the USD, and there is potential for a front to move south and east from the Midwest this week to protect the eastern seaboard. Both the daily and weekly charts show sideways trends. The market price remains generally weak due to ideas of better production potential for the coming harvest and reports of weak demand. Florida weather until now is very good as it is now drier, but showers are still around. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US. Trees now are showing fruit of good sizes and overall conditions are called good. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition and production estimates are climbing after recent rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers and storms and near to above normal temperatures. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against September contracts today and that total deliveries are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 133.00, 132.00, and 129.00 November, with resistance at 138.00, 140.00, and 142.00 November.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack – Sep 1
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 8/26/2017
Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
8/26/2017 8/27/2016 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 176.94 237.12 -25.4%
Retail/Institutional 6.29 6.43 -2.3%
Total 183.22 243.55 -24.8%
Pack
Bulk 0.88 1.89 -53.6%
Retail/Institutional 1.26 1.49 -15.2%
Total Pack 2.14 3.38 -36.7%
Reprocessed -2.14 -3.38 -36.7%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 (0.00) 0.0%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.25 0.02 1070.2%
Imports – Foreign 3.34 2.83 18.0%
Domestic Receipts – – NC
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entity 0.14 – NA
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.01 0.04 -81.1%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.03 0.03 14.2%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 178.96 238.55 -25.0%
Retail/Institutional 7.55 7.92 -4.7%
Total 186.51 246.47 -24.3%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 4.61 4.26 8.1%
Exports 0.21 0.17 20.8%
Total (Bulk) 4.81 4.43 8.6%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.41 1.76 -19.7%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.41 1.76 -19.7%
Total Movement 6.23 6.19 0.6%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 174.14 234.12 -25.6%
Retail/Institutional 6.14 6.16 -0.4%
Ending Inventory 180.28 240.28 -25.0%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
26-Aug-17 27-Aug-16 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 212.24 281.45 -24.6%
Retail/Institutional 6.78 7.81 -13.2%
Total 219.03 289.26 -24.3%
Pack
Bulk 157.72 176.93 -10.9%
Retail/Institutional 64.77 72.69 -10.9%
Total Pack 222.49 249.62 -10.9%
Reprocessed -148.03 -157.07 -5.8%
Pack from Fruit 74.46 92.55 -19.5%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -4.26 -1.20 254.1%
Imports – Foreign 214.47 177.14 21.1%
Domestic Receipts 6.81 12.51 -45.5%
Receipts of Florida Product 3.12 0.22 1303.1%
from Non-Reporting Entity 2.57 5.53 -53.5%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 2.72 3.31 -17.9%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 447.37 498.82 -10.3%
Retail/Institutional 71.55 80.50 -11.1%
Total 518.92 579.32 -10.4%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 212.60 222.95 -4.6%
Domestic 60.63 41.75 45.2%
Exports 273.23 264.70 3.2%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 65.42 74.34 -12.0%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 65.42 74.34 -12.0%
Total Movement 338.64 339.04 -0.1%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 174.14 234.12 -25.6%
Retail/Institutional 6.14 6.16 -0.4%
Ending Inventory 180.28 240.28 -25.0%

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 29, 2017
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,477 :
: Positions :
: 5,676 4,045 1,397 0 0 545 4,807 105 742 491 1,521 :
: Changes from: August 22, 2017 :
: -152 -202 152 0 0 -260 217 18 100 -110 -14 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 45.5 32.4 11.2 0.0 0.0 4.4 38.5 0.8 5.9 3.9 12.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 68 :
: 21 13 5 0 0 7 12 . 11 9 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower in quiet trading. There have been some rains and flowering has been reported in Brazil. Pictures circulated on the internet show that flowering is off to a very good start. Coffee areas are dry again, and some producers are worried that the rains came too early and created premature flowering. The flowers could die and fall and that would mean yield losses for affected trees. Commercials are said to be the best buyers. The cash market remains very quiet. Ideas of smaller offers from Brazil and the rest of Latin America go against ideas of weaker demand. Seasonal chart studies suggest that a rally in Coffee futures is likely in the coming weeks
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.715 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 122.20 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against September contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 564 contracts
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 127.00, 126.00, and 119.00 December, and resistance is at 132.00, 133.00 and 135.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2060, 2030, and 1980 November, and resistance is at 2120, 2140, and 2150 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 29, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 227,489
: Positions :
: 31,475 57,837 54,408 84,843 95,600 45,488 11,786 216,214 219,631: 11,275 7,858
: Changes from: August 22, 2017 (Change in open interest: 12,519) :
: 1,209 8,560 5,241 5,219 -1,585 60 332 11,728 12,548: 791 -29
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.8 25.4 23.9 37.3 42.0 20.0 5.2 95.0 96.5: 5.0 3.5
: Total Traders: 434 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 125 133 139 121 106 28 13 348 328:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/29/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
121,859 55,937 74,523 4,622 7,153 2,489
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 45.9% 61.2% 3.8% 5.9% 2.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
150 51 47 11 9 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
27,615 6,938 13,168 2,052 2,745 10,013
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
22.7% 5.7% 10.8% 1.7% 2.3% 8.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
36 11 17 10 10 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,963 4,830
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.9% 4.0%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were lower on reports of increased producer selling and in response to the weakness in petroleum futures. The problems around Houston were expected to start to improve over the weekend as the weather has turned drier. Further improvement in conditions for reopening petroleum refineries is expected this week. Ideas are that higher petroleum prices that are likely from the hurricane in Houston could mean more demand for ethanol. The market expects firmer prices over time in part due to the moves in Brazil to increase ethanol production through higher gas prices and as the Indian harvest could be delayed due to wet conditions that would delay sugarcane harvesting. Trends have turned mixed after the Price weakness on Friday. Production potential in Thailand seems strong as monsoon rains have been better than last year. It is raining in much of India now as the monsoon is active, and reports indicate good to heavy rains in many areas. Thailand is getting rains and production ideas are high. The rest of Southeast Asia is seeing average to above average rains so far this year.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature warm and dry weather for the next week.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1430, 1410, and 1380 March, and resistance is at 1500, 1550, and 1580 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 371.00, 366.00, and 360.00 December, and resistance is at 384.00, 391.00, and 404.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 29, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,004,020
: Positions :
: 119,493 240,448 223,072 373,653 434,920 213,744 34,817 929,961 933,257: 74,059 70,763
: Changes from: August 22, 2017 (Change in open interest: 2,464) :
: 1,854 -4,155 -2,611 124 14,245 -1,152 352 -1,785 7,830: 4,249 -5,366
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.9 23.9 22.2 37.2 43.3 21.3 3.5 92.6 93.0: 7.4 7.0
: Total Traders: 254 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 67 87 82 75 23 13 215 206:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures
Commitments of Traders-All Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/29/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures – ICE Futures Europe
95,106 52,851 53,913 12,900 13,003 1,341
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 55.6% 56.7% 13.6% 13.7% 1.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
144 56 52 13 5 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
14,552 13,264 5,084 2,319 341 2,413
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
15.3% 13.9% 5.3% 2.4% 0.4% 2.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
17 24 13 7 5 7
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,646 5,747
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.8% 6.0%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher on Friday and higher for the week. Futures still show that the market is in a broad trading range and is now pushing to the upper end of the range. Ivory Coast has now sold 1.32 million tons of Cocoa from the next crop into the world market, so part of the production in all of West Africa is now priced. It also means less selling pressure is coming at and after the main crop harvest this Fall. The charts suggest that a short-term bottom has formed and traders talk now of increased demand to go against big world production as prices are now attractive for grinders and chocolate manufacturers. The market is between harvests from West Africa Ivory Coast is expected to have a big crop starting harvest this Fall, but smaller than last year. Ghana also expects a good crop this year. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East African could use more rain, but Cocoa is growing. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.989 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against September contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 839 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2090 December. Support is at 1940, 1920, and 1900 December, with resistance at 2010, 2030, and 2040 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1500, 1480, and 1460 December, with resistance at 1570, 1590, and 1620 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 29, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 272,659
: Positions :
: 46,252 91,228 54,366 118,327 102,763 35,400 14,500 254,344 262,857: 18,315 9,802
: Changes from: August 22, 2017 (Change in open interest: 8,198) :
: 233 -2,341 3,773 6,124 8,110 -2,159 -1,520 7,970 8,022: 228 176
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.0 33.5 19.9 43.4 37.7 13.0 5.3 93.3 96.4: 6.7 3.6
: Total Traders: 263 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 92 75 85 48 40 25 11 209 176:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/29/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
327,069 199,796 168,571 21,920 24,613 31,214
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 61.1% 51.5% 6.7% 7.5% 9.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
157 52 46 18 10 14
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
14,131 40,648 26,143 2,007 481 28,478
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.3% 12.4% 8.0% 0.6% 0.1% 8.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
18 28 16 11 8 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,379 6,919
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.0% 2.1%

DJ Cameroon’s Cocoa Output Plummets While Exports Rise on Year — Update
By Emmanuel Tumanjong
YAOUNDE, Cameroon–Cameroon’s 2016/2017 seasonal cocoa output plunged 14% while its exports of the beans rose 5%, industry numbers showed Monday.
For the 2016/2017 season, which runs from August to July, cocoa production stood at 231,642 tons, having fallen 14% from 269,000 tons, according to a statement from Michael Ndoping, managing director of the country’s cocoa and coffee board.
Mr. Ndoping attributed the decreased harvest to illegal cross-border trade between Nigeria and Cameroon, as well as the fraudulent exporting of cocoa at the Cameroonian port of Douala.
Meanwhile, the cocoa-bean exports of Africa’s third-largest cocoa producer stood at 197,365 metric tons, 5% up last season, Mr. Ndoping said.
Counting on good weather, Cameroon trade minister Luc Magloire Mbarga Atangana had previously forecast the cocoa harvest to come in at 300,000 tons in the 2016/2017 season, as the government pushed ahead with the plan to take annual output to a record 600,000 tons by 2020.

DJ Cocoa Prices Steady After ICCO Forecast Update — Market Talk
0920 GMT – London-traded cocoa futures have relinquished their early morning gains and now sit 0.2% lower at GBP1519 a ton. This, after the International Cocoa Organization released updated forecasts for global supply in 2016/17 late Thursday, trimming its forecast for global surplus to 371,000 tons from 382,000 tons. That revision includes an uptick in forecast 2016/17 cocoa grinding, which the ICCO increases by 0.02 million tons to 4.28 million — which would constitute a 3.7% increase on the previous October-September season. Asia, Oceania, and Africa are key drivers of those higher grinding forecasts, the ICCO says. The body also ups its expectations for global production by 8,000 tons to 4.7 million tons — constituting an 18.1% year-on-year increase — and for the Ivory Coast to 2.01 million tons. That would see year-on-year growth of 27.2% for the Ivorian crop.(david.hodari@wsj.com; @davidhodari)
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

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