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Morning Softs. 08/28/17


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COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was sharply lower after failing at resistance areas on the daily charts near 7000 December. Some long liquidation and new selling was seen as traders got ready for the arrival of Hurricane Harvey. The storm was expected to bring big rains of up to three feet into Texas and potentially hurt the quality and harvest progress in some areas of the state. Reports indicate that about 600,000 acres of high quality Cotton could be damaged or destroyed in southern parts of the state. Cotton in the Texas Panhandle was not expected to be affected in any big way. Big rains could move into the Delta this week as well. Trends are mixed on the daily charts after the price collapse on Friday. Big rains could move into southern areas in the next few days from a tropical System now in the Gulf. The growing weather in the US Delta and Southeast is generally good as rains have been seen in many growing areas. Bolls are forming and starting to open in many areas. Some harvest has been reported in southern Texas and results have been very good. Monsoon rains are reported as very uneven in India and Pakistan. Some crops are lost due to the flooding, other areas have been too dry. Better rains are forecast and also are being reported for drier areas.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see showers and storms, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions in the west but extreme rains near the Gulf coast. Temperatures will average near normal. The USDA average price is now 67.14 ct/lb. ICE certified stocks are now 10,708 bales, from 10,888 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6710, 6670, and 6630 December, with resistance of 6860, 6920, and 7000 December.

DJ USDA Volume Of Cotton Classed Report – Aug 25
Data quoted in bales for week ending Aug 24. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA
Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 0 0 Southwest 125,332 458,472
NC – – Okla – –
SC – – Texas 125,332 458,472
Ga – – Kansas – –
Ala – –
Fla – – Far West 0 0
Va – 0 NM – –
Ariz – –
Delta 0 0 Calif – –
Miss – –
Tenn – – Pima – –
Mo – – Other 0 0
Ark – 0 Total US 125,332 458,472
La – 0 pct tenderable 88.7 91.2

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 22, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 275,381
: Positions :
: 58,546 37,374 55,269 70,803 161,820 77,798 4,393 262,417 258,857: 12,964 16,524
: Changes from: August 15, 2017 (Change in open interest: 2,723) :
: -763 5,753 -1,226 4,326 -1,021 316 243 2,653 3,748: 71 -1,025
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.3 13.6 20.1 25.7 58.8 28.3 1.6 95.3 94.0: 4.7 6.0
: Total Traders: 284 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 92 80 87 60 62 26 14 222 209:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed mostly higher on Friday as some tropical storms threaten to hit the US, although no damaging weather is expected for Florida. Futures were lower for the week, but both the daily and weekly charts show sideways trends. The market price remains generally weak due to ideas of better production potential for the coming harvest and reports of weak demand. Elizabeth Steger last week estimated Florida production for the coming year at 75.5 million boxes, from 68 million boxes for the previous year. Dreyfus should release its estimates soon. Nielsen said last week that demand remains soft. Florida weather is very good as it is now drier, but showers are still around and some big rains could be coming. There are no systems in the Atlantic to cause concern about tropical storm development that could be detrimental to trees and fruit. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US. Trees now are showing fruit of good sizes and overall conditions are called good. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition and production estimates are climbing after recent rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers and storms and near to above normal temperatures this week. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 134.00, 130.00, and 129.00 September, with resistance at 138.00, 140.00, and 142.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 22, 2017
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,617 :
: Positions :
: 5,828 4,247 1,245 0 0 805 4,589 88 642 600 1,535 :
: Changes from: August 15, 2017 :
: -1,830 -783 74 0 0 260 -422 -91 -33 58 -475 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 46.2 33.7 9.9 0.0 0.0 6.4 36.4 0.7 5.1 4.8 12.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 69 :
: 21 13 5 0 0 9 12 4 11 9 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on Friday in recovery trading. Speculators have been big sellers recently, but appeared to be covering some of these positions on Friday. Commercials are said to be the best buyers. The cash market remains very quiet. Ideas of smaller offers from Brazil and the rest of Latin America go against ideas of weaker demand and the potential for increased production next year. The harvest in Brazil is starting to wind down and harvest reports have been mixed. Reports indicate that the quality of the beans harvested in Brazil often is not good and that many beans are small. The markets are quiet in Central America and producers are discouraged. There is still some Coffee to be sold, but buying interest is thin at beast and prices and differentials are not favorable. Vietnamese sellers remain quiet even with good prices as it is hard to buy from producers right now. There should be diminished exports in the ICO reports as it looks like there are enough supplies in consumer countries to keep the buyers patient at best and uninterested at current Price levels.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.658 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 122.59 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 9 notices were posted against September Contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 553 contracts
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 126.00 December. Support is at 127.00, 126.00, and 119.00 December, and resistance is at 133.00, 135.00 and 137.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2060, 2030, and 1980 November, and resistance is at 2120, 2140, and 2150 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 22, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 214,970
: Positions :
: 30,265 49,277 49,167 79,624 97,185 45,429 11,455 204,485 207,083: 10,484 7,887
: Changes from: August 15, 2017 (Change in open interest: -4,041) :
: -3,708 11,183 -3,022 1,417 -12,022 76 326 -5,238 -3,535: 1,197 -506
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.1 22.9 22.9 37.0 45.2 21.1 5.3 95.1 96.3: 4.9 3.7
: Total Traders: 429 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 122 131 133 120 110 28 13 340 328:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/22/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
124,072 58,609 77,566 4,648 7,040 3,003
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 47.2% 62.5% 3.7% 5.7% 2.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
148 50 47 9 10 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
26,576 5,936 13,001 2,043 2,872 10,486
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
21.4% 4.8% 10.5% 1.6% 2.3% 8.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
37 9 16 11 10 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,705 4,168
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.6% 3.4%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were a little higher in London and in New York on what seemed to be speculative buying related to positive chart trends. Trends are starting to turn up, and the speculative buying could be impressive as they move to cover short positions. Most view the rally as just a short-term correction of the recent down trend. Prices have fallen a lot already due to ideas of increased production in the coming year, so some type of correction trading is possible. The big harvest in Brazil and ideas of big offers keep buyers mostly quiet. An increasing part of the Sugarcane production will likely shift to ethanol on recent tax changes there. Production potential in Thailand seems strong as monsoon rains have been better than last year. It is raining in much of India now as the monsoon is active, and reports indicate good rains in many areas this week. Thailand is getting rains and production ideas are high. The rest of Southeast Asia is seeing average to above average rains so far this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1310, 1470, and 1540 October. Support is at 1350, 1330, and 1310 October, and resistance is at 1420, 1480, and 1510 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with objective of 388.00, 402.00, and 419.00 October. Support is at 375.00, 368.00, and 360.00 October, and resistance is at 386.00, 392.00, and 398.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 22, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,001,556
: Positions :
: 117,638 244,603 225,683 373,528 420,675 214,896 34,466 931,746 925,427: 69,810 76,129
: Changes from: August 15, 2017 (Change in open interest: 24,550) :
: 3,381 20,647 13,340 3,809 -6,445 3,170 1,966 23,700 29,509: 850 -4,959
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.7 24.4 22.5 37.3 42.0 21.5 3.4 93.0 92.4: 7.0 7.6
: Total Traders: 266 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 70 90 82 73 22 11 224 209:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/22/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
93,076 51,938 51,450 12,973 13,178 1,424
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 55.8% 55.3% 13.9% 14.2% 1.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
145 59 54 12 5 4
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
14,176 15,270 4,054 2,547 121 2,327
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
15.2% 16.4% 4.4% 2.7% 0.1% 2.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
16 27 12 5 5 7
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,637 5,252
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.9% 5.6%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher and trends turned up on the daily charts. The charts suggest that a short-term bottom has formed and traders talk now of increased demand to go against big world production. The market is between harvests from West Africa Ivory Coast is expected to have a big crop starting harvest this Fall, but it should be smaller than the record production of the last year. Ivory Coast has sold a lot of the next crop already, but has now pulled offers as prices are cheap and as they want to see how much more will be available for export. Ghana also expects a good crop this year. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East African conditions are now called good. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.067 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against September contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 764 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1990 and 2090 December. Support is at 1900, 1880, and 1850 December, with resistance at 1950, 2010, and 2030 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1560, 1600, and 1610 December. Support is at 1500, 1480, and 1460 December, with resistance at 1550, 1590, and 1650 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 22, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 264,461
: Positions :
: 46,019 93,569 50,593 112,203 94,654 37,559 16,020 246,374 254,835: 18,087 9,626
: Changes from: August 15, 2017 (Change in open interest: 13,474) :
: 5,173 14,984 2,979 3,795 -3,692 201 -260 12,148 14,011: 1,327 -537
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.4 35.4 19.1 42.4 35.8 14.2 6.1 93.2 96.4: 6.8 3.6
: Total Traders: 277 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 91 92 83 48 37 24 11 211 186:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/22/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
311,424 184,664 170,412 29,750 20,533 23,402
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 59.3% 54.7% 9.6% 6.6% 7.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
160 52 47 19 8 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
14,252 38,155 24,755 1,683 780 28,699
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.6% 12.3% 7.9% 0.5% 0.3% 9.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
18 30 17 11 9 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,219 4,688
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.4% 1.5%
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017



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About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

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