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Morning Softs 08/25/17

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General Comments: Cotton was higher again on follow through speculative buying tied to forecasts for big rains to move into Texas and potentially hurt the quality and harvest progress in some areas of the state. Big rains could move into the Delta late this weekend and into next week as well. Trends are up. Big rains could move into southern areas in the next few days from a tropical System now in the Gulf. The growing weather in the US Delta and Southeast is generally good as rains have been seen in many growing areas. Big rains from a tropical System could start to appear on Sunday. Bolls are forming and starting to open in many areas. Some harvest has been reported in southern Texas and results have been very good. Monsoon rains are reported as very uneven in India and Pakistan. Some crops are lost due to the flooding, other areas have been too dry. Better rains are forecast and also are being reported for drier areas.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry conditions today, then showers and storms. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Texas will see scattered showers today, then mostly dry conditions in the west but extreme rains near the Gulf coast. Temperatures will average near normal. The USDA average price is now 68.26 ct/lb. ICE certified stocks are now 10,888 bales, from 11,279 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7030 and 7380 December. Support is at 6850, 6790, and 6710 December, with resistance of 7020, 7040, and 7120 December.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Aug 24
As of Aug 18. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Oct 17 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 17 30,389 32,567 -2,178 21,589 21,547 42
Mar 18 32,716 32,608 108 3,535 3,525 10
May 18 17,068 16,744 324 470 537 -67
Jul 18 18,118 17,939 179 1,026 1,070 -44
Oct 18 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 18 8,173 8,712 -539 8,599 7,682 917
Mar 19 1,447 1,175 272 0 0 0
May 19 920 790 130 0 0 0
Jul 19 865 865 0 0 0 0
Dec 19 549 549 0 2,517 2,517 0
Mar 20 549 549 0 0 0
Total 110,794 112,498 -1,704 37,736 36,878 858
Open Open Change
Int Int
Oct 17 181 185 -4
Dec 17 147,607 147,452 155
Mar 18 53,178 50,357 2,821
May 18 6,448 6,147 301
Jul 18 5,309 5,058 251
Oct 18 1 1 0
Dec 18 11,192 9,715 1,477
Mar 19 255 187 68
May 19 0 0 0
Jul 19 133 83 50
Dec 19 26 25 1
Mar 20 0 0 0
Total 224,330 219,210 5,120

General Comments: FCOJ closed higher as some tropical storms threaten to hit the US, although no damaging weather is expected for Florida. The market price remains low due to ideas of better production potential for the coming harvest and reports of weak demand.. Elizabeth Steger estimated Florida production for the coming year at 75.5 million boxes, from 68 million boxes for the previous year. Dreyfus should release its estimates soon. Neilsen said that demand remains soft. Florida weather is very good as it is now drier, but showers are still around and some big rains could be coming. There are no systems in the Atlantic to cause concern about tropical storm development that could be detrimental to trees and fruit. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US. Trees now are showing fruit of good sizes and overall conditions are called good. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition and production estimates are climbing after recent rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures this week and good chances for showers and storms this weekend. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 129.00, 128.00, and 125.00 September, with resistance at 140.00, 142.00, and 145.00 September.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack – Aug 25
In mm ps, (million pounds solid).
Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 8/19/2017 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
8/19/2017 8/20/2016 % Change
Carry Over
Bulk 182.83 251.17 -27.2%
Retail/Institutional 6.02 6.36 -5.3%
Total 188.86 257.53 -26.7%
Bulk 1.06 1.87 -43.3%
Retail/Institutional 1.44 1.36 5.8%
Total Pack 2.50 3.23 -22.6%
Reprocessed -2.50 -3.23 -22.6%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.00 -100.0%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.06 -0.20 -71.4%
Imports – Foreign 1.03 0.66 56.5%
Domestic Receipts 0.19 0.03 489.1%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entity 0.11 0.03 235.7%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.03 0.01 248.4%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 182.69 250.35 -27.0%
Retail/Institutional 7.47 7.72 -3.3%
Total 190.16 258.07 -26.3%
Domestic 4.42 4.51 -1.9%
Exports 1.33 8.72 -84.8%
Total (Bulk) 5.75 13.23 -56.5%
Domestic 1.18 1.29 -8.5%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.18 1.29 -8.5%
Total Movement 6.93 14.52 -52.3%
Bulk 176.94 237.12 -25.4%
Retail/Institutional 6.29 6.43 -2.3%
Ending Inventory 183.22 243.55 -24.8%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
19-Aug-17 20-Aug-16 % Change
Carry Over
Bulk 212.24 281.45 -24.6%
Retail/Institutional 6.78 7.81 -13.2%
Total 219.03 289.26 -24.3%
Bulk 156.85 175.04 -10.4%
Retail/Institutional 63.50 71.19 -10.8%
Total Pack 220.35 246.24 -10.5%
Reprocessed -145.89 -153.68 -5.1%
Pack from Fruit 74.46 92.55 -19.5%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -4.02 -1.22 227.9%
Imports – Foreign 211.12 174.30 21.1%
Domestic Receipts 6.81 12.51 -45.5%
Receipts of Florida Product 2.98 0.22 1240.1%
from Non-Reporting Entity 2.57 5.49 -53.3%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 2.68 3.28 -18.2%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 445.35 497.39 -10.5%
Retail/Institutional 70.29 79.01 -11.0%
Total 515.64 576.40 -10.5%
Bulk 207.99 218.69 -4.9%
Domestic 60.42 41.58 45.3%
Exports 268.41 260.27 3.1%
Total (Bulk)
Domestic 64.00 72.58 -11.8%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 64.00 72.58 -11.8%
Total Movement 332.42 332.85 -0.1%
Bulk 176.94 237.12 -25.4%
Retail/Institutional 6.29 6.43 -2.3%
Ending Inventory 183.22 243.55 -24.8%

General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday on speculative selling. Speculators appear ready to push the market lower until enough buying appears to cause them to start to lose profits. The cash market remains very quiet. Ideas of smaller offers from Brazil and the rest of Latin America go against ideas of weaker demand and the potential for increased production next year. Some producers are still talk about an extended outbreak of dry weather as flowering has started in Brazil, but most are not concerned as there is often dry weather at this time of year. It is dry now, but some showers were seen in Coffee areas in the last couple of weeks. The harvest in Brazil is starting to wind down and harvest reports have been mixed. Reports indicate that the quality of the beans harvested in Brazil often is not good and that many beans are small.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.657 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 122.59 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 429 notices were posted against September Contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 544 contracts
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 126.00 December. Support is at 127.00, 126.00, and 119.00 December, and resistance is at 133.00, 135.00 and 137.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2060, 2030, and 1980 November, and resistance is at 2120, 2140, and 2150 November.

General Comments: Futures were a little higher in London and in New York on what seemed to be speculative buying related to positive chart trends. Trends are starting to turn up, and the speculative buying could be impressive as they move to cover short positions. Most view the rally as just a short term correction of the recent down trend. Prices have fallen a lot already due to ideas of increased production in the coming year, so some type of correction trading is possible. The big harvest in Brazil and ideas of big offers keep buyers mostly quiet. An increasing part of the Sugarcane production will likely shift to ethanol on recent tax changes there. Production potential in Thailand seems strong as monsoon rains have been better than last year. It is raining in much of India now as the monsoon is active, and reports indicate good rains in many areas this week. Thailand is getting rains and production ideas are high. The rest of Southeast Asia is seeing average to above average rains so far this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1310, 1470, and 1540 October. Support is at 1350, 1330, and 1310 October, and resistance is at 1420, 1480, and 1510 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 388.00, 402.00, and 419.00 October. Support is at 375.00, 368.00, and 360.00 October, and resistance is at 386.00, 392.00, and 398.00 October.

General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in consolidation trading. The charts suggest that a short term bottom is forming. The market is between harvests Ivory Coast is expected to have a big crop starting harvest this Fall, but it should be smaller than last year. Ivory Coast has sold a lot of the next crop already, but has now pulled offers as prices are cheap and as they want to see how much more will be available for export. Ghana also expects a good crop this year. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East African conditions are now called good. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.086 million bags. ICE said that 107 notices were posted against September contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 764 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1850, 1830, and 1810 December, with resistance at 1920, 1950, and 2010 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1460, 1450, and 1430 December, with resistance at 1520, 1550, and 1590 December.


Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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About the author

Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at

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