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Morning Softs. 08/21/17


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COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher on Friday in consolidation trading. Prices remain under general pressure due to good weather forecasts for the crop and the higher US Dollar. The temperatures are more moderate in Texas and there have been some showers. The growing weather in the US Delta and Southeast is generally good as rains have been seen in many growing areas. In fact, some areas might need drier weather as the bolls start to open to keep fiber quality high. Bolls are forming and starting to open in many areas. Some harvest has been reported in southern Texas and results have been very good. Monsoon rains are reported as very uneven in India and Pakistan. Some crops are lost due to the flooding, other areas have been too dry. Better rains are forecast for drier areas this week. It was too hot and dry in Turkey and production losses are possible. The weekly charts show that futures might have completed a bear flag and could break some support areas and move lower in the next few weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Texas will see dry scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. The USDA average price is now 65.67 ct/lb. ICE certified stocks are now 13,983 bales, from 15,786 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 6670, 6630, and 6610 December, with resistance of 6750, 6780, and 6850 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 15, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 272,658
: Positions :
: 59,310 31,622 56,495 66,477 162,841 77,482 4,151 259,764 255,109: 12,894 17,549
: Changes from: August 8, 2017 (Change in open interest: 3,085) :
: -3,129 258 1,838 2,180 -1,491 2,036 422 2,924 1,027: 161 2,058
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.8 11.6 20.7 24.4 .7 28.4 1.5 95.3 93.6: 4.7 6.4
: Total Traders: 285 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 94 79 90 60 62 28 15 228 207:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower on Friday, but higher for the week as three tropical systems have formed in the Atlantic. The potential for storms increases dramatically for the next few weeks, and the systems are coming right in line with long-term normals. Florida weather is very good as it is now drier after some recent rains. There are no systems in the Atlantic to cause concern about tropical storm development that could be detrimental to trees and fruit. One System is moving away from the US in the Atlantic and into Mexico and one might fall apart before getting close to the US. The third System could develop and could move to Florida. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US. Trees now are showing fruit of varying sizes and overall conditions are called good. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition. The weekly charts show that a low could be near completion,
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures this week and good chances for showers and storms this weekend. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 153.00 September. Support is at 137.00, 135.00, and 133.00 September, with resistance at 145.00, 148.00, and 151.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 15, 2017
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 14,880 :
: Positions :
: 7,659 5,030 1,171 0 0 545 5,011 179 674 542 2,009 :
: Changes from: August 8, 2017 :
: -749 -57 -7 0 0 130 -200 -38 22 -190 -140 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.5 33.8 7.9 0.0 0.0 3.7 33.7 1.2 4.5 3.6 13.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 66 :
: 21 13 4 0 0 8 12 5 12 6 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again on follow through selling tied to ideas of improving growing conditions in Brazil. There has been some rains and flowering has been reported to get the next production cycle started. Ideas of smaller offers from Brazil and the rest of Latin America are still around, but ideas of weaker demand and the potential for increased production next year keep buyers away. Producers are still worried about an extended outbreak of dry weather as flowering has started in Brazil, and some areas missed on forecast rains last week. The harvest in Brazil is starting to wind down. Reports indicate that the quality of the beans harvested in Brazil is not good and that many beans are small. The cash market is quiet with little interest from producers or roasters. .
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.614 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 125.26 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 126.00 and 115.00 September. Support is at 125.00, 123.00, and 120.00 September, and resistance is at 130.00, 135.00 and 137.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1990 and 1880 September. Support is at 2090, 2070, and 2040 September, and resistance is at 2130, 2150, and 2180 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 15, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 219,011
: Positions :
: 33,974 38,094 52,189 78,207 109,206 45,353 11,128 209,723 210,618: 9,287 8,393
: Changes from: August 8, 2017 (Change in open interest: -35,635) :
: -1,748 -2,188 -19,297 -14,807 -14,286 830 543 -35,022 -35,228: -613 -407
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.5 17.4 23.8 35.7 49.9 20.7 5.1 95.8 96.2: 4.2 3.8
: Total Traders: 424 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 121 119 144 126 116 29 14 354 332:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/15/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
148,666 68,392 88,667 5,486 6,895 4,008
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 46.0% 59.6% 3.7% 4.6% 2.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
155 53 49 9 9 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
27,872 7,083 20,122 2,153 2,513 14,997
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
18.7% 4.8% 13.5% 1.4% 1.7% 10.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
38 14 18 11 9 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,636 4,380
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.8% 2.9%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures in London and New York were higher again on Friday, but weekly chart trends remain mostly down. The big harvest in Brazil continues, and ideas of big offers from there has been a reason for prices to stay pinned near 1300 New York October. Production potential in Thailand seems improved for now as monsoon rains have been better than last year. It is raining in much of India now as the monsoon is active, but rains have been uneven. Some northwest areas have been flooded due to big rains. Other areas are too dry, but rains are forecast for dry areas this week. Thailand is getting rains and production ideas are high. The rest of Southeast Asia is seeing average to above average rains so far this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1310, 1290, and 1240 October, and resistance is at 1360, 1370, and 1390 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 344.00 and 335.00 October. Support is at 360.00, 357.00, and 354.00 October, and resistance is at 375.00, 378.00, and 381.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 15, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 977,006
: Positions :
: 114,257 223,956 212,343 369,720 427,120 211,725 32,500 908,045 895,918: 68,960 81,087
: Changes from: August 8, 2017 (Change in open interest: 36,495) :
: -1,050 31,572 4,190 25,938 -10,978 8,319 7,546 37,396 32,330: -901 4,165
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.7 22.9 21.7 37.8 43.7 21.7 3.3 92.9 91.7: 7.1 8.3
: Total Traders: 262 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 69 75 87 79 73 22 12 217 207:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/15/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
89,606 49,285 49,833 12,771 12,811 1,159
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 55.0% 55.6% 14.3% 14.3% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
148 58 53 12 5 4
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
14,725 15,073 3,085 2,893 71 2,735
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
16.4% 16.8% 3.4% 3.2% 0.1% 3.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
16 26 10 7 4 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,953 4,839
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.3% 5.4%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher on Friday, but lower for the week. The market is holding in a big trading range and is now at the lower end of the range. Overall, the market is between harvests and no one seems to expect much to happen for another few weeks It is warmer and drier in Ivory Coast, but rains are in the forecast. The rest of West Africa is still getting showers and moderate temperatures. Chocolate manufacturers in general have reported improved sales volumes and ideas are that the better sales can continue as chocolate and cocoa are relatively cheap. Ivory Coast is expected to have a big crop starting harvest this Fall, but it should be smaller than last year. Ghana also expects a good crop this year. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East African conditions are now called good. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.135 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against September contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 574 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1850, 1830, and 1810 December, with resistance at 1920, 1950, and 2010 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1420 December. Support is at 1460, 1450, and 1430 December, with resistance at 1520, 1550, and 1590 December.

DJ CMAA Spot Cocoa Bean And Price Indications – Aug 21
Ex-dock or warehouse U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hatteras, in U.S. dollars
per metric ton. Settling price for August 18, 2017. All pricing is considered
nominal. Source: Cocoa Merchants Association of America.
N/A denotes not available.
Type Differential/ Price
Ratio
Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1 350 2,228.00
Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1 270 2,148.00
Main Crop Nigerian, Grade 1 215 2,093.00
Ecuador 125 2,003.00
Sanchez f.a.q. 190 2,068.00
PPP Natural African Type Carton Cocoa Butter 2.78 5,220.84
Cocoa Press Cake – Natural 10/12% Butterfat 0.85 1,600.00

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 15, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 250,987
: Positions :
: 40,846 78,584 47,614 108,409 98,346 37,358 16,280 234,227 240,824: 16,760 10,162
: Changes from: August 8, 2017 (Change in open interest: -17,591) :
: 951 6,748 -7,212 -3,816 -8,847 -4,908 -4,308 -14,986 -13,619: -2,605 -3,971
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.3 31.3 19.0 43.2 39.2 14.9 6.5 93.3 96.0: 6.7 4.0
: Total Traders: 257 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 74 91 76 46 37 23 12 189 181:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/15/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
299,582 178,210 168,869 27,166 19,626 23,927
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 59.5% 56.4% 9.1% 6.6% 8.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
163 52 47 18 10 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,335 30,977 22,959 1,319 834 28,256
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.1% 10.3% 7.7% 0.4% 0.3% 9.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
17 33 17 8 10 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,409 4,133
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.8% 1.4%
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017



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About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

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