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Morning Softs. 08/14/17


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COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher after the sharply lower day on Thursday in reaction to the USDA reports. USDA showed much higher than expected production and ending stocks estimates and caught the trade due to the extremely high production estimates. It could be that USDA is overestimating yield on this report and that production estimates are the highest for the year. Prices are still at support areas. The temperatures are more moderate in Texas and there have been some showers. The growing weather in the US Delta and Southeast is generally good as rains have been seen in many growing areas. Boles are forming and starting to open in many areas. Some harvest has been reported in southern Texas and results have been very good. Monsoon rains are reported as very uneven in India and Pakistan and some flooding has been reported in the Gujarat of India. Some central areas and eastern areas have missed rains. Some crops are lost due to the flooding. It has been too hot and dry in Turkey and production losses are possible.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see scattered showers much of this week. Some areas could see big rains. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Texas will see dry scattered showers today, then dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 66.94 ct/lb. ICE certified stocks are now 19,342 bales, from 19,450 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 6780, 6750, and 6730 December, with resistance of 6900, 6920, and 6970 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 08, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 269,573
: Positions :
: 62,439 31,364 54,658 64,297 164,332 75,447 3,729 256,841 254,082: 12,733 15,491
: Changes from: August 1, 2017 (Change in open interest: 4,611) :
: 3,609 -7,409 1,763 -1,083 9,803 -408 307 3,882 4,464: 729 147
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.2 11.6 20.3 23.9 61.0 28.0 1.4 95.3 94.3: 4.7 5.7
: Total Traders: 293 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 101 78 92 61 62 29 16 240 206:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower last week and remains in a trading range. All eyes remain on the hurricane season in the Atlantic as the potential for storms increases dramatically for the next few weeks. Florida weather is very good as rains are reported each day and as no hurricanes have yet formed in the Atlantic. A couple of tropical storms have formed and one brought some big, but mostly beneficial, rains to the state. There are no systems in the Atlantic to cause concern about tropical storm development that could be detrimental to trees and fruit. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US. Brazil has been exporting FCOJ to the US to cover the short Florida crop. Domestic production remains very low due to the greening disease and drought. Trees now are showing fruit of varying sizes and overall conditions are called good. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 13.00, 130.00, and 128.00 September, with resistance at 139.00, 142.00, and 145.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 8, 2017
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 15,499 :
: Positions :
: 8,408 5,087 1,178 0 0 415 5,211 217 652 733 2,150 :
: Changes from: August 1, 2017 :
: 683 540 91 0 0 -48 128 1 -13 92 156 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 54.2 32.8 7.6 0.0 0.0 2.7 33.6 1.4 4.2 4.7 13.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 72 :
: 23 16 4 0 0 6 13 5 10 11 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on follow through selling tied to the weaker Brazilian Real. Speculators appeared to be the best sellers, although there were reports of producer selling in Brazil due to the currency moves. Ideas of smaller offers from Brazil and the rest of Latin America are still around, but the market seems to have factored these ideas into prices already. The weather forecasts kept outlooks for near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions in Brazil. Producers are still worried about an extended outbreak of dry weather as it is almost flowering time in Brazil. Reports of Broca worm moving into Brazil crops is bringing ideas of additional losses. The harvest in Brazil is starting to wind down. Reports indicate that the quality of the beans harvested in Brazil is not good and that many beans are small. The cash market is quiet with little interest from producers or roasters. Chart trends are up in New York.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.585 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 132.88 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 150.00 September. Support is at 137.00, 135.00, and 133.00 September, and resistance is at 143.00, 145.00 and 148.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2100, 2090, and 2060 September, and resistance is at 2150, 2180, and 2200 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 08, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 254,646
: Positions :
: 35,722 40,282 71,487 93,014 123,492 44,523 10,585 244,746 245,846: 9,900 8,800
: Changes from: August 1, 2017 (Change in open interest: -3,283) :
: -1,009 -11,184 31 -11 11,217 -2,140 -2,667 -3,130 -2,604: -153 -679
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.0 15.8 28.1 36.5 48.5 17.5 4.2 96.1 96.5: 3.9 3.5
: Total Traders: 445 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 129 127 159 135 129 26 14 373 360:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/08/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
154,963 67,888 93,422 4,301 7,094 4,974
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 43.8% 60.3% 2.8% 4.6% 3.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
165 54 51 10 9 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
30,789 5,669 22,967 1,606 1,879 15,677
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
19.9% 3.7% 14.8% 1.0% 1.2% 10.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
43 14 19 10 10 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,760 3,280
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.4% 2.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures in London and New York were lower again. The charts show that futures remain in an overall trading range and are near the low-end of the range. Price action is weak and the market tone implies that sideways to lower prices can be expected. London remains the weaker market. The big harvest in Brazil continues, but some of the processing will probably switch now to ethanol due to tax changes this week and relative US Dollar weakness. Production potential in Thailand seems improved for now as monsoon rains have been better than last year. It is raining in much of India now as the monsoon is active, but rains have been uneven. Some northwest areas have been flooded due to big rains. Other areas are too dry and there could be some damage to crops if more rains do not show up fairly soon. Thailand is getting rains. The rest of Southeast Asia is seeing average to above average rains so far this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1300, 1240, and 1210 October, and resistance is at 1370, 1390, and 1420 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 364.00, 344.00, and 335.00 October. Support is at 364.00, 360.00, and 357.00 October, and resistance is at 378.00, 381.00, and 386.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 08, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 940,510
: Positions :
: 115,308 192,383 208,153 343,782 438,098 203,407 24,954 870,649 863,588: 69,861 76,922
: Changes from: August 1, 2017 (Change in open interest: 12,348) :
: -4,084 25 6,601 11,123 -92 4,681 3,897 18,321 10,430: -5,973 1,918
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.3 20.5 22.1 36.6 46.6 21.6 2.7 92.6 91.8: 7.4 8.2
: Total Traders: 248 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 68 65 84 78 71 22 11 209 196:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/08/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
86,616 45,806 50,974 12,266 11,677 983
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 52.9% 58.9% 14.2% 13.5% 1.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
139 53 53 12 5 4
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,385 11,976 4,221 2,213 196 2,263
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
17.8% 13.8% 4.9% 2.6% 0.2% 2.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
17 24 11 7 4 9
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,478 4,325
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.0% 5.0%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower on follow through selling from speculators. The market is holding in a big trading range. It is warmer and drier in Ivory Coast. The rest of West Africa is still getting showers and more moderate temperatures. Chocolate manufacturers in general have reported improved sales volumes and ideas are that the better sales can continue as chocolate and cocoa are relatively cheap. Ivory Coast is expected to have a big crop starting harvest this Fall, but it should be smaller than last year. Ghana also expects a good crop this year The offer side of their market appears to be less right now as West Africa is between crops. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East African conditions are now called good. Brazil remains too dry. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.225 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1940, 1900, and 1890 September, with resistance at 2010, 2040, and 2070 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1530, 1470, and 1450 September, with resistance at 1570, 1600, and 1610 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 08, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 268,577
: Positions :
: 39,894 71,836 54,826 112,225 107,193 42,266 20,588 249,212 254,443: 19,365 14,134
: Changes from: August 1, 2017 (Change in open interest: -28,409) :
: 1,216 -5,319 -9,857 -8,541 -7,491 -10,231 -5,466 -27,413 -28,134: -996 -275
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.9 26.7 20.4 41.8 39.9 15.7 7.7 92.8 94.7: 7.2 5.3
: Total Traders: 247 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 66 85 80 48 38 26 11 191 175:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/08/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
304,586 182,974 179,925 25,288 18,108 22,338
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 60.1% 59.1% 8.3% 5.9% 7.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
162 51 48 19 9 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
16,693 27,757 21,950 2,582 481 30,135
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.5% 9.1% 7.2% 0.8% 0.2% 9.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
23 23 20 12 7 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,626 3,892
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.9% 1.3%
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017



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About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

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