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USDA REPORT FOR 6/30/17


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Corn Stocks Up 11 Percent from June 2016

Soybean Stocks Up 11 Percent

All Wheat Stocks Up 21 Percent


Corn stocks in all positions on June 1, 2017 totaled 5.23 billion bushels, up 11 percent from June 1, 2016. Of the total stocks, 2.84 billion bushels are stored on farms, up 15 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 2.38 billion bushels, are up 6 percent from a year ago.

The March - May 2017 indicated disappearance is 3.40 billion bushels, compared with 3.11 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on June 1, 2017 totaled 963 million bushels, up 11 percent from June 1, 2016. On-farm stocks totaled 333 million bushels, up 18 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 631 million bushels, are up 7 percent from a year ago.

Indicated disappearance for the March - May 2017 quarter totaled 775 million bushels, up 18 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Old crop all wheat stored in all positions on June 1, 2017 totaled 1.18 billion bushels, up 21 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 192 million bushels, down 3 percent from last year. Off-farm stocks, at 993 million bushels, are up 28 percent from a year ago. The March - May 2017 indicated disappearance is 472 million bushels, up 19 percent from the same period a year earlier.


Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: The grain stocks estimates in this report are based on surveys conducted during the first two weeks of June. Separate surveys are conducted to obtain the on-farm and off-farm estimates. The on-farm stocks survey is a probability survey that includes a sample of approximately 69,700 farm operators selected from a list of producers that ensures all operations in the United States have a chance to be selected. These producers are asked to provide the total quantities of grain stored on their operations as of June 1, 2017.

This includes all whole grains and oilseeds stored whether for feed, seed, or sale as well as any stored under a government program. The off-farm stocks survey is an enumeration of all known commercial grain storage facilities. This includes approximately 8,500 facilities with 11.1 billion bushels of storage capacity. An effort is made to obtain a report from all facilities. Reports of stock holdings are normally received from operations covering about 90 percent of the capacity.Estimates are made for missing facilities to make the survey complete.

Estimation Procedures: On-farm and off-farm survey data are reviewed at the State and National levels for reasonableness, consistency with historical estimates, and current crop size. After estimates are made for on-farm and off-farm stocks, the totals of these two are combined and evaluated using the balance sheet approach.

This method utilizes other sources of data to check the reasonableness of the stocks estimates. Estimates of production, imports, exports, crushings, millings, and all other recorded uses of grains and oilseeds are reviewed to make sure beginning stocks, production, utilization, and ending stocks are within reasonable balance and present the best possible estimate of stocks.

Revision Policy: On-farm and off-farm stocks are subject to revision the quarter following initial publication and again in the following December 1 Grain Stocks report published in January each year. Revisions can be made when late reports are received, errors are detected in reporting and calculations, and production estimates are revised. Estimates will also be reviewed following the 5-year Census of Agriculture. No revisions to these years will be made after that date. Reliability: Reliability of the on-farm and off-farm stocks must be treated separately because the survey designs for the two surveys are very different.

The on-farm stocks estimates are subject to sampling variability because all operations holding on-farm stocks are not included in the sample. This variability, as measured by the relative standard error at the United States level, is approximately 2.4 percent for corn, 3.5 percent for soybeans, and 4.2 percent for all wheat. This means that chances are approximately 95 out of 100 that survey estimates for stocks will be within plus or minus 4.8 percent for corn, 7.0 percent for soybeans, and 8.4 percent for all wheat of the value that could be developed by averaging the estimates produced from all possible samples selected from the same population and surveyed using the same procedures.

The relative standard errors for sorghum, barley, and oats are 16.6, 6.3, and 5.2 percent, respectively. Survey indications are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission, duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. Off-farm, as well as on-farm stocks, are subject to these types of errors. These errors cannot be measured directly, but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.


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Currently a member of The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a floor broker and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA). I started my career in 1973 on The Chicago Mercantile Exchange trading floor working for a major firm. Three years later I purchased my first membership and began what would become a thirteen-year commitment to trading soybeans for my own account on the trading floor. I began trading options on futures since their inception in Chicago about twenty years ago; doing so, I traded in various pits on the trade floor. 

One of the major lessons that I have learned from all my years of experience is that knowledge is an important condition for the possibility of successful trading. Knowledge gives you a better chance to succeed by eliminating obvious mistakes: with it, you will never find yourself shamefully uttering, “If I only took the time to learn”.  
         
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Howard Tyllas

Futures trading involves the substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not mean future results.

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