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USDA REPORT FOR 3/31/2017


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Grain Stocks     
Corn Stocks Up 10 Percent from March 2016 Soybean Stocks Up 13 Percent All Wheat Stocks Up 21 Percent  Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2017 totaled 8.62 billion bushels,  up 10 percent from March 1, 2016. Of the total stocks, 4.91 billion bushels  were stored on farms, up 13 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at  3.71 billion bushels, are up 6 percent from a year ago. The  December 2016 - February 2017 indicated disappearance is 3.77 billion  bushels, compared with 3.41 billion bushels during the same period last year.  
Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 2017 totaled 1.73 billion  bushels, up 13 percent from March 1, 2016. Soybean stocks stored on farms are  estimated at 669 million bushels, down 8 percent from a year ago. Off-farm  stocks, at 1.07 billion bushels, are up 33 percent from last March. Indicated  disappearance for the December 2016 - February 2017 quarter totaled  1.16 billion bushels, down 2 percent from the same period a year earlier.  
All wheat stored in all positions on March 1, 2017 totaled 1.66 billion  bushels, up 21 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at  350 million bushels, up 9 percent from last March. Off-farm stocks, at  1.31 billion bushels, are up 24 percent from a year ago. The  December 2016 - February 2017 indicated disappearance is 422 million bushels,  13 percent above the same period a year earlier.
Statistical Methodology 
Survey Procedures: The grain stocks estimates in this report are based on  surveys conducted during the first two weeks of March. Separate surveys are  conducted to obtain the on-farm and off-farm estimates. The on-farm stocks  survey is a probability survey that includes a sample of approximately  83,300 farm operators selected from a list of producers that ensures all  operations in the United States have a chance to be selected. These producers  are asked to provide the total quantities of grain stored on their operations  as of March 1, 2017. This includes all whole grains and oilseeds stored  whether for feed, seed, or sale as well as any stored under a government  program.  The off-farm stocks survey is an enumeration of all known commercial grain  storage facilities. This includes approximately 8,500 facilities with  11.1 billion bushels of storage capacity. An effort is made to obtain a  report from all facilities. Reports of stock holdings are normally received  from operations covering about 90 percent of the capacity. Estimates are made  for missing facilities to make the survey complete.  
Estimation Procedures: On-farm and off-farm survey data are reviewed at the  State and National levels for reasonableness, consistency with historical  estimates, and current crop size. After estimates are made for on-farm and  off-farm stocks, the totals of these two are combined and evaluated using the  balance sheet approach. This method utilizes other sources of data to check  the reasonableness of the stocks estimates. Estimates of production, imports,  exports, crushings, millings, and all other recorded uses of grains and  oilseeds are reviewed to make sure beginning stocks, production, utilization,  and ending stocks are within reasonable balance and present the best possible  estimate of stocks.  
Revision Policy: On-farm and off-farm stocks are subject to revision the  quarter following initial publication and again in the following December 1  Grain Stocks report published in January each year. Revisions can be made  when late reports are received, errors are detected in reporting and  calculations, and production estimates are revised. Estimates will also be  reviewed following the 5-year Census of Agriculture. No revisions to these  years will be made after that date.  
Reliability: Reliability of the on-farm and off-farm stocks must be treated  separately because the survey designs for the two surveys are very different.  The on-farm stocks estimates are subject to sampling variability because all  operations holding on-farm stocks are not included in the sample. This  variability, as measured by the relative standard error at the United States  level, is approximately 2.0 percent for corn, 2.7 percent for soybeans, and  2.9 percent for all wheat. This means that chances are approximately 95 out  of 100 that survey estimates for stocks will be within plus or minus  4.0 percent for corn, 5.4 percent for soybeans, and 5.8 percent for all wheat  of the value that could be developed by averaging the estimates produced from  all possible samples selected from the same population and surveyed using the  same procedures. The relative standard errors for sorghum, barley, and oats  are 11.0, 4.2, and 4.1 percent, respectively.  Survey indications are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission,  duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting,  recording, and processing the data. Off-farm, as well as on-farm stocks, are  subject to these types of errors. These errors cannot be measured directly,  but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection  process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and  reasonableness.

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Currently a member of The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a floor broker and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA). I started my career in 1973 on The Chicago Mercantile Exchange trading floor working for a major firm. Three years later I purchased my first membership and began what would become a thirteen-year commitment to trading soybeans for my own account on the trading floor. I began trading options on futures since their inception in Chicago about twenty years ago; doing so, I traded in various pits on the trade floor. 

One of the major lessons that I have learned from all my years of experience is that knowledge is an important condition for the possibility of successful trading. Knowledge gives you a better chance to succeed by eliminating obvious mistakes: with it, you will never find yourself shamefully uttering, “If I only took the time to learn”.  
         
I want to save you from such regrets by teaching you where the danger is, what it looks like, and how to go around it, while still keeping an eye on your destination of success. In short, I will teach you how to combat error with knowledge.
       
My mission is to educate you, giving you my 45 years experience, wisdom, and knowledge from which you will then be able to use and benefit from at will.

I know what will help you make money, and I know what will insure failure. Use my services and prevent, “If I only knew”.  
  

Howard Tyllas

Futures trading involves the substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not mean future results.

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