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Livestock Levels


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Live Cattle

April Live Cattle started the week on a sour note, selling off on Monday and Tuesday (making the low on Tuesday), before recovering and rallying the remainder of the week. The rally sent price past resistance at 117.825 and towards weekly trendline resistance at 118.70. The high was 118.25 and trade couldnt overcome resistance as it dropped below it at the end of Fridays trading session, settling at 117.60. Trendline resistance is at 118.35 next week and a breakout above the trendline could lead to a test of the January high at 121.45. Continued strength could push price towards resistance at 124.675. With the close below 117.825 resistance level, any weakness could lead to a test of the 8 WMA (116.025). A breakdown from the 8 WMA could lead to a test of trendline support at 114.70 and then the 21 (112.625) and 50 (112.475) WMAs.

Feeder Cattle

April Feeder Cattle had a breakout to the upside last week, rallying above the ledge formation and closing above the 8 (125.00), 13 (126.10), and 21(124.625) WMAs. The ledge and the MAs have been containing price for the past 5 weeks and the breakout took price to trendline resistance at 127.125. A rally above the trendline could lead price to test the January high at 131.75. The next level is at 133.00. Support comes in at the MAs and then 122.825 and then 120.30.

Lean Hogs

April Lean Hogs continues to consolidate as it had its second inside week candle in a row. Last weeks candle was the narrowest candle in the past 7 weeks. It is also trapped between the 8 (68.60) and13 (67.075) WMAs. A breakout above the 8 WMA could see a test of resistance at 70.00 and then 72.875. A breakdown from the 13 WMA could lead to a test of support at 64.90 and then 61.90.

For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Friday, March 17 at 3:00pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.

Sign Up Now

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Market Strategist

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163

888.391.7894

Fax: 312.256.0109

bdicostanzo@walshtrading.com

www.walshtrading.com

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING. THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT. WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.



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About the author


Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading

I began my career in the Securities industry working as a runner on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange while I attended Pace University. I then started working for Salomon Brothers in their Government Bond Trading arena. After graduating from Pace University with a degree in Accounting, I transferred to Chicago and became a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange utilizing my experience to execute trades and manage risk for institutional clients as a broker for Salomon Brothers on the trading floor. I then embarked to trade for my own account in the stock indices pits as a local before moving off the floor to aid and assist individual clients in their trading endeavors. I now work at Walsh Trading holding a series 3 broker’s license whose duties include being the firm’s Chief Market technician.

I understand that every client's needs are different, and I pride myself in tailoring my service to each client's unique circumstances and needs. Individual client experience, risk tolerance, and capital all play a role in how I approach the markets. I am involved in all markets using technical analysis to find opportunities. My approach is driven by the principles of capital preservation.

My trading philosophy is that if you can recognize and manage the risk, you have a better chance to be successful in trading. I advise clients to always use stops as money management in my opinion is the most important ingredient in trading commodities.

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