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USDA & WASDE REPORT FOR 1/12/17


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USDA Grain Stocks

Corn Stocks Up 10 Percent from December 2015

Soybean Stocks Up 7 Percent

All Wheat Stocks Up 19 Percent

Corn stored in all positions on December 1, 2016 totaled 12.4 billion bushels, up 10 percent from December 1, 2015. Of the total stocks, 7.61 billion bushels are stored on farms, up 11 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 4.77 billion bushels, are up 8 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2016 indicated disappearance is 4.50 billion bushels, compared with 4.10 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on December 1, 2016 totaled 2.90 billion bushels, up 7 percent from December 1, 2015. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 1.34 billion bushels, up 2 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.56 billion bushels, are up 11 percent from last December. Indicated disappearance for September - November 2016 totaled 1.61 billion bushels, up 15 percent from the same period a year earlier.

All wheat stored in all positions on December 1, 2016 totaled 2.07 billion bushels, up 19 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 571 million bushels, up 13 percent from last December. Off-farm stocks, at 1.50 billion bushels, are up 21 percent from a year ago. The September - November 2016 indicated disappearance is 472 million bushels, 34 percent above the same period a year earlier.

WASDE REPORT FOR 1/12/17

WHEAT: U.S. 2016/17 all wheat ending stocks are raised this month and projected to reach the highest level since the late 1980’s. Feed and residual use is lowered 35 million bushels reflecting disappearance for June-November as implied by the December 1 stocks estimated in the Grain Stocks report. Seed use is lowered 8 million bushels on the winter wheat planted area released today in the Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Total supplies for 2016/17 are lowered fractionally on lower beginning stocks while 2016 production is unchanged. Projected ending stocks for 2016/17 are raised 43 million bushels. The season-average farm price is raised $0.10 at the midpoint to $3.80 on higher-than-expected cash prices to date. However, this season-average price would still be the lowest since 2005.


Global wheat supplies for 2016/17 are raised 1.3 million tons on a production increase that is only partially offset by lower beginning stocks. The largest increases are for Argentina, Russia, and the EU. Global exports are raised 1.2 million tons led by increases for Argentina, Australia, and the EU. Partly offsetting is a reduction in Canadian exports reflecting the slow shipment pace so far this year. Global use for 2016/17 is raised 0.1 million tons with increased food use partially offset by a reduction in feed and residual use. With total global supplies increasing faster than use, ending stocks are increased 1.2 million tons to a new record of 253.3 million.


COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2016/17 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced feed and residual use, increased corn used to produce ethanol, and smaller stocks. Corn production is estimated at 15.148 billion bushels, down 78 million from last month on lower harvested area and a reduction in yield to 174.6 bushels per acre. Imports are raised based on the pace of corn imports through November. Feed and residual use is lowered 50 million bushels to 5,600 million based on the smaller crop, increased corn used to produce ethanol, greater sorghum feeding, and indicated disappearance during September-November as reflected by the December 1 stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million bushels to 5,325 million based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report which estimated the amount of corn used to produce ethanol during September-November to be record high. With supply falling faster than use, corn ending stocks are lowered 48 million bushels from last month. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents on both ends to $3.10 to $3.70 per bushel.


Sorghum production for 2016/17 is estimated 18 million bushels higher on increases in both harvested area and yield. Grain sorghum prices are projected to average $2.65 to $3.15 per bushel, down 15 cents at the midpoint reflecting the weakening relationship to corn prices in interior markets.


Global coarse grain production for 2016/17 is forecast 1.7 million tons lower to 1,327.7 million. This month’s 2016/17 foreign coarse grain outlook is for marginally lower production, higher consumption, and increased trade relative to last month. Serbia corn production is raised reflecting the latest information from the Foreign Agricultural Service office in Belgrade. Partly offsetting is lower corn production for Bolivia where the impact of a severe drought during the growing season was worse than previously expected. Russia barley production is lowered based on the latest government statistics. Argentina barley production is lowered on dryness in southern Buenos Aires province during crop heading and grain fill in November and December.


Major global trade changes for 2016/17 this month include lower projected corn exports for India, more than offset by increases for Serbia and the EU. Imports are raised for Bolivia, but lowered for Indonesia. Foreign corn ending stocks are virtually unchanged from last month, with reductions for Indonesia, Mexico, and the EU offset by an increase for Canada.


RICE: The U.S. 2016/17 all rice crop is reduced 10.6 million cwt to 224.1 million on lower area and yield. The all rice average yield is lowered 256 pounds per acre to 7,237 pounds. Arkansas, California, and Texas accounted for the bulk of the production decline. The long-grain crop is reduced 9.6 million cwt to 166.5 million but remains the largest since the 2010/11 record. Medium- and short-grain production is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 57.7 million. All rice domestic and residual use is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 132.0 million, based on the smaller crop. Total exports are unchanged, but rough exports are raised 1.0 million cwt, which is offset by a 1.0-million-cwt reduction in milled exports. In addition, long-grain exports are lowered 1.0 million cwt, offsetting an increase by the same amount for medium- and short-grain exports. The projected all rice season-average farm price is unchanged at a range of $9.90 to $10.90 per cwt.


Global rice supplies for 2016/17 are lowered 1.5 million tons led by a 0.7 million-ton-reduction for Sri Lanka production. Global exports and domestic consumption are both raised fractionally. Ending stocks are lowered 1.5 million tons to 118.7 million.


OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2016/17 is estimated at 127.3 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month. Lower soybean and peanut production is partly offset with higher canola, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed crops. Soybean production is estimated at a record 4,307 million bushels, down 54 million from last month on lower yields. Harvested area is estimated at 82.7 million acres, down 0.3 million from the previous forecast with lower planted area. Yield is estimated at a record 52.1 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushels. Soybean supplies are down 60 million bushels on lower production and imports. With exports and crush unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 420 million bushels, down 60 million from last month. Although soybean crush is unchanged, soybean meal production is reduced on a lower extraction rate. Soybean meal exports are also reduced on lagging sales. Soybean oil balance sheet changes include increased production on a higher extraction rate, and increased ending stocks.


U.S. peanut production is reduced 9 percent from the previous forecast based on lower harvested area, mainly in Texas, and lower yields in most states. With reduced supplies, peanut exports, crush, and ending stocks are reduced.


The 2016/17 U.S. season-average farm price forecast for soybeans is projected at $9.00 to $10.00 per bushel, from $8.70 to $10.20, up 5 cents at the midpoint. The soybean meal price forecast is unchanged at $305 to $345 per short ton. The soybean oil price forecast of 34 to 37 cents per pound is lowered 0.5 cents at the midpoint.


The 2016/17 global oilseeds supply and demand estimates include higher production and exports compared to last month. Oilseed production is projected up 0.1 million tons to 554.8 million on increases for cottonseed, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed partly offset by reductions for soybeans and peanuts. Soybean production is lowered 0.2 million tons as increases for Brazil and China are offset by declines in Bolivia, Uruguay, and the United States. The largest change to production is a 2.0-million-ton increase to 104.0 million for Brazil, where beneficial rain has resulted in improved yield prospects.


Global oilseed trade is projected at 160.3 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month. Increased soybean exports for Brazil more than offset lower soybean exports for Bolivia and Uruguay and lower rapeseed exports for Canada. Global oilseed crush is projected higher on increased soybean crush for Argentina and India and increased rapeseed crush for Canada. Global oilseed stocks are projected at 93.7 million tons, down 0.9 million, mainly on lower soybean stocks for the United States.


SUGAR: U.S. cane sugar production for 2016/17 is reduced by 29,236 short tons, raw value (STRV) based on industry reporting in Louisiana and Texas. Total imports are reduced by 1,515 STRV based on end of calendar year adjustments made for tariff rate quota imports under several Free Trade Agreements. Ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected at 1.881 million STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 15.4 percent.


Mexico sugar imports for 2015/16 are increased by 12,968 metric tons (MT) to 82,876 based on government data for the complete marketing year. Total use is increased by the same 12,968 MT for deliveries for other uses. Imports for 2016/17 are increased by 50,000 MT. These are imports projected to enter from countries other than the United States and expected to be used for other deliveries. The ending stock total for 2016/17 is unchanged at 1.229 million MT. This is the amount projected to meet sugar supply requirements of domestic deliveries for human consumption and IMMEX deliveries for 2.5 months of the following marketing year and exports to the U.S. market for the first three months of that same year. Total exports for 2016/17 are unchanged at 1.470 million MT with the same 832,081 MT projected for the U.S. market as last month.


LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The estimate for total red meat and poultry production for 2016 is raised slightly from last month. Beef production is raised on increased fed cattle slaughter and heavier carcass weights. Pork production for 2016 is raised based on slaughter data. Broiler and turkey production for 2016 is slightly lower based on the recent slaughter. For 2017, red meat and poultry production is raised largely on higher forecast pork production, although forecasts of beef and broilers are raised. Higher expected cattle placements in late 2016 and early 2017 underpin higher forecast beef production in 2017. USDA will release its semi-annual Cattle report January 31 which will provide estimates of heifers held for breeding along with indications of the availability of cattle for placement during 2017. Pork production for 2017 is raised based on estimates from the December Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. The 5 percent year-over-year increase in the September–November pig crop will be slaughtered largely in the second quarter of 2017. Producers indicated intentions to farrow 1 percent more sows in the first half of 2017 which, coupled with expected growth in pigs per litter, will support a higher level of slaughter during the second half of the year. Broiler production is raised for early 2017 on recent hatchery data, but the turkey production forecast is unchanged. Egg production for 2017 is raised slightly based on hatchery data.


Both beef and pork 2016 export estimates are raised based on November trade data and expectations of strong export demand in December. Beef imports are lowered, but no change is made to pork imports. Broiler and turkey exports are lowered on recent trade data. No change is made to the 2016 egg export estimate. For 2017, beef exports are raised as current demand strength is expected to carry into 2017. Imports are forecast higher on expectations of slightly larger supplies from Oceania in early 2017. No changes are made to pork, broiler, or turkey trade forecasts. The 2017 egg export forecast is raised on expectations of stronger sales in the first half of the year.


Livestock and poultry prices for 2016 are adjusted to reflect December price data. The 2017 cattle price forecast is increased on continued strong demand into the first part of 2017. The hog price forecast for first quarter 2017 is raised on demand strength, but price forecasts for subsequent quarters are lowered as hog supplies are expected to be large. Broiler prices are raised slightly on early-year demand strength. Turkey prices are forecast lower on relatively soft demand. Egg prices are increased.


Milk production for 2016 is raised on slightly larger milk cow numbers. The 2017 milk production forecast is raised from last month as improved returns support increases in both cow numbers and milk per cow. Fat and skim-solids basis exports for 2016 are raised on recent trade data. Imports are unchanged. Exports on a fat basis are reduced slightly for 2017, but are raised on a skim-solids basis. Import forecasts are unchanged for 2017.


Dairy product prices and Class prices for 2016 are adjusted to incorporate December price data. For 2017, butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk, and whey prices are raised from last month on demand strength. Class prices for 2017 are raised, reflecting higher product price forecasts. The all milk price range is raised to $17.60 to $18.40 per cwt.


COTTON: The U.S. 2016/17 cotton outlook shows larger production, exports, and ending stocks relative to last month. Production is raised 435,000 bales to nearly 17.0 million, due mainly to higher production in Texas. Domestic mill use is unchanged, but exports are raised to 12.5 million bales and ending stocks to 5.0 million. The forecast range for the marketing year average price received by producers is narrowed 1 cent on each end to 65 to 69 cents per pound, with the midpoint unchanged at 67 cents.


Larger production is the main factor driving a 1.5-million-bale increase in projected global 2016/17 ending stocks. In addition to the increase for the United States, production is raised 1.0 million bales for China, where inspection data indicates higher production than previously anticipated for the Xinjiang region, partially offset by a decrease for Pakistan, which is based on ginning arrivals. Consumption is reduced for India, Mexico, and Turkey, mostly offset by an increase for China. World trade is raised slightly, due mainly to higher projected imports by Pakistan and Bangladesh. Higher exports are projected for the United States and India, partially offset by decreases for Uzbekistan and Australia. World ending stocks are now projected at 90.6 million bales.


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About the author


Currently a member of The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a floor broker and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA). I started my career in 1973 on The Chicago Mercantile Exchange trading floor working for a major firm. Three years later I purchased my first membership and began what would become a thirteen-year commitment to trading soybeans for my own account on the trading floor. I began trading options on futures since their inception in Chicago about twenty years ago; doing so, I traded in various pits on the trade floor. 

One of the major lessons that I have learned from all my years of experience is that knowledge is an important condition for the possibility of successful trading. Knowledge gives you a better chance to succeed by eliminating obvious mistakes: with it, you will never find yourself shamefully uttering, “If I only took the time to learn”.  
         
I want to save you from such regrets by teaching you where the danger is, what it looks like, and how to go around it, while still keeping an eye on your destination of success. In short, I will teach you how to combat error with knowledge.
       
My mission is to educate you, giving you my 45 years experience, wisdom, and knowledge from which you will then be able to use and benefit from at will.

I know what will help you make money, and I know what will insure failure. Use my services and prevent, “If I only knew”.  
  

Howard Tyllas

Futures trading involves the substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not mean future results.

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