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Walsh Trading's Weekly Grain Report

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It was a choppy two sided trade in corn, wheat, and soybeans this week as tight intraday ranges coupled with good export demand ended with slight increases in price week on week. Spot December corn and wheat gained five cents apiece this week with January soybeans gaining 7 cents. Export sales for corn came in at 1.66 million metric tons easily beating expectations with another 106 thousand metric tons announced on Thursday sold to China. Informa released their spring corn acreage expectation on Thursday and has corn planted acreage 90.84 million acres versus 94.7 last year. Informa pegged winter wheat acreage at 33.7 million contracts compared to last year’s 36.14 million. These estimates were one small reason corn and wheat held weekly support levels at 3.37 and 3.96 respectively. The late week bounce for both corn and wheat although modest at best, was short covering due to December option expiration next Friday. Those holding long option positions in the form of puts have been slowly covering front month futures contracts along with the unwinding of futures spreads; buying back front month contracts and selling the deferred months. The fact that we have a holiday shortened thanksgiving week next week most likely spurred traders to begin the roll.

The bean market has held up in the face of a rising U.S. Dollar that has hit 13 year highs amid hawkish commentary by the Fed Chair this week and an unrelenting post election stock market rally. Demand remains insatiable with China in buying soybeans every day this week but Thursday for a weekly total of 1.076 million metric tons. The continued buying has stymied any significant downside momentum following last week’s bearish WASDE report. We are now a demand driven market as the November report from the USDA is the last major supply side report for 2016. Weather in South America is for now a two sided coin. While recent rains in Brazil the last few weeks continuing through month end are sending needed moisture to the major bean growing areas of central and northern Brazil, Argentina has turned very dry with warm temperatures and very little rain in the 6 to 10 and 11 to 15 day forecasts. Should this weather pattern persist deep into December, trend and index following funds will build another weather premium into year end and into the early January crop report.

Technical’s read like this for this upcoming week. For January soybeans support is down at 9.80 and with a close under 9.66 is next. Resistance is up at 10.03 and then 10.12. For December corn support comes in first at 3.37 and then 3.30 Resistance comes in at 3.48 and then 3.54. For December wheat support comes in at 3.96 and then 3.85. Resistance is up at 4.14 and then 4.21.

For those interested I hold a weekly grain webinar each Thursday at 3pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon signup.

Sign Up Now

For more info on Walsh Trading’s Absolute Ag Performance CTA please click on the link below:

Sean Lusk

Director Commercial Hedging Division

Walsh Trading

312 957 8103

888 391 7894 toll free

312 256 0109 fax

Walsh Trading

53 W Jackson Suite 750

Chicago, Il 60604

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About the author

Sean Lusk is a registered commodity broker and Director of the Commercial Hedging Division of Walsh Trading in Chicago. Sean began in the business as a runner on the trading floor during summer breaks from college in 1993. Upon his graduation from Southern Illinois University at Carbondale in 1996, Sean began his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Overseeing billions of dollars of transactions working as a clerk in the Eurodollar pit, Sean took the next step and became a floor broker and member of the CME in 2003. He handled customer orders for banks and investment houses from all over the world from inside the Libor pit at the CME.

Now, at Walsh Trading, Sean utilizes his experience in the marketplace and his professional client service skills to aid and assist customers in their trading endeavors.  

He writes daily and weekly commentaries focusing on both the Precious Metals and Agricultural Markets along with related market activity.

Sean has been quoted in various media outlets discussing futures markets. 

These include:


  • Futures Magazine
  • Reuters
  • Forbes
  • Kitco
  • Nikkei Press


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