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Crude Oil Wrap Up


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The release of the EIA report created some volatility in November Crude Oil on Thursday, October 13, 2016, as the headline number showed crude oil inventories increasing for the first time in 6 weeks by 4.85 million barrels. Expectations ranged from an increase of 700,000 barrels to 2 million barrels. Crude Oil tanked on this number, trading down to support at 49.36 before rebounding as traders chose to focus on drawdowns in gasoline and distillates plus a large drawdown in Cushing, Oklahoma inventories. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.907 million barrels and distillates by a large 3.746 million barrels. Drawdowns were expected to be in the 900,000 to 1.5 million barrel range for the crude oil products. Cushing, Oklahoma inventories fell by 1.318 million barrels, much lower than the expected build of 100,000 barrels. November Crude Oil traded to a new high for the day at 50.59 and then went to sleep for the remainder of the day as it traded in a tight range from 50.19 to 50.56. It settled at 50.44 and ended the session at 50.55, near the high of the day. If Crude Oil can trade above trendline resistance at 50.74 on Friday we may see another attempt to run up to the June high at 51.67. There is trendline resistance at 51.90. A breakout above the trendline could send Crude Oil prices toward the $55 mark. Support is at 50.20, 49.36, 49.08, 48.30 and 47.41.

High 50.59

Low 49.36

Last 50.55

Daily Pivots for 10/14/16:

R2

51.40

R1

50.97

PIVOT

50.17

S1

49.74

S2

48.94


If you are interested in a Managed Futures program for Crude Oil, check out this offering from Walsh Trading:

Walsh Asset Management Introduces Bluenose Capital

For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Friday, October 14 at 2:30pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon signup.

Sign Up Now

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Market Strategist

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163

888.391.7894

Fax: 312.256.0109

bdicostanzo@walshtrading.com

www.walshtrading.com

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING. THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT. WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.



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About the author


Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading

I began my career in the Securities industry working as a runner on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange while I attended Pace University. I then started working for Salomon Brothers in their Government Bond Trading arena. After graduating from Pace University with a degree in Accounting, I transferred to Chicago and became a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange utilizing my experience to execute trades and manage risk for institutional clients as a broker for Salomon Brothers on the trading floor. I then embarked to trade for my own account in the stock indices pits as a local before moving off the floor to aid and assist individual clients in their trading endeavors. I now work at Walsh Trading holding a series 3 broker’s license whose duties include being the firm’s Chief Market technician.

I understand that every client's needs are different, and I pride myself in tailoring my service to each client's unique circumstances and needs. Individual client experience, risk tolerance, and capital all play a role in how I approach the markets. I am involved in all markets using technical analysis to find opportunities. My approach is driven by the principles of capital preservation.

My trading philosophy is that if you can recognize and manage the risk, you have a better chance to be successful in trading. I advise clients to always use stops as money management in my opinion is the most important ingredient in trading commodities.

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