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USDA REPORT FOR 1/12/2016


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USDA REPORT FOR 1/12/2016

 

Crop Production


Corn for grain production is estimated at 13.6 billion bushels, down slightly from the November forecast and down 4 percent from the 2014 estimate. The average yield in the United States is estimated at 168.4 bushels per acre. This is down 0.9 bushel from the November forecast and 2.6 bushels below the 2014 average yield of 171.0 bushels per acre.

Area harvested for grain is estimated at 80.7 million acres, up slightly from the November forecast but down 3 percent from the 2014 acreage.


Soybean production in 2015 totaled a record 3.93 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the November forecast but up slightly from 2014. The average yield per acre is estimated at a record high 48.0 bushels, 0.3 bushel below the November forecast but 0.5 bushel above the 2014 yield. Harvested area is down less than 1 percent from last year’s record acreage to 81.8 million acres.


Crop Comments


Corn: Corn for grain production in the United States is estimated at 13.6 billion bushels, down slightly from the November forecast and down 4 percent from the record 2014 estimate. The average yield in the United States is estimated at 168.4 bushels per acre. This is down 0.9 bushel from the November forecast and 2.6 bushels below the record 2014  average yield of 171.0 bushels per acre, but is the second highest yield on record.

Estimated yields in 2015 are up from the previous year across the northern tier corn producing States. Wet conditions hampered yield potential in the eastern Corn Belt States. Record yields are estimated in Arizona, Florida, Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

Corn planted area, at 88.0 million acres, is down 3 percent from 2014. Area harvested for grain is estimated at 80.7 million acres, up slightly from the November forecast but down 3 percent from the 2014 estimate.

The 2015 corn objective yield data indicate the highest number of ears per acre on record for the combined 10 objective yield States (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin).

Record high ear counts were recorded in Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and South Dakota.

Corn silage production is estimated at 127 million tons for 2015, down less than 1 percent from 2014. The United States silage yield is estimated at 20.4 tons per acre, up 0.3 ton from 2014. Area harvested for silage is estimated at 6.22 million acres, down 2 percent from a year ago.

States in the eastern Corn Belt began the 2015 crop year with wet planting conditions during April, while the rest of the growing region saw favorable weather. Most States experienced improved planting conditions by the beginning of May allowing producers across the region to plant 55 percent of this year’s corn crop by May 3, twenty-seven percentage points ahead of last year and 17 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By May 17, the majority of the Nation’s corn crop, 56 percent, had emerged, 24 percentage points ahead of 2014.

By June 14, more than 90 percent of the crop had emerged in all estimating States except Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri. By June 21, wet conditions in the eastern Corn Belt led to worsening of corn condition ratings, which dropped 15 percentage points in the good to excellent categories in Indiana and 19 percentage points in Ohio. By June 28, wet conditions continued to hinder States in the eastern Corn Belt which led to further deterioration of corn condition ratings, dropping another 19 percentage points in the good to excellent categories in Ohio and 10 percentage points in Indiana.

By July 5, sunny conditions helped to ease ponding in fields in the eastern Corn Belt, boosting good to excellent ratings in Ohio by 3 percentage points and keeping good to excellent ratings steady in Indiana. By July 19, warm weather had accelerated corn development in the western Corn Belt, with silking advancing 39 percentage points or more during the week in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota. By July 26, fourteen percent of the corn crop was at or beyond the dough stage, slightly behind last year and 3 percentage points behind the 5-year average.

By August 16, twenty-one percent of this year’s crop was denting, slightly ahead of last year but 7 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Eighty-five percent of the corn was at or beyond the dough stage by August 23, four percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. Nine percent of the Nation’s crop was mature by August 30, two percentage points ahead of last year but 6 points behind the 5-year average. Below-normal temperatures in most of the Corn Belt slowed corn maturation, with all estimating States except Colorado, behind their respective 5-year average.

Favorable weather conditions advanced Nationwide progress with 35 percent of the crop mature by September 13, ten percentage points ahead of last year but 5 percentage points behind the 5-year average. By September 20, ninety-four percent of the Nation's corn was at or beyond the dent stage, 5 percentage points ahead of last year and slightly ahead of 90 Crop Production 2015 Summary (January 2016) 

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

the 5-year average. By week's end, 53 percent of the corn was mature, 13 percentage points ahead of last year but 3 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Generally warm conditions across the Corn Belt accelerated maturity of the corn crop. By September 27, seventy-one percent of the corn was mature, 14 percentage points ahead of last year but

slightly behind the 5-year average. At the same time, producers had harvested 18 percent of the Nation's corn, 7 percentage points ahead of last year but 5 percentage points behind the 5-year average.

By October 11, generally dry conditions across large portions of the Corn Belt facilitated good harvest progress with Nationwide harvest progress advancing to 42 percent complete, 19 percentage points ahead of last year but slightly behind the 5-year average. Fifty-nine percent of this year’s corn was harvested by October 18, twenty-nine percentage points

ahead of last year and 5 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Nationwide, harvest progress advanced 17 percentage points during the week ending October 18. By October 25, Nationwide corn harvest progress advanced to 75 percent complete, 31 percentage points ahead of last year and 7 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Warm weather across the Corn Belt facilitated rapid harvest progress, including an advance of 27 percentage points during the week in North Dakota and 23 percentage points in Minnesota.

By November 15, producers had harvested 96 percent of this year’s corn crop. This was 8 percentage points ahead of last year and 2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average.


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About the author


Currently a member of The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a floor broker and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA). I started my career in 1973 on The Chicago Mercantile Exchange trading floor working for a major firm. Three years later I purchased my first membership and began what would become a thirteen-year commitment to trading soybeans for my own account on the trading floor. I began trading options on futures since their inception in Chicago about twenty years ago; doing so, I traded in various pits on the trade floor. 

One of the major lessons that I have learned from all my years of experience is that knowledge is an important condition for the possibility of successful trading. Knowledge gives you a better chance to succeed by eliminating obvious mistakes: with it, you will never find yourself shamefully uttering, “If I only took the time to learn”.  
         
I want to save you from such regrets by teaching you where the danger is, what it looks like, and how to go around it, while still keeping an eye on your destination of success. In short, I will teach you how to combat error with knowledge.
       
My mission is to educate you, giving you my 45 years experience, wisdom, and knowledge from which you will then be able to use and benefit from at will.

I know what will help you make money, and I know what will insure failure. Use my services and prevent, “If I only knew”.  
  

Howard Tyllas

Futures trading involves the substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not mean future results.

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