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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.15%) this morning are up +0.13%, although European stocks are down -0.39% after the Eurozone Nov PMI composite unexpectedly declined. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan +1.92%, Hong Kong -0.51%, China -0.61%, Taiwan -1.28%, Australia -0.36%, Singapore -0.37%, South Korea -1.29%, India -1.97%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 5-3/4 month high, led by a rally in exporters, as the yen tumbled to a 4-1/4 month low against the dollar. Chinese stocks closed lower after a gauge of Chinese manufacturing fell more than expected. Commodity prices are mixed. Jan crude oil (CLF14 +0.25%) is up +0.34%. Jan gasoline (RBF14 +0.33%) is up +0.39%. Dec gold (GCZ13 -0.79%) is down -0.79% and Dec copper (HGZ13 +0.14%) is up +0.24%. Agricultural and livestock prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.11%) is down -0.17%%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.21% and rebounded from a 1-week low after ECB President Draghi said don’t try to infer speculation on negative deposit rates as there was no discussion on negative rates since the last ECB meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.73% at a 4-1/4 month high on weaker interest rate differentials for the yen with the Fed expected to taper asset purchases before the BOJ does. December T-note prices (ZNZ13 -0.04%) are down -3.5 ticks.

The German Nov manufacturing PMI rose +0.8 to 52.5, stronger than expectations of +0.3 to 52.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in nearly 2-1/2 years. The Nov PMI services climbed +1.6 to 54.5, better than expectations of +0.1 to 53.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in 9 months.

The UK Nov CBI trends total orders rose to 11 from -4 in Oct, better than expectations of 1 and the highest level in 18-3/4 years. The Nov CBI trends selling prices unexpectedly rose to 5 from -2 in Oct, better than expectations of -3 and the highest in 7 months.

UK Oct public sector net borrowing rose 6.4 billion pounds, more than expectations of 5.1 billion pounds, although Sep was revised lower to an increase of 8.6 billion pounds from the originally reported 9.4 billion pounds.

The Eurozone Nov PMI composite unexpectedly fell -0.4 to 51.5, weaker than expectations of a +0.1 increase to 52.0.

The China Nov HSBC/Markit flash manufacturing PMI fell -0.5 to 50.4, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.1 to 50.8.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a small -4,000 decline to 335,000, adding to last week’s decline of -2,000 to 339,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims today are expected to fall -4,000 to 2.870 million following last week’s report of unchanged at 2.874 million. Today’s Oct PPI report is expected to be unchanged from September at +0.3% y/y. The Oct core PPI is expected to edge higher to +1.3% y/y from +1.2% in September. Today’s Nov Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected to show a -4.8 point decline to 15.0, adding to the -2.5 point decline to 19.8 seen in October. The Treasury today will sell $13 billion in 10-year TIPS. There are 9 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Dollar Tree (consensus $0.60), Patterson Companies (0.48), Abercrombie & Fitch (0.44), Target (0.62), GameStop (0.57), Ross Stores (0.80), Gap (0.71), Intuit (-0.09), Autodesk (0.39).

Conferences during the remainder of this week include the following: UBS Global Technology Conference on Tue-Thu, Los Angeles Auto Show-Press Days on Tue-Thu, Goldman Sachs Metals & Mining Steel Conference on Wed-Thu, Morgan Stanley Technology Media & Telecoms Conference on Wed-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Energy Conference on Thu, Jefferies Global Health Care Conference on Thu, and 11th Annual MIT Sloan CFO Summit on Thu.

 

 

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Dollar Tree (DLTR -0.66%) reported Q3 EPS of 58 cents, weaker than consensus of 60 cents.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF -0.54%) reported Q3 EPS of 52 cents, higher than consensus of 44 cents.

Target (TGT -0.21%) reported Q3 EPS of 54 cents, below consensus of 62 cents.

Reuters reports that U.S. regulators are considering whether to give banks more time to comply with the Volcker rule.

Donaldson (DCI -0.53%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 41 cents, better than consensus of 39 cents.

Raytheon (RTN -0.11%) announced that its board authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $2 billion of the company's outstanding common stock.

Jack in the Box (JACK +0.27%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 45 cents, higher than consensus of 39 cents.

L Brands (LTD +0.61%) reported Q3 EPS of 31 cents, stronger than consensus of 28 cents.

Williams-Sonoma (WSM -0.27%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 58 cents, better than consensus of 55 cents.

Green Mountain (GMCR +0.65%) jumped nearly 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 89 cents, well above consensus of 75 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ13 +0.15%) this morning are up +2.25 points (+0.13%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed lower. Stocks rallied early after (1) U.S. Oct retail sales rose +0.4% and +0.2% ex autos, better than expectations of +0.1% and +0.1% ex autos, and (2) the ECB said it is considering a negative deposit rate to help bolster the European economy. However, stocks shed their gains and turned lower after the Oct 29-30 FOMC minutes stated that the Fed may reduce economic stimulus “in coming months” as the economy improves. Closes: S&P 500 -0.36%, Dow Jones -0.41%, Nasdaq 100 -0.32%.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ13 -0.04%) this morning are down -3.5 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note prices on Wednesday closed lower after the release of the Oct 29-30 FOMC meeting minutes stated that the FOMC might reduce asset purchases “in coming months” as the economy improves. Closes: TYZ3 -12.00, FVZ3 unch.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.11%) this morning is down -0.140 (-0.17%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0028 (+0.21%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.73 (+0.73%) at a 4-1/4 month high. The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher. The dollar found support on the hawkish minutes from the Oct 29-30 FOMC meeting and the strength in U.S. Oct retail sales that bolstered speculation the Fed may soon taper QE3. EUR/USD retreated from a 2-week high and closed lower on a report that the ECB is considering a negative deposit rate if more economic stimulus is needed. Closes: Dollar index +0.408 (+0.51%), EUR/USD -0.0099 (-0.73%), USD/JPY -0.105 (-0.10%).

Jan WTI crude oil (CLF14 +0.25%) this morning is up +32 cents (+0.34%) and Jan gasoline (RBF14 +0.33%) is up +0.0103 (+0.39%). Jan crude oil and gasoline prices on Wednesday settled mixed. Crude prices erased an early rally and closed lower after the Oct 29-30 FOMC meeting minutes bolstered the prospects for the Fed to taper QE3. Gasoline gained on bullish factors that included (1) the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. Oct retail sales, a sign of economic strength, and (2) the unexpected decline in weekly EIA gasoline inventories by -345,000 bbl to an 11-3/4 month low of 208.9 million bbl. Closes: CLF4 -0.04 (-0.04%), RBF4 +0.0259 (+0.99%).

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR11/21/2013
US 0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -4,000 to 335,000, previous -2,000 to 339,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -4,000 to 2.870 million, previous unch at 2.874 million.
0830 ET Oct PPI expected -0.2% m/m and +0.3% y/y, Sep -0.1% m/m and +0.3% y/y. Oct PPI ex food & energy expected +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Sep +0.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y.
0830 ET USDA weekly Export Sales.
1000 ET Nov Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index expected -4.8 to 15.0, Oct -2.5 to 19.8.
1000 ET Senate Banking Committee votes on confirmation of Janet Yellen as the new Fed Chair.
1100 ET Treasury announces amount of 2-year T-notes (previous $32 billion), 5-year T-notes (previous $35 billion) and 7-year T-notes (previous $29 billion) to be auctioned Nov 25-27.
1230 ET Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks on the economic outlook at an event in Asheboro, NC.
1300 ET Treasury auctions $13 billion in 10-year TIPS.
1300 ET St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks on the economy and monetary policy at the Center for Business and Economic Research at eh University of Arkansas.
JPN 0100 ET Revised Japan Oct machine tool orders, previous +8.4% y/y.
n/a BOJ announces interest rate decision.
GER 0330 ET German Nov PMI manufacturing expected +0.3 to 52.0, Oct +0.6 to 51.7. Nov PMI services expected +0.1 to 53.0, Oct -0.8 to 52.9.
EUR 0400 ET Eurozone Nov PMI manufacturing expected +0.2 to 51.5, Oct +0.2 to 51.3. Nov PMI services expected +0.3 to 51.9, Oct -0.6 to 51.6. Eurozone Nov PMI composite expected +0.1 to 52.0, Oct -0.3 to 51.9.
1000 ET Eurozone Nov consumer confidence expected +0.5 to -14.0, Oct -14.5.
UK 0430 ET UK Oct public sector net borrowing expected +5.1 billion pounds, Sep +9.4 billion pounds.
0600 ET UK Nov CBI trends total orders expected 1, Oct -4. Nov CBI trends selling prices expected unch at -3, Oct -2.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR11/21/2013
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Dollar Tree Inc DLTR US Bef-mkt Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 0.597
Patterson Cos Inc PDCO US Bef-mkt Q2 2014 Earnings Release Q2 2014 0.479
Abercrombie & Fitch Co ANF US 7:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 0.444
Target Corp TGT US 7:30 Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 0.623
Abercrombie & Fitch Co ANF US 8:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014
GameStop Corp GME US 8:30 Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 0.57
Transocean Ltd RIG US 8:30 Investor Day Y 2013
Dollar Tree Inc DLTR US 9:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Call C3 2014
Dollar Tree Inc DLTR US 9:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014
CBRE Group Inc CBG US 9:00 Business Review Day Y 2013
Johnson Controls Inc JCI US 9:00 Business Update Call
L Brands Inc LTD US 9:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014
Patterson Cos Inc PDCO US 10:00 Q2 2014 Earnings Call Q2 2014
Target Corp TGT US 10:30 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014
GameStop Corp GME US 11:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014
Intel Corp INTC US 11:10 Investor Meeting Y 2013
Ross Stores Inc ROST US 16:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 0.799
Gap Inc/The GPS US 16:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 0.705
Ross Stores Inc ROST US 16:15 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014
Intuit Inc INTU US 16:30 Q1 2014 Earnings Call Q1 2014
Gap Inc/The GPS US 17:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014
Autodesk Inc ADSK US 17:00 Q3 2014 Earnings Call Q3 2014
Intuit Inc INTU US Aft-mkt Q1 2014 Earnings Release Q1 2014 -0.094
Autodesk Inc ADSK US Aft-mkt Q3 2014 Earnings Release Q3 2014 0.389
Equifax Inc EFX US Investor Meeting - London Y 2013
Humana Inc HUM US Investor Meeting Y 2013


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Barchart U.S. Morning Call is written by the experienced members of the Commodity Research Bureau and the Barchart Research Team.  Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) has been providing research to the financial and commodity community since 1934.  If you have any questions for our analysts, please contact us at support@crbtrader.com.

Sent every morning, "Morning Call" summarizes overnight global market news, along with a U.S. market forecast for the day ahead. It Includes upcoming earnings reports, a global financial calendar, and quote board overview of where the markets are standing.

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