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Tradable Events this Week


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Tradable Events this Week

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The U.S and China trade spat will remain front and center after it was reported the White House plans to impose $200 billion worth of tariffs on China as early as Monday. Although Treasury Secretary Mnuchin scheduled a new round of trade talks, President Trump will continue his hard-lined approach as he plans to move forward with implementation. In consolation, this third wave of tariffs and what we have called the official start of the trade war could be as little as 10% on goods rather than the 25% initially threatened. As expected, traders and investors will live by these developments to start the week.

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The 10-year yield hit 3% on Friday, Bill Baruch talked about it on Bloomberg TV.

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On Friday, the S&P notched its second highest close ever. The 10-year yield finished at 2.99%, the highest since settling at 3.005% on August 1st. Also, the Dollar Index gained nearly 0.5%. It was no surprise to see major U.S equity benchmarks work their way back near record highs after both CPI and PPI missed expectations because that would keep the Federal Reserve on their accommodative path. However, the Dollar and yields ignored the data after two Fed officials took a more hawkish approach. First, Fed Governor Brainard who has been more cautious when speaking of the Feds path of hikes began to turn more hawkish this summer. Furthermore, last week she was outright hawkish advocating for the expected hike next week, one in December and more to follow in order to regain neutral ground and keep inflation under wraps. This was a different tone than the one we have been hearing from Fed Chair Powell; that there is no fear inflation will run away. But lets remember, inflation data in the latter half of last week was softer than many feared. Additionally, Chicago Fed President Evans who actually dissented last December also took a more hawkish tone last week. The Feds quiet period begins this week ahead of next weeks meeting. Our takeaway here is that while we have believed the international trade dispute will keep the Feds path of hikes gradual, there is some discomfort among members as asset prices remain elevated and growth remains robust in the U.S despite those fears. Let the discussion begin; what will the Feds rhetoric on inflation be next week?

On the data front this week we look to the final August Eurozone CPI read on Monday along with the German Bundesbanks Monthly Report. Monday night, Australias RBA meets. The Bank of Japan meets Tuesday night. On Wednesday, we get CPI from the U.K. Housing data from the U.S will trickle out Wednesday and Thursday. The biggest data points of the week come Friday with flash (preliminary) September PMIs from both the Eurozone and U.S.

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About the author


Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

 
 
Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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