rounded corner
rounded corner
top border

The Great Bear


Bookmark and Share

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Midwest Market Solutions and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Midwest Market Solutions Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.


DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.


The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Midwest Market Solutions believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice.There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Below are a few paragraphs I wrote on November, 2013 in a chapter entitled, The Great Bear from my book, Haunted By Markets. I hope you find them of interest.

-------------------------------------------------------------------


"Because of my bearish outlook, many are dubbing me, The Bear. One fellow called me, The Great Bear. It seems my sour outlook for stocks and commodities has struck a sensitive chord with those following my weekly ramblings. But believe me, I am not the Great Bear. I do, however, know who held that particular title in years gone by.


Jesse Livermore, born in 1877 and passed away in 1940 was known as the Boy Plunger and the Great Bear of Wall Street. Mr. Livermore, according to Wikipedia, was famed for making and losing several multi-million dollar fortunes and short selling during the stock market crashes of 1907 and 1929. He subsequently, lost both fortunes.


The Saturday Evening Post between June 10, 1922 and May 26, 1923, published twelve thinly veiled biographical stories about Jesse Livermore collectively entitled, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. The author was Edwin Lefevre, a journalist. The lead character in Mr. Lefevre's book was Lawrence Livingston, a fictionalized Jesse Livermore.


The Wall Street Journal has described, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator as a classic. It was ranked #15, on Fortune's 75: The Smartest Books We Know. Alan Greenspan, former Fed Chairman once said the book is, a font of investing wisdom. And despite the fact the book is nine decades old, it continues to offer insights into investing and trading.


Here are just a handful of my favorite quotes from, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator the classic book about the Great Bear of Wall Street, Jesse Livingston. "Nowhere does history indulge in repetitions so often or so uniformly as in Wall Street. When you read contemporary accounts of booms or panics the one thing that strikes you most forcibly is how little either stock speculation or stock speculators today differ from yesterday. The game does not change and neither does human nature."


"There is profit in studying the human factors the ease with which human beings believe what it pleases them to believe; and how they allow themselves indeed urge themselves to be influenced by their cupidity or by the dollar-cost of the average mans carelessness. Fear and hope remain the same; therefore the study of the psychology of speculators is as valuable as it ever was. "


"I never argue with the tape. Getting sore at the market doesn't get you anywhere. "


"A stock operator has to fight a lot of expensive enemies within himself. "


"There is one side to the stock market and it is not the bull side or bear side, but the right side. "


"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of greed, fear, ignorance and hope."

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you can get your hands on, "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" do so. It is indeed a classic and once read, you will have a better understanding about markets. And about yourself.


This past week was simply wild and crazy for stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities. The sheer volatility seen with virtually all markets was surreal. And with the Fed on course to hike rates sooner than later amid a smoking hot labor market and wage growth the best in 9 years, expect more wild and crazy times ahead.


Be sure to check out www.commodityinsite.com. It is there you will find, "Haunted By Markets. " And keep in mind with a purchase you receive 1 full month of my twice a day newsletter Commodity Insite. A heck of deal.


And also keep in mind, "There is one side to the stock market and it is not the bull side or bear side, but the right side" as Jesse Livermore was fond of saying.


10:15 a.m. Chicago, Saturday September 15.







Recent articles from this author



About the author


Jerry Welch has been in the futures industry since the late 1970's and is a true veteran of the markets. He has been quoted often in Wall Street Journal and is author of Commodity Insite, one of the longest commodity futures newspaper columns in history. His weekly column has been published each week since the mid 1980's and is one of the most recognized names in the world of commodities.

Mr. Welch is also known widely as a, "so so" flyfisherman.  

His column is published by the Illinois Agri News in La Salle, Illinois, Cattle Today, in Fayette, Alabama as well as Consensus, in Kansas City, Kansas.

He can be contacted at 406.682.5010 for a view of his, "twice a day" market column that includes price forecasts and trading suggestions.

Published by Barchart
Home  •  Charts & Quotes  •  Commentary  •  Authors  •  Education  •  Broker Search  •  Trading Tools  •  Help  •  Contact  •  Advertise With Us  •  Commodities
Markets: Currencies  •   Energies  •   Financials  •   Grains  •   Indices  •   Meats  •   Metals  •   Softs

The information contained on InsideFutures.com is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Market data is furnished on an exchange delayed basis by Barchart.com. Data transmission or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. No information on the site, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. InsideFutures.com is not a broker, nor does it have an affiliation with any broker.


Copyright ©2005-2018 InsideFutures.com, a Barchart.com product. All rights reserved.

About Us  •   Sitemap  •   Terms of Use  •   Privacy Policy