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Wheat Commentary - Just My Opinion


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July Chgo Wheat closed 15 cents lower ($5.01 ), Sept 15 cents lower ($5.17 ) & Dec 16 cents lower ($5.40)

July KC Wheat closed 16 cents lower ($5.22 ), Sept 16 cents lower ($5.38 ) & Dec 16 cents lower ($5.62)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales 302.3 K t. old crop (2018/19) vs. 150-450 K T. expected no new crop (2019/20) vs. nothing expected

Technical selling rules the roost on Thursday as major support trend lines are taken out. The sharply higher US Dollar adds to the ugliness. Weekly export sales remain nothing to write home about. The ongoing harvest in the southwestern US HRW adds to the pessimism. Im hearing yields are poor but with good test weight and high protein. My bottomline recent spec longs in the KC market are heading for the hills.

Not much happens with the cash SRW market. Nearby Chgo spreads were firm but then tail off March forward. HRW bids are maintaining recent strength but spreads ran softer with the spec liquidation.

The technical look has gotten ugly in a hurry as prices close below the last 2 weeks of price action. The next level of suggested support is down another 10-15 cents. For this market to find support its going to take further crop deterioration overseas (Ukraine & Russia) or a settlement with the ongoing China/US rift (not that wheat is involved).

Daily Support & Resistance for 06/15

July Chgo Wheat: $4.95 ($4.90) - $5.15

July KC Wheat: $5.18 ($5.15) - $5.35

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.



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About the author


Tom Fritz is a third generation commodity futures trader. His grandfather and his father were traders on the exchange. Tom began his career in 1971 with Tabor Grain which was later acquired by Archer Daniels Midland. Prior to co-founding IFG in 1994 Tom was the lead Chicago Board of Trade floor analyst for ADM. He produces Just My Opinion, a daily grain commentary that is well respected and viewed all over the world.

 

 

Contributing author since 11/7/2017 

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