Increase in Risk-Tolerance Weighs on Dollar.
Monday, March 23, 2009
by Bob Kozak of C3I Capital Management, LLC
|
|
Dollar Index (DXM9): The DX opened lower at 83.96 as traders increased their 'risk-tolerance' ahead of the toxic-asset public bailout plan. Equity markets rose overseas and continued higher ahead of the U.S. open. Prices rose as equity prices retraced to morning lows, before continuing lower into the afternoon session against most major foreign currency markets. Prices ended the session at 83.94, down 40 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/weak momentum indicators. While 'quantitative easing' and the 'bailout' of banks toxic assets are helping to stimulate the flow of credit and higher equity prices, the DX will continue to toil until the yield-gap closes or the ECB follows the same plan. A lower open may find Support at 83.32 and 82.70, while an open above 83.99 should find Resistance at 84.61 and 85.28. Euro Currency (ECM9): The EC opened higher at 1.3587 and slid to a morning Lo of 1.3485, before continuing higher throughout the session along with equity prices, as risk-tolerance increased and traders rotated out of safe-haven assets; Treasuries, Dollars and Yen. Prices rose into the afternoon and ended the session at 1.3630, up 78 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ over-bot momentum indicators. The inability to close above the previous Target Hi at 1.3737 on 3/19, along w/ comments from ECB member Alex Weber that further easing is likely, should weigh on prices over the medium term. Longs should tighten 'stops' or buy 'puts' to reduce exposure. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.3749 and 1.3868, while an open below 1.3617 may find Support at 1.3498 and 1.3366.
Recent articles from this author
- Dollar 'Pauses' Ahead of FOMC Results. - Tuesday, August 11, 2009
- Cable Breaks Out on PMI Report, DX Drop. - Monday, August 03, 2009
- Sterling 'Shines' As Housing & Stocks Prices Increase. - Thursday, July 30, 2009
- Chinese Equity Correction Sparks Flight to Quality in DX. - Wednesday, July 29, 2009
- Canadian Sets New High for 2009. - Monday, July 27, 2009
About the author
Bob Kozak, Currency Futures Analyst C3I Capital Management, LLC Bob Kozak is the Senior Currency Futures Analyst and Managing Principal at C3I Capital Management, LLC. He has been involved in the financial markets since 1978, when he was recruited as portfolio strategist for a major Wall Street firm. With a degree in Mathematics from the University of Massachusetts, he was drawn towards technical analysis. He moved into the retail sector as a Certified Financial Planner, assisting clients in structuring an investment portfolio suitable for their particular needs, emphasizing income and risk management. A unique opportunity to mentor under a former Chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade enticed Bob into the commodities arena. Bob eventually managed the office of his mentor, before the firm was purchased and relocated to Chicago. Bob follows most futures markets using primarily Technical Analysis, and takes advantage of the strong correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and those futures purchased in Dollars. You can request a FREE 2-week trial subscription of PROBABLE DAILY & WEEKLY TRADING RANGES by calling Bob at (561) 674-0014 or email at bkozak@C3ICapital.com Bob has been a frequent contributor to many national publications, including Futures Magazine, Dow Jones Newswire, and Bloomberg FX -TV.
|