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Daily Rundown, Feb 19


Stocks are indicated higher as investors brace for a busy day of economic news. Less than an hour before the opening bell on Wall Street, stock index futures suggest that the Dow Jones Industrial Average might add 50 or 60 points in early trading.  The NASDAQ is indicated about 10 points higher.

Economic data will guide some of the trading today. A report released early showed weekly jobless claims a bit higher than expected last week. According to the Labor Department, the number of filings for jobless benefits was unchanged at 627,000 in the week ended February 14. Economists had predicted a decline to 620,000. 

Meanwhile, wholesale prices are on the rise. According to the Labor Department, the Producer Price Index [PPI] spiked .8 percent last month. Economists had predicted a more modest advance of .2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI rose .4 percent, compared to economist estimates for a .1 percent gain.  

Stock index futures had already moved higher ahead of the news and showed little reaction to the data.

Bonds saw some selling pressure. The yield on the benchmark ten-year Treasury is moving back above 2.8 percent, up from about 2.73 percent the day before.

The buck gained .091 to 93.73 on the yen and the euro is fighting back, up .00156 to 1.2716 against the US dollar.

The list of economic indicators and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey are due out at 10:00 ET. Economists expect to see no change (0 percent) in the indicators for January and the Fed survey is expected to fall from -24.3 to -25 in February.

Crude oil gained $1 to $35.62 ahead of inventory numbers due out at 11:00. Gold is up $4 to $982.2 an ounce.  

Among the stocks to watch, Hewlett Packard (HPQ) shares fell 13 percent after the company reported earnings that met Street estimates, but revenues that fell well short of expectations. Sprint Nextel (S) said it suffered a loss of a penny per share in the most recent quarter, which not as bad as the three-cent loss analysts had expected. Shares are moving back above $3 on the news. UBS (UBS) moved higher in overseas trading after a $780 million settlement with the Department of Justice wasn't as bad as feared.    

Trading was active in the options market Wednesday heading into the expiration. The stock market averages didn't do much. The Dow closed up 3 points. The CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) hit a low of 46 and closed down .20 to 48.46. Approximately 7.6 million calls and 7.1 million puts traded across the exchanges.  

Frontier Oil (FTO) saw bullish trading even as a number of oil refiners (TSO, SUN, VLO, HOC) saw relative weakness on the session. FTO closed down $1.81 to $13.53 and 3,100 March calls at the $15 strike traded on the day. It looked like call buyers were active in the contract, perhaps on the view Wednesday's plunge in the share price is overdone.  Bullish trading was also seen in Taiwan Semiconductor (TWN), Calpine (CPN), and MarineMax (HZO).   

Oil and gas driller Nabors Industries (NBR) fell to its lowest levels since 2001 Wednesday as the slump in crude oil prices continues. Crude was down 43 cents to $34.50 a barrel Wednesday. Shares of Nabors lost 46 cents to $9.69 and 7,419 Feb 10 puts traded. Looked like buyers taking positions on concerns about additional weakness today and tomorrow. February contracts expire Saturday.  Bearish trading was also seen in Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY), Caterpillar (CAT), Alliance Data Systems (ADS), and the PHLX Euro Spot Index (.XDE).   


Frederic Ruffy
WhatsTrading.com


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About the author


Frederic Ruffy is the Senior Options Strategist at Whatstrading.com, a site dedicated to helping traders make sense of the complex and fragmented nature of listed options trading.

In addition to writing market commentary and trading-related books and articles, Fred has also worked as an instructor, educating investors on advanced topics like measuring volatility, the benefits of sector rotation and the risks and potential profits from trading around earnings. His market observations are mentioned frequently in the financial press including Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, MarketWatch, and Bloomberg.

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