ESZ8 DECEMBER EMINI SP500 DAILY:
November Initial Claims 509k, Expected 540k. This turned out to be a non-event as the market digested the information and was somewhat surprised and relieved it was lower than expected. However in the background was the congressional hearing with the automakers. A vote may come next week, many are optimistic of a deal possibly being done but the markets remain weary which is only right in my opinion when we are in a very weak and bearish market. Regardless of the bailout, many have already lost their jobs as unemployment claims continue to be rising. Goldman forecasts the jobless rate will climb to 9 percent by late 2009. Auto workers and the middle class workers have been hit the hardest as illustrated below. In my opinion, when middle class is losing their jobs, don't expect them to go on any spending spree no matter how much credit they try to pump into the system.
Biggest driving factor for Friday: Unemployment rate expected 6.8% compared with prior of 6.5% and Nonfarm payrolls expected -325k compared with prior of -240k. Market bulls will need Thursdays lows of 832 to hold to prevent a possible test of Monday's lows of 813 and then November lows of 739. Bearish formation will need to be violated by breaking above 875.50 highs and then 900.
UNADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS FOR WEEK ENDED 11/22/2008
TOP 6 STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000KY | +4,992 |
| Layoffs in the automobile and manufacturing industries. |
MO | +5,820 |
| Layoffs in the construction and manufacturing industries. |
IN | +6,501 |
| Layoffs in the automobile and manufacturing industries. |
MI | +6,611 |
| Layoffs in the construction and manufacturing industries. |
OH | +6,658 |
| Layoffs in the automobile and manufacturing industries. |
CA | +10,882 |
| Layoffs in the service and manufacturing industries. |
(source:http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm)
ESZ8 DECEMBER EMINI SP500 WEEKLY:
YMZ8 DECEMBER EMINI DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE DAILY:
Aggressive sellers will come in if Thursday lows of 8255 are taken out along with 8200. This would bring the market back inside the range with an objective for bears to retest November lows.
$VIX VOLATILITY INDEX DAILY:
Volatility is trading within the middle of the 3 month range. Attempt to move higher. Gap down to 55 was never filled from last friday.
CLF9 JANUARY LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL DAILY:
After losing November lows of 48.25, crude oil has continued its slippery slope down to a low of 43.36 Thursday. Bargain hunters may bid market back to up retest 48-50 levels as aggressive sellers may continue to sell those rallies and look for 50 to resist.
GCG9 APRIL GOLD DAILY: 
Gold tries to hold 20 day moving average (762.4) and trend line that was taken out by the breakout late last month. Aggressive buyers will buy here and use 760 as support. Both gold and dollar are at a critical point, if we see dollar index move lower then this will be the driving force for gold to pick up and move higher.
SIH9 MARCH SILVER WEEKLY:
Silver continues to remain trapped within a $2 range. I still beleive the market will need a close above 11 to clear away from this downtrend to attempt any type of rally.
DXZ8 DECEMBER US DOLLAR INDEX DAILY:
The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates on Dec 16 to .50% from its current level of 1.00%.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND SUCH INVESTING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE MORE THAN THE INITIAL INVESTMENT.
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