Gold can go either way
Thursday, December 04, 2008
by Ira Epstein of Ira Epstein & Company
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12-4-2008 As many of you know, I publish my Mid-Day Videos both on the IECo Website and on YouTube. The videos on the IECo Website will have a much better look and playback quality than those on YouTube because of the technology we employ. Try viewing, by clicking on the link below and you should see the difference. http://www.iepstein.com/videos_start.aspx
Gold a winner for 2008? Not really as Gold is down on a year to year basis. Deflation, Inflation, Depression Take your pick what 2009 will bring. My expectation, no matter the outcome in 2009, is that Gold will prove to be one of 2009's better "safe haven investments". Just this year alone we've witnessed a burst in the inflation bubble along with a massive onset of deflation. We've witnessed so much deflation that Crude Oil Prices are down in but a few months over $100 a barrel, a loss of nearly 2/3rds of its value. Corn prices have fallen nearly 60% or so. Most major stock indices are down 40% or more this year. Gold is also down this year as well. Gold closed 2007 near $840 an ounce. The February Gold contract is currently trading near $765, so year to date Gold has lost nearly 75$ an ounce. A 9% loss year to date. Obviously Gold bought by foreigners trading in Euro's or other major currencies to buy Gold may have turned a profit since the Dollar has rallied about 12% against many major currencies. However, getting fancy about Gold investing is not what it's about. As I see it, regardless of what economic outcome we see in 2009, my expectation is for Gold to play an important role in wealth preservation. Interest rates are so low that in some cases buying a treasury instrument costs more than the interest earned. More important, I see Governments around the world spending funds they don't have in a desperate move to shore up their economies. Seeing the enormous amount spent by the US Government on bailouts means at some point the value of the Dollar comes into question. As such, I don't have a lot of faith in the value of the Dollar holding up in 2009. If the Dollar falls, that should support Gold. As simple as it seems, once money starts being lent by banks and Mortgage Company's, that lending process will go a long way in removing fear about the future. Right now, the mentality one of overwhelming doom and gloom, so much so that around the world people now fear another Great Depression. Assuming Governments get money moving, once those funds begins to move through the economy, that money begins to chase goods and services. Goods and services that there will be fewer of due to the world economic slowdown. The seeds of inflation are therefore in place. It's a change in money movement and economic mentality that is necessary to trigger it. Keep in mind that at market bottoms things always looks their worse, just as at tops they look their best. Economically speaking, things are bad and look bad. The Quarterly Gold Chart When in the midst of Capitulation, I like to look at longer term charts. Namely the Quarterly Chart of Gold prices. The Quarterly Gold Chart Look at the Quarterly Chart below of Gold prices.  Prices on the Quarterly Gold Chart have prices trading over the 18-Quarter Moving Average of Closes, which is in and of itself "Bullish". Support in this case is the 18-Period Average at 638.4. The negative is that the "Swingline Study" shown in yellow, currently has a pattern of a Lower Lows and a Lower Highs, which is the definition of a Downtrend In order to reverse the momentum prices currently have to take out the most recent Swingline High, shown on this chart as 989.6. Gold's Weekly Chart Let's narrow in our time table and look at a Weekly Gold Chart. 
A bit different story is shown here. The Swingline is up but prices are trading under the 18-Day Moving Average of Closes. This chart could turn Bullish by just prices just closing back up and over the 18-Week Moving Average of Closes. If that occurred, a purchase might be in order. Stochastics (SSTO) are neutral, with readings in the 30 to 40 zone. Daily Chart The Daily Chart of February Gold is in the process of determining what next. 
The Daily February Gold Chart is narrowing in. support is seen between the 18-Day Moving Average of Closes and the last Swingline Low, 761.8. Prices can go either way since the Swingline Study is pointing down but prices are trading over the 18-Day Moving Average of Closes. Gold's Seasonal Story It's important to look at the Seasonal Chart below, as provided to us by The Moore Research Center...http://www.mrci.com/. 
Seasonally speaking, there is reason to go with an Upside Breakout if one occurs. Assuming February Gold holds and get back over $822, the trend will turn up. On the Daily Chart this can also occur with a new Swingline High, one that moves down which is not difficult to do. Seasonality this year has been a hard act to follow, especially as outside markets continue to break down. Deflation at anytime is something that can overwhelm Gold. It is Gold's enemy, but one that I question of the Automakers get their bailout and if the Fed figures out a way to get Mortgage Rates down.  What to do? Look to see if breakouts take place and go with them using Options, not Futures Contracts. Do not anticipate a breakout.
I receive a lot of questions on how I use Stochastics in my price analysis. I teach how I use them in my trading course called The Futures Academy. I've created a short video that explains my teaching style. In the video I speak about The Futures Academy and the indicators I use in my trade analysis. You can click on the image below if you are online or simply type the link address below the video image into your web browser. 
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Disclaimer: This publication is strictly the opinion of its writer and is intended solely for informative purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. Information is taken from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures and Options on Futures trading involve risk. In no event should the content of this market letter be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Ira Epstein & Company or Shatkin Arbor, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. Past results are no indication
Recent articles from this author
- Gold can go either way - Thursday, December 04, 2008
- Gold ...could the current price break be setting tGold up for a year end rally? - Thursday, November 06, 2008
- Gold and Silver Break Down - Thursday, October 16, 2008
- Metdown in Stocks offer Bid to Gold and Silver - Thursday, October 09, 2008
- Washout Does Not Provide Gold or Silver Safe Haven Status - Monday, September 15, 2008
About the author
In 1984 Ira Epstein & Company was founded by Ira Epstein. Ira was a highly successful retail futures broker, having mastered TV to showcase his talents, which in turned helped Ira develop and create a very large customer following. Many of you may remember his TV show "Stocks, Options and Futures", which was one of the most popular Finance Television shows on what was then called The Financial News Network, which is now known as CNBC. Ira showcased his talents in many other TV markets as well, including Los Angeles where he was a regular guest on KWHY-TV as well as WCIU-TV in Chicago, where he was on the air for nearly 20 years. Ira Epstein...the man behind Ira Epstein & Company Ira's background...written by Ira I was born in Chicago in the mid-forties. A War Baby. Graduated High School in Park Ridge, Ill and went on to college. I obtained my Bachelor of Science Degree from Arizona State University, majoring in Marketing and Economics. I completed courses toward a Masters Degree and attended John Marshall Law School in Chicago. When in Law School, I needed a part-time job. While my family helped with my schooling costs, they simply could not carry the continuing financial burden of Law School. I needed a job. Ira discovers the Futures Market One day I found myself looking for a job on the Law School's Bulletin Board. I noticed a job offer for a "Runner". I had no idea what that meant, but I was thin and in good shape. Ready to run. Few people outside of Chicago knew at that time, 1969, knew much about the Futures Markets, including me. I applied for the job and was hired at G.H. Miller & Company. They were a clearing firm at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange(CME), specializing in the trading of Eggs and Broilers...chickens. Turns out they were pretty good at what they did. So I began running. Orders were phoned in by brokers to Miller's trade desk on the exchange floor. My first job was to "run" the order into the appropriate filling broker. I had a knack for it, but have to tell you that running wasn't really allowed. Just fast walking. Very fast walking. I also became the designated employee to take Polaroid Pictures of the chalk boards. No computer boards on the exchange back then. Rather, the exchange had employees who used chalk to write on blackboards the price a trade took place at in the order they were called up to the chalkboard writer. It looked very very chaotic, but it worked. As the blackboard filled with prices, those boards were handed down to ground staff who took Polaroid photo's of them to both track official pricing and provide member firms with trade records. The boards were than washed and put back up. My job was to take pictures of the boards or photo's of the pictures themselves. Fun times. All the while I was still in Law School. School began late in the afternoon and the markets back than ended at 1:00 P.M. I was burning the candle from both ends, studying hard, writing legal brief and whatever. Who cared. I was young and eager. I found myself liking the market. Really liking it. I was fortunate to find that making contacts with "important people' in the business was easy on the exchange floor. In fact, many of the owners of trading companies you know of quickly became influential in my life. Keep in mind that basically I had "nothing", and here I was talking and soon socializing daily with multimillionaires. I remember making $35 a week gross, owning 6 shirts and 3 pair of pants. all specific to work. My boss, Gil Miller continually told me I was being overpaid given the education I was getting. It was mind boggling, but true. Promotion and more... In a very short time promotions began. First to Order Taker and than to running part of the trade desk. I became very good at it and was assigned to one of Gil Miller's largest clients. His name was Ray E.Friedman. I worked as his personal trade deskman. Ray later sent his son to Chicago to learn the business. I shared a small office with his son, Tom Dittmer for quite a while. Today you know that company as Refco. I found Law School less and less appealing. I'd made a lot of friends and acquaintances early on at the exchange. I was never bashful and constantly asked about the markets. I needed to learn and who better from than the pro's. I was surprised at how helpful some were. Leo Melamed, the founder of the IMM division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Barry Lind of Lind-Waldock offered solid advice early in my career. They were always there, answering all my questions. I watched these men, what they did, how they did it and followed my closest mentor, Gil Miller into the unknown. My parents at that time were convinced Futures Brokers were professional gamblers. The big event... O.K. Here I am watching everyone getting rich but me. It looked so simple. I had to try it. After all, I was on the trading floor, in the thick of things and couldn't miss. I had a few months of learning under my belt and "knew" how to do it. I won't bore you with all the details. You already know how it turned out. My family gave me some funds they really couldn't afford to lose. Market went against me, I had no stop, the market was of course "wrong", but I had lost more than I had in the trading account. All in but a few hours. Quite a feat. Had no way to pay it back. In panic I even resorted to calling my college roommate, pleading for help. His dad said he'd come to my aid...partially, but couldn't cover the whole loss. After exhausting all my resources, which didn't take very long, I came to the dreaded realization that by the morning my goose was cooked. I could not cover the debit and was in deep trouble. I couldn't let that happen. Late in the day, that tragic day, I walked into Mr. Miller's office and asked to speak with him. We sat down and he began talking about my progress. I didn't know if he knew about my debit or not. I then, practically choking to death, broke the news to him about the debit, hoping for some mercy. His reaction surprised me. He got up and asked me to follow him. I did. He showed me his personal shower, his sofa, stereo equipment and asked how I liked his office. I of course told him I "loved it" and was so thankful for the opportunity he had given me. He smiled, went to either his drawer or a closet, I forget which, brought out an old hotplate and handed it to me. I must've thought he was giving it all to me. Well, he said something like, "I'm glad you love it. You now live here. You can use the shower and sleep on the sofa. Be out when I get to work. Now go to work and pay me back". I ended up living in that office for a bit of time. I do mean living...not just working. One of the best times of my life. By the way, looking back on it, I know he knew before I ever walked into his office, about the debit. Did I say I also got a raise? Maybe he liked how I handled myself in terms of being honest and addressing the situation head on... or maybe he knew I couldn't afford food after my trading fiasco. I quit Law School. Had to. Didn't have the funds to continue, owed too many people money and frankly found something I had really had a passion for. I turned my attention full time to the markets. I registered and became a licensed broker. Back then there were no exams to become a broker. No studying. You simply signed up at the front desk of the exchange, listing your name, social security number and an address on a white legal pad. You were a broker. How things have changed. The rest of the story... I worked for several years both on the trading floor and up in the office as a registered broker. I discovered I had a knack for marketing, but wasn't the best trader. I knew enough to go looking for help. I learned a lot from the "old-timers" in the building, and there were plenty of them. They never seemed to go home. I remember spending literally hundreds of hours in Barry Lind's offices. I found traders everywhere. They saw I was interested and many took the time out to teach me trading disciplines. I wish there were space to name them all. In any case, I think of them often. Eventually my turn came. I had a membership at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. My dream had come true. Or had it? The rest of the story... I vividly recollect my early dreams. I, probably like many others before me envisioned my life in the trading pits as something very different than it turned out to be. Being a runner, phone clerk and customer's broker was one thing. Trading in the pits another. It didn't take long for me to discover I liked trading outside of the pit way better than in it. The screaming and intimidation when I was trying to buy or sell a few contracts, while watching the multimillionaire trader next to me offering hundreds of contracts on the other side of the trade can shake the strongest of wills. Needless to say, I didn't stay long in the pits. As it turned out, that was a smart move for me. Skipping forward.... For 15-years I honed my talents at G.H. Miller & Company. I developed strong marketing and trading talents, which enabled me to develop and build a large retail client base. My business eventually grew too large for G.H. Miller & Company to handle. When that happened it was Gil Miller who setup my move to Shatkin Trading, with partners Hank Shatkin and Pat Arbor. Pat was recently past Chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade and Hank is one of the most well known and liked traders at the CBOT, running a large floor trader operation. The rest is simply history and my other accomplishments...well there's been a lot. Ira Epstein & Company continues to flourish and grow. What makes us unique is how quickly we adapt to change and embrace technology in the market place. I can't emphasize enough the word "we". The staff at Ira Epstein & Company is dedicated to our clients. Our staff realized that to survive, one has to evolve. We do just that. However, along this ever changing trip, we stay fixed on who we are and who we service. The Futures Academy Life has changed a lot since I began in this business. One of the things I notice is that because of technology, specifically the Internet, personal contact is lost. When I was trying to learn trading, I could knock on doors and speak with seasoned traders. That can't be done today. Most traders now have computers at home, making long hours at the office a thing of the past. There's a void that needs to be filled. Win or lose, you the client pay commissions to trade. I'd rather take the commission out of winning trades than add them to losing trades. I have no "Holy Grail". No get rich quick system. What I do have is a trading discipline that I believe in and that can be easily taught. Years ago I learned that most good traders are disciplined. They work off a checklist. That list can be written or innate. A few years back I co-authored a book called, "The Psychology of Smart Money". The premise was a comparison of professional traders versus amatures. We looked for differences in each group. What we found was profound... and obvious. The pro's had discipline. They worked at maintaining their discipline. The average trading client, the amature, had little or no discipline. Rather, they often just took "shots" in marketplace, to often because "someone told them something". Not the best laid plan. Many amatures just wanted some market "action". The list goes on and on. I hope this doesn't hit home. If it does, it's simple to change and yes, you can still have the "action". The Futures Academy teaches a simple 5 step approach to trading. You must have a computer and Internet connection. We teach over the Internet, using a "live virtual classroom" where you and your mentor work privately together. No need to worry if you miss a classroom. We work around your schedule. No matter what your profession in life is, the odds are someone was looking over your shoulder when you first began. It's rare that one becomes a plumber, hair stylist or whatever without first becoming a "Journey Man". As a Journey Man you had a supervisor. That supervisor looked over what you were doing, to be sure you were doing it properly. That's how you learned in school. Your teacher did not pass out books at the beginning of a semester and say I'll see you at "final exams". Rather, they went through the books with you. The books had chapters. An order to each chapter. That's how The Futures Academy teaches trading. Each step builds on the next. You should take a look into it if you want to learn a disciplined trading skill. In any case, you now know something about Ira Epstein & Company. You'll find that some things don't change. We'll work hard for your business. Good luck and good trading to you. Ira Epstein
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