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Sterling 'Lower' Ahead of Proposed Rate Cut.


 

12/3/2008

British Pound (BPZ8):

The BP opened lower at 1.4755 and slid to a morning Lo of 1.4693 after a weaker than expected service sector report from the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) showing the index fell to 40.1, the lowest since the report began in 1996. The weakening economy will give reason for the MPC to lower rates Thursday from 50bps - 100bps from the current 3.00% level. Prices bounced to a morning Hi of 1.4827 as the DX retraced after weaker than expected ISM Non-Mfg. report. Prices trailed lower into the close and ended the session at 1.4726, dow 152 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ weak momentum indicators. Continued concern over the 'recessionary' environment and lower interest rates could see a test of the Target Low of 1.4551 on 11/13. A lower open may find Support at 1.4615 and 1.4503, while an open above 1.4774 should find Resistance at 1.4886 and 1.5045.

Dollar Index (DXZ8):

The DX opened higher at 87.32 against most major foreign currencies as 'risk aversion' saw tarders seek the safe haven and liquidity of the Greenback. Prices rose to our initial Resistance level of 87.38, before sliding to our Pivot level of 86.915 after a weaker than expected ISM Non-Mfg. Index report and ADP National Employment private sector report showed 250,000 more jobs lost in November. Prices bounced into the afternoon session as traders awaited the Beige Book report, which confirmed weakness throughout the 12 Fed Districts. Much of the weakness was discounted by the market as prices were quiet into the close of 87.18, up 36 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/neutral momentum indicators. Traders will look ahead to Friday's Payroll Report, which some economists estimate could show losses of up to 450,000 jobs and an increase in the employment rate to 6.8%. Any increase in prices Thursday should be hedged going into Friday's report. A higher open should find Resistance at 87.61 and 87.91, while an open below 87.13 may find Support at 86.84 and 86.36.

Euro Currency (ECZ8):

The EC opened lower at 1.2616 and slid to a morning Lo of 1.2597 against the weaker DX, as traders sought the safe-haven of the DX as weakness throughout the EZ ahead of Thursday's ECB rate meeting could see rate cuts from 50bps - 100bps, which would weigh on the EC. Prices bounced to a morning Hi of 1.2689 as the DX retreated after a weaker than expected ISM- Non Mfg Index report and a higher expectation for job losses in the private sector by ADP. Prices traded lower heading into the afternoon session, before testing our Pivot level of 1.2671 as we headed into the close, ending the session at 1.2550, down 46 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ neutal momentum indicators. Traders will await ECB President Trichet's comments after the rate decision to access the direction and timing of future cuts. A lower open may find Support at 1.2632 and 1.2613, while an open above 1.2658 should find Resistance at 1.2677 and 1.2703. 


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About the author


Bob Kozak, Currency Futures Analyst
Alaron, www.TheCommodityConsultant.com

Bob Kozak is the Senior Currency Futures Analyst  at Alaron Trading. He has been involved in the financial markets since 1978, when he was recruited as portfolio strategist for a major Wall Street firm. With a degree in Mathematics from the University of Massachusetts, he was drawn towards technical analysis. He moved into the retail sector as a Certified Financial Planner, assisting clients in structuring an investment portfolio suitable for their particular needs, emphasizing income and risk management. A unique opportunity to mentor under a former Chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade enticed Bob into the commodities arena. Bob eventually managed the office of his mentor, before the firm was purchased and relocated to Chicago.

Bob follows most futures markets using primarily Technical Analysis, and takes advantage of the strong correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and those futures purchased in Dollars. You can request a FREE 2-week trail subscription of 

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by calling Bob at 800-462-4691 or via e-mail at bkozak@alaron.com

Bob has been a frequent contributor to many national publications, including Futures Magazine, Dow Jones Newswire, and Bloomberg FX -TV.

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