MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WEDNESDAY, DEC. 3, 2008)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading in general, give me a call or email. I look forward to hearing from you!
GENERAL COMMENT: Yesterday all the markets sold off with the Dow. In reality what many of the markets did were test theirs lows (or highs) or breakouts: For example, gold tested its breakout of Nov. 21 from the congestion it had been stuck in for a about a month and a half. The FX from its pennant formation. Cocoa its breakout over the 21.00 resistance on the 25th. The dollar and yen another attempt at their highs.
And the Emini sold off from the 900.00 resistance - just like it did from the 1000.00 resistance - heading for its new low. However, the Emini has a different bottom formation under it now then it did when it reached 1000.00 And that bottom formation is a key reversal bottom. That is important because technically that suggests a trend change from down to up. That is the first attempt by the market to establish a bottom formation since this market collapsed in October.
Consequently, a test of that low that holds could be very significant. That test could hold at the current 813.00 low made today or it could sell off more. You just don't know. As long as it holds 739.00, that is key. If not, then the bottom is obviously not in place. If it does, you should see some pretty strong rallies in other markets and possibly even before then. Why? As mentioned before, several markets are already becoming less sensitive to the Dow and starting to break away from it. They may branch off from it sooner more than later because they are pushing into long term support in many instances and under more normal conditions would be in more follow through rallies by now. If the Dow continues to sell off and several other markets cannot take out their lows, that would be further confirmation of their lows. That is why how different markets interact is very important and a helpful tool in determining what they are trying to tell you.
ABOUT TRADING:
Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be. Trading is not easy. It takes discipline, a plan and the ability to leave your emotions in the other room. My Market Update is designed to help you with that.
You need a plan because, you cannot control the market but you can control yourself. As a client so aptly put it, "when trading you are committing your money to something that you have no control over so you have to do it in a way to keep yourself out of trouble. The only way to do that is to develop/utilize a system to help you trade the markets." Statistics show that the successful trader is wrong well over 50% of the time but still makes money.
Developing a system to approach the markets takes time. The purpose of my Market Update is to show you some of the technical indicators you should consider prior to entering a trade and to show you the trading components all systems need: Entry, Exit, Projection. My goal is to help you save time and trade better.
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OPENING AN ACCOUNT:
Feel free to call or email me regarding any questions you may have about the markets or about trading with me. I'm available during market hours without obligation.
I welcome the opportunity to hear from you and what your experience has been. I can also tell you a little about myself and the firm I work with to see if that would work for you!
SOME POINTERS ON MY MARKET ENTRY & PROTECTIVE STOPS:
I do not enter new positions during the night session but do place stops on existing positions for 24 hour coverage.
I may move stops interday but only existing clients are notified of these changes.
TRADE ALERT:
Buy December mini euro fx. Buy 127.66 stop. Protective stop 125.54. Potential projection 135.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On both long term charts, the FX continues to hold the major 125.00 support area.
2. The weekly chart formed a key reversal bottom from that support level.
3. The weekly chart also formed a buy signal from that same level.
4. The daily chart has a double bottom.
5. On the daily chart, the FX appears to be forming a second wave up.
6. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Long March cotton from 43.70 up to 45.95
METALS COMMENTS:
MAR COPPER: Last time I mentioned that it needed to get over 175.00. So far, that is not in the cards. It keeps drifting lower and is being held down by the 20 day moving average. Just watching. Closed 160.05, down 3.05.
FEB MINI GOLD: Yesterdays' sell-off tested its breakout over 760 on the 21st and it reacted strongly when it reached that level. It rallied and formed a key reversal bottom. Watching closely to buy. Closed 783.30, up 6.50.
MAR MINI SILVER: Stops were reached yesterday at 10.010. It continues to go sideways and consolidate above the 9.000 support. That is constructive. Watching closely to buy. Closed 9.615, up 23.50. Position: Long 10.122 (11.24). Exit 10.010 (12.1). Loss $112.
MISC. MARKETS COMMENTS:JAN MINI CRUDE OIL: I wanted to buy it on a limit order yesterday. During the night it went through my price and was close to my stop price by early morning. Since I do not position at night, I did not position when I came in since it already was close to my suggested stop price. It has been attempting to hold 50.00 and failed to do so today. The new low is 46.96. Just watching. Closed 46.96, down 2.32.
JAN (MINI) NATURAL GAS: It keeps pushing up against 7.000 but cannot get over it. It has been going sideways since the 13th. That tells me it is setting up for a move. Just watching. Closed 6.424, down 2.055.
DEC MINI JAPANESE YEN: Stops at 105.45 were reached yesterday. It rallied to 107.99 today. It continues to struggle to rally even when the Dow sells off. It just has not been able to duplicate the original run up in October even though the Dow has gone lower than it did then. That tells me this market is close to a top. Waiting to sell again. Closed 107.32, up 12.
Position: Short 103.92 (11.22). Exit 105.45 (12.1). Loss $956.25.
DEC DOLLAR INDEX: Stops at 86.30 were reached on Friday. This market is giving every indication of topping as well. The last three days it has not been able to hold above the 20 day moving average. Waiting to sell again. Closed 86.82, down 8.
Position: Short 86.89 (11.24). Exit 86.30 (11.28). Profit $590.
DEC MINI EUROCURRENCY: I attempted to buy it on Friday. It sold off instead. I will try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 126.96, up 28.
DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR: I attempted to buy it on Friday. It sold off instead. It made another low today at 79.43. It has been attempting to hold at the 80.00 support and is starting to have trouble doing that. Just watching for now. Closed 79.74, down 10.MAR BONDS: Switching to March contract. Another new high today at 131.175. Bonds did the same thing in 2002 and this major rally should be an opportunity to short. Just watching. Closed 131.075, up 19.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates - not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
