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Risk Aversion - Flight to Quality Support Dollar.


12/1/2008

Dollar Index (DXZ8):

The DX opened higher at 87.08 and rose to a morning HI of 87.50 as growing concerns over the global economic slump took on a risk averse tone as traders took profit/risk off the table and foreign central banks are prepared to cut rates further this week. With the U.K. announcing weaker manufacturing data and another drop in housing prices to the weakest level in three years, traders are expecting the BoE to announce a rate cut of 100 bp at Thursday's MPC rate meeting to 2.00%. Prices drifted lower towards the close to end the session at 86.905, up 20 tics. The close above the 9-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'positive' w/ firm momentum indicators. The DX may continue higher as traders seek the 'safe-haven' of the DX as equity markets continue lower and foreign central banks cut rates. A hgiher open should find Resistance at 87.43 and 87.96, while an open below 86.96 may find Support at 86.43 and 85.96.  

British Pound (BPZ8):

The BP opened lower at 1.4990 and continued to retrace after weak housing and manufacturing reports led traders to take profit/risk off the table in anticipation that the BoE will lower s/t interest rates by at least 100bp at Thursday's MPC rate meeting. The stronger DX weighed on prices, sending the BP to a morning Lo of 1.4806, before bouncing towards the close and ending the day at 1.4909, down 462 tics. The close below the 9-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'negative' w/ weak momentum indicators. Look for prices to test the Target Lo of 1.4555 on 11/13 as we approach the MPC meeting this Thursday. A lower open may find Support at 1.4677 and 1.4445, while an open above 1.5038 should find Resistance at 1.5270 and 1.5631.

 




 


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About the author


Bob Kozak, Currency Futures Analyst
Alaron, www.TheCommodityConsultant.com

Bob Kozak is the Senior Currency Futures Analyst  at Alaron Trading. He has been involved in the financial markets since 1978, when he was recruited as portfolio strategist for a major Wall Street firm. With a degree in Mathematics from the University of Massachusetts, he was drawn towards technical analysis. He moved into the retail sector as a Certified Financial Planner, assisting clients in structuring an investment portfolio suitable for their particular needs, emphasizing income and risk management. A unique opportunity to mentor under a former Chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade enticed Bob into the commodities arena. Bob eventually managed the office of his mentor, before the firm was purchased and relocated to Chicago.

Bob follows most futures markets using primarily Technical Analysis, and takes advantage of the strong correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and those futures purchased in Dollars. You can request a FREE 2-week trail subscription of 

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by calling Bob at 800-462-4691 or via e-mail at bkozak@alaron.com

Bob has been a frequent contributor to many national publications, including Futures Magazine, Dow Jones Newswire, and Bloomberg FX -TV.

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