Trends in Futures - Commentary for Week 12/01/08 January Crude Oil
My target of “$55 (steep red line) is first resistance” was nearly hit every day. My long term call for $50 in early 2009 was hit (also was near the bottom channel line) and then I looked for an upside correction and got $4.50 this holiday shortened week. Next target is strong resistance at $60, and I would consider a sell there.
On track for my prediction as I have been saying: “Bottom line: I look for rallies now to $55 and $60 and view it as a selling opportunity, with continued declines into early 2009”. I still hold that true and look for $40.
Crude oil seems to be coat tailing the stock market being up 4 days of the 5 day rally in stocks. Double bottom on the monthly chart from January 2007 and November 2008 lows might bounce, but I look for lows at $40 from Dec. 2004 as the next target.
Funds and speculators are in a buying mode, but I say until I see signs of a recovery in the economy, crude should come down by early 2009.
On Friday in the daily numbers service my resistance was $.68 from the actual high and my support was $.98 from the actual low.
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