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Dollar 'Safe-Haven' Faded as Risk Appetite Increases.


11/24/2008

Dollar Index (DXZ8):

The DX opened lower at 87.65 and continued to retrace after Citigroup received guarantees on $306 B of assets and another $20B preferred stock cash injection from the Treasury Department. Traders left the 'safe-haven' of the DX as risk appetite increased, pushing equity markets and commodity prices higher. Prices fell to a mid-day Lo of 86.04, before bouncing towards the close and ending the session at 86.28, down 213 tics. The close below the 9-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'negative' w/ neutral momentum indicators. Traders will key on equity market activity in Japan and Europe to see if traders continue to take on additional 'risk' or take profits. With OPEC meeting on Nov. 29th, possible short-covering in Crude could pressure the DX. A lower open may find Support at 85.57 and 84.86, while an open above 86.74 should find Resistance at 87.45 and 88.62.

Euro Currency (ECZ8):

The EC opened higher at 1.2771, along with most other major foreign currency markets, not including the JY and rose against the weaker DX. Higher equity markets after the Citigroup 'rescue package' was annoucned saw traders leaving the safe-haven of the DX and covering short positions or taking advantage of 'over-sold' conditions. Prices rose throughout the session for most G-10 major markets, sans JY and showed the EC ending the day at 1.2870, up 374 tics. The close above the 9-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'positive' w/neutral momentum indicators. Traders will key on the equity markets to see if there is continued follow-thru or just a knee-jerk reaction to Citigroup. Longs should tighten 'stops' or buy 'puts' to reduce exposure during a short trading week. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.2996 and 1.3122, while an open below 1.2777 may find Support at 1.2651 and 1.2432. 




 


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About the author


Bob Kozak, Currency Futures Analyst
Alaron, www.TheCommodityConsultant.com

Bob Kozak is the Senior Currency Futures Analyst  at Alaron Trading. He has been involved in the financial markets since 1978, when he was recruited as portfolio strategist for a major Wall Street firm. With a degree in Mathematics from the University of Massachusetts, he was drawn towards technical analysis. He moved into the retail sector as a Certified Financial Planner, assisting clients in structuring an investment portfolio suitable for their particular needs, emphasizing income and risk management. A unique opportunity to mentor under a former Chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade enticed Bob into the commodities arena. Bob eventually managed the office of his mentor, before the firm was purchased and relocated to Chicago.

Bob follows most futures markets using primarily Technical Analysis, and takes advantage of the strong correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and those futures purchased in Dollars. You can request a FREE 2-week trail subscription of 

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by calling Bob at 800-462-4691 or via e-mail at bkozak@alaron.com

Bob has been a frequent contributor to many national publications, including Futures Magazine, Dow Jones Newswire, and Bloomberg FX -TV.

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