MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, NOV. 21, 2008)
888-301-8120
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading, give me a call or email. I look forward to hearing from you!
GENERAL COMMENT: The Dow and my reference, the Emini, took out the low of the bear move in 2002 today. This is obviously not good but possibly it is the last "blow off" to the mess we are now in. It's too early to tell. Most likely the latest situation with the auto makers asking for support caused this last drop. The other markets have been following the Dow but lately have become less responsive to it and have been attempting to break away from it. The reaction of the other markets are worth reviewing to help get perspective because the relationships and reactions of all the markets, not just one, can give you an overall picture of where we are and what is really trying to develop. Let's take each resource group:
Grains: The new low in the Dow was not made until the grains closed. In spite of that, the grains sold off a lot today. In all instances they are testing their lows made in October. Only bean oil took out its low. I would be surprised if the grains held once they open up this evening and they may push deeper into their long term support. They are still more responsive to the Dow than most markets.
Meats: They are oblivious to everything and do their own thing. Both markets rallied today.
Softs: They sold off but in most instances are not even near their October lows that occurred when the Dow first collapsed. That suggests to me that they are breaking away from the Dow even though today's drop in the Dow did not occur until after they closed.
Metals: Gold being the leader, it held like a rock. It wants to break away and even though it sold off, the correction was nothing in comparison to what it could do. It closed higher. Gold is telling me that the inflationary results of our bailouts, etc. is what it is starting to focus on. And that is going to be one humdinger as the saying goes!
Currencies: They too are breaking away. See individual comments below at the end of the Update.
Energies: Nothing new here. They have been drifting lower no matter what. They continue to do their own thing.
Bonds: They went nuts. They took out the high established with the last bear market in the Dow in 2003. When they did that, the Dow had bottomed.
All this tells me that we could be at the tail end of this tremendous sell-off. More should be clear in a few days but I know one thing - commodities are not shy. The metals and currencies - the markets most sensitive to the Dow have been reacting differently. Why weren't they following the Dow like they did in October? Based on what it did today they should have all outpaced their reactions made to it in October. They did not. In fact several are doing the opposite of what they did in October. That tells me that factors are attempting to "realign" and, if they can succeed, they are attempting to the bottom or we should have seen the extreme reactions that you saw in October. Time will tell.
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OPENING AN ACCOUNT:
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SOME POINTERS ON MY MARKET ENTRY & PROTECTIVE STOPS:
I do not enter new positions during the night session but do place stops on existing positions for 24 hour coverage.
I may move stops interday but only existing clients are notified of these changes.
TRADE ALERT: NONE FOR FRIDAY.
CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Long December hogs from 54.27 up to 54.80.
Long December cocoa from 19.60 up to 19.80.
METALS COMMENTS:
DEC COPPER: It continues to drift lower with a new low today at 154.65. Just watching. Closed, 157.55, down 2.60.
DEC MINI GOLD: It is giving every suggestion that it is breaking away from the Dow. It has held very well even though the Dow has made new lows. Yesterday it rallied to 763.70 but sold off to close near the low of the day. I did not like that. But today it was right back up and seemed little affected by the Dow. It needs to close over 750.00 to really get going. It has been pushing up against that resistance area all day. Keep stops at 728.50 and let the market work. Closed 748.70, up 12.70.
Position: Long 740.50 (11.14).
Projection: 800.00.
DEC MINI SILVER: It triggered a buy yesterday. Stops were reached this morning. This chart still looks constructive and appears to be building a base. Watching closely. Closed 9.09, down .220.
Position: Long 9.790 (11.19). Exit 9.100 (11.20). Loss $690.
MISC. MARKETS COMMENTS:
DEC CRUDE OIL: Another new low today. Long term it is having trouble holding the 50.00 support. The next main support is 40.00 but it did establish some consolidation between those two levels in late 2004 and early 2005. Just watching. Closed 48.70, down 4.92.
JAN (MINI) NATURAL GAS: Switching to January. It is struggling to find a bottom and is not giving any indication yet. The 6.00 level is long term support. If it cannot hold there the next level is 5.00. Since 2003 that pretty much has been the bottom. It might sell off under that but it has been very short lived. Just watching. 49.42, down 5.43.
DEC JAPANESE YEN: Today it rallied in response to the new drop in the Dow which it did last time. The only difference, even with a lower Dow it could not reach its old high (110.33). That high was reached when the Emini sold off to 840.00. You need to ask, if it can't match that high when the Emini sells off to 745.00, taking out the 2002 bear market low, is the market telling you that the worse is over with if not close. Just watching. Closed 105.61, up 182.
DEC DOLLAR INDEX: It triggered a sell yesterday and was negated the same day. It then formed a key reversal top. Odd. Today the Dow makes a new low and the dollar can't take out that key reversal top when it has been roaring higher as the Dow collapses? Is it suggesting the same as the yen? Just watching. Closed 88.29, up 89.
Position: Long 86.75 (11.19). Exit 87.85 (11.19). Loss $1100.
DEC MINI EUROCURRENCY: It triggered a buy yesterday and was negated the same day. It sold off today but in spite of what the Dow did held considerably well. Just watching. Closed 125.00, down 88.
Position: Long 127.30 (11.19). Exit 125.45 (11.19). Loss $1156.25.
DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR: In an earlier report I pointed out that just looking at the chart, I saw the canadian going lower. That it has and it has almost reached its contract low (76.86) but even it hasn't take that out as the Dow took out the 2002 low. Closed 77.82, down 227.
DEC BONDS: They went nuts today with the drop in the Dow. They rallied to 129.190. That took out the high made in 2003 as the Dow had bottomed and started a new bull move. Is this a "blow-off?" Closed 125.250, up 3.220.
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All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates - not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
