MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, NOV. 21, 2008)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com

Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades.  Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here.  To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website:  www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com.  If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading, give me a call or email.  I look forward to hearing from you! 

GENERAL COMMENT:  The Dow and my reference, the Emini, took out the low of the bear move in 2002 today.  This is obviously not good but possibly it is the last "blow off" to the mess we are now in.  It's too early to tell.  Most likely  the latest situation with the auto makers asking for support caused this last drop.   The other markets have been following the Dow but lately have become less responsive to it and have been attempting to break away from it.  The reaction of the other markets are worth reviewing to help get perspective because the relationships and reactions of all the markets, not just one, can give you the whole picture of where we are and what is really trying to develop.  Let's take each resource group:

Grains:  The new low in the Dow was not made until the grains closed.  In spite of that, the grains sold off a lot today.  In all instances they are testing their lows made in October.  Only bean oil took out its low.  I would be surprised if the grains held once they open up this evening and they may push deeper into their long term support.   They are still more responsive to the Dow than most markets.
Meats:  They are oblivious to everything and do their own thing.  Both markets rallied today.
Softs:  They sold off but in most instances are not even near their October lows that occurred when the Dow first collapsed.   That suggests to me that they are breaking away from the Dow even though today's drop in the Dow did not occur until after they closed. 
Metals:  Gold being the leader, it held like a rock.  It wants to break away and even though it sold off, the correction was nothing in comparison to what it could do.  It closed higher.  Gold is telling me that the inflationary results of our bailouts, etc. is what it is starting to focus on.  And that is going to be one humdinger as the saying goes!
Currencies: They too are breaking away.  See individual comments below at the end of the Update.
Energies:  Nothing new here.  They have been drifting lower no matter what.  They continue to do their own thing.
Bonds:  They went nuts.  They took out the high established with the last bear market in the Dow in 2003.  When they did that, the Dow had bottomed.

All this tells me that the markets could be at the tail end of this tremendous sell-off.   More should be clear in a few days but I know one thing - commodities are not shy.  The metals and currencies - the markets most sensitive to the Dow have been reacting differently.  Why weren't they following the Dow like they did in October?   Based on what it did today they should have all outpaced their reactions made to it in October.  They did not.  In fact several are doing the opposite of what they did in October.   That tells me that factors are attempting to "realign" and, if they can succeed,  they are attempting to a bottom as we should have seen the extreme reactions that you saw in October.  Time will tell. 

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OPENING AN ACCOUNT:

Feel free to call or email me regarding any questions you may have about the markets or about trading with me.  I'm available during market hours without obligation.  

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SOME POINTERS ON MY MARKET ENTRY & PROTECTIVE STOPS:

I do not enter new positions during the night session but do place stops on existing positions for 24 hour coverage.
I may move stops interday but only existing clients are notified of these changes.

TRADE ALERT:  NONE FOR FRIDAY.

CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS: 
Long December hogs from 54.27 up to 54.80.
Long December cocoa from 19.60 up to 19.80.

GRAIN COMMENTS:

DEC CORN:  It now has a double bottom on the daily chart.  The key, of course, will it hold?  If so, that would be very positive.  My concern is that it triggered a sell yesterday from Tuesday's inside day and I would not be surprised if it is headed for 350.  That is what it looks like on the long term chart.  Just watching.  Closed 363 3/4, down 15.

DEC WHEAT:   It almost tested its contract low (496 1/2) today but did not quite make it.  Today's low 500 1/2.   My concern is that it triggered a sell yesterday from Tuesday's inside day.  Prior to today, it had established a first wave up since the contract low was made.  That is no longer the case.  It does have long term support at 500.  If it cannot hold there, the next projection is 450 down to 400.  Closed 511 3/4, down 15 1/4.

JAN MINI BEANS:  Stops were reached today.  They also triggered a sell from yesterday's inside day.  Unlike corn and wheat, they are not as near to their contract low (838 1/2).  Today's low 856 1/2.  But looking at the long term chart, they sure look as though they are headed for 800.  Closed 856, down 41. Position:  Long 912 1/4 (11.17).  Exit 877 1/4 (11.20).  Loss $350.

DEC MEAL:  Stops were reached today.  It also triggered a sell today.  It has a long ways to go to test its contract low (236.90).  Today's low 258.00.  It has been holding the 260.00 support since October 24.  Closing under it today is not good and I suspect it will try for the long term 250 support.  Closed 257.20, down 10.50. 
Position:  Long 270.10 (11.17).  Exit 265.40 (11.20).  Loss $470.

DEC BEAN OIL:  It is the only one in the grain complex that took out its contract low (30.65) that was made on Oct. 24.  Long term it has support at 30.00.  Today's low 30.12.  Just watching.  Closed 30.63, down 1.34.

MEAT COMMENTS:

DEC HOGS:   They finally started to follow through today with their buy signal.  They rallied to 57.37.  The 57.50 level is resistance and if they get over that in our life time, we may see the 60.00 objective.  I hope we live that long.  Move stops from 54.27 up to 54.80.  Closed 56.80, up 87.
Position:  Long 56.12 (11.12).
Projection 60.00.

DEC CATTLE:  Much to my surprise this market formed a key reversal bottom today.  The 85.00 level long term is support and even though they sold off under that, they have rallied back over it.  If they can hold that, we may be looking at a near term bottom.  Closed 85.80, up 1.60.

SOFTS COMMENTS:

MAR COTTON:  It is very close to testing the contract low made on Nov. 12 at 39.23.  Today's low 39.40.  Long term it is in major support - the most extensive portion of it between 40.00 down to 35.00.   This is a level to be buying call options which I have been doing.  Watching closely to buy the futures.  Closed 39.91, down 1.95.

JAN ORANGE JUICE:  Its contract low (75.40) was made on Oct.10.  After going sideways, it dropped like a rock on Monday and came within ten ticks of that low on Tuesday.  It has done nothing since.  Long term it is in support - the low end which is around 70.00.  Just watching.  Closed 76.95, down 45.

MAR  COFFEE:  I attempted to buy it yesterday but it triggered a sell first which was later negated.  That left coffee with a very wide outside day requiring too much risk to attempt to buy it today.  Today it triggered a sell and appears headed for the contract low at 110.10.  Today's low 111.15.  Waiting to buy.  Closed 111.35, down 2.95.

 MAR COCOA:   It rallied to 21.00 yesterday.  That is minor resistance and it sold off from there.  It sold off to 19.91 today.  Move stops from 19.60 up to 19.80.  Closed  20.09, down 54.
Position:  Long 20.25 (11.18). 
Projection:  22.00.

MAR SUGAR:  It triggered a buy yesterday and rallied up to 12.35.  Stops were reached today.  Just looking at the chart, I see more sell-off.   Watching closely.  Closed 11.51, down 22.
Position:  Long 11.81 (11.19).  Exit 11.45 (11.20).  Loss $403.20.
Projection:  13.75.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost.  Not all trades suggested are taken.  Results are based on what the signal indicates - not necessarily an actual trade.  Actual results may vary.