MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WEDNESDAY, NOV. 19, 2008)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com

Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades.  Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here.  To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website:  www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com .  If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading, give me a call or email.  I look forward to hearing from you!  

GENERAL COMMENT:   The majority of the markets are still being dominated by the Dow.  Using the S&P as a reference, every time it sells off under 850.00 it quickly snaps back.   That suggests a potential bottom.  Shorts do not seem comfortable being short at that level.  Many markets had very narrow ranges today and appear to be trading into tighter and tighter bands, so to speak.  That suggests that they are setting up for a strong move.  That could mean that they might be setting up to break away from the Dow.  I notice that when the Dow sells off, they still sell off but are not as responsive as before.  If the Dow rallies, these very oversold markets could rally very aggressively.  Time will tell.

ABOUT TRADING:
Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be. Trading is not easy.  It takes discipline, a plan and the ability to leave your emotions in the other room.  My Market Update is designed to help you with that.

You need a plan because, you cannot control the market but you can control yourself.   As a client so aptly put it, "when trading you are committing your money to something that you have no control over so you have to do it in a way to keep yourself out of trouble.  The only way to do that is to develop/utilize a system to help you trade the markets."   Statistics show that the successful trader is wrong well over 50% of the time but still makes money. 

Developing a system to approach the markets takes time.  The purpose of my Market Update is to show you some of the technical indicators you should consider prior to entering a trade and to show you the trading components all systems need:  Entry, Exit, Projection.   My goal is to help you save time and trade better.    Sign up for my complete Update including Trade Alerts on alternate days by going to my website:  http://www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com/.  It's free as well as several booklets on trading. 

OPENING AN ACCOUNT:

Feel free to call or email me regarding any questions you may have about the markets or about trading with me.  I'm available during market hours without obligation.  

I welcome the opportunity to hear from you and what your experience has been.  I can also tell you a little about myself and the firm I work with to see if that would work for you!

SOME POINTERS ON MY MARKET ENTRY & PROTECTIVE STOPS:
I do not enter new positions during the night session but do place stops on existing positions for 24 hour coverage.
I may move stops interday but only existing clients are notified of these changes.

TRADE ALERT:

Buy December mini silver.  Buy 9.790 stop.  Protective stop 9.100.  Potential projection 11.500.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  The major sell-off that appears to have bottomed last month on the monthly chart, stopped at the high end (9.000) of a support area.
2.  On the monthly chart, that major sell-off exceeded projections suggesting a very oversold market.
3.  The weekly chart has a key reversal bottom and a buy signal.
4.  On the daily chart, silver closed above the downtrend line formed since the July 15, 2008 high for the first time today.  That suggests a trend change from down to up.
5.  On the daily chart the sell-off that bottomed last Thursday appears to be the correction to the first wave up since the low made on Oct. 28.
6.  Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.  

Buy December mini euro fx.  Buy 127.30 stop.  Protective stop 125.45.  Potential projection 132.75. Reasons for the Trade:
1.  On the monthly chart the major sell-off held at the 125.00 support area that goes back to 2004.  It held that support last month and is continuing to do so this month.
2.  The weekly chart has a key reversal bottom from that same level suggesting a trend change from down to up.  Last week it again tested that level and formed another key reversal bottom.
3.  The daily chart has a double bottom.
4.  On the daily chart the fx attempted to test the contract low last week and formed a key reversal bottom.   That is positive.
5.  The daily chart appears to be starting a second wave up since the double bottom.
6.  A buy signal would push the fx over the 20 day moving average.  That would be positive.
7.  Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.  

Sell December dollar index.  Sell 86.75 stop.  Protective stop 87.85.  Potential projection 82.00 support. Reasons for the Trade:
1.  On the monthly, the dollar is in resistance going back to 2004.
2.  On the weekly chart, the dollar has been pushing up against the 88.00 level since the end of October.  With each attempt, it sells off.  It attempted again this week and has been, once again, selling off from that level.  That is resistance.
3.  The daily formed a key reversal last Thursday and has not violated it since.
4.  Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.  

METALS COMMENTS:

 DEC COPPER:  It continues to trade right under 175.00.  It needs to get over it to confirm further that it is attempting to establish a bottom.  Just watching.  Closed 166.20, up 55.

 DEC MINI GOLD:  It triggered a buy on Friday and has not done anything since.  Monday it formed an inside day.  It did so again today.  That tells me one thing - it is setting up for a strong move.  I still see a rally and closing above the 20 day moving average for the last three days is constructive.  Keep stops at 728.50.  Closed 732.70, down 9.30. 
Position:  Long 740.50 (11.14).
Projection:  800.00.

DEC MINI SILVER: A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 9.55, up .220.

ENERGIES, CURRENCIES & BONDS:  

DEC CRUDE OIL:  Another new contract low today at 53.96.  The range was very narrow.  Just watching.  Closed 54.39, down 56.

DEC (MINI) NATURAL GAS:  It held the 6.000 long term support area both Thursday and Friday.  It rallied up to the 20 day moving average today and that stopped it.  It needs to get back over 7.000.  Just watching.  Closed 6.516, down .017.

DEC JAPANESE YEN:  I tried to sell it on Monday.  It triggered a buy instead.  There has not been follow through.  Today was another inside day.  Just watching.  Closed 103.77, up 53.

DEC DOLLAR INDEX:  I have been attempting to sell it.  So far no such luck.  Each day it trades into a tighter "band."  Today was the third day that it formed an inside day.  Whenever a market does that, it is setting up for an aggressive move.

DEC MINI EUROCURRENCY:   I attempted to buy it on Monday.  It sold off instead.  Another attempt today was met with an inside day.  I'll try again tomorrow.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 125.63, down 100.

DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR:  Just looking at the chart, I see this market selling off.  The one problem is its persistance at holding every time it gets near 80.00.  Just watching.  Closed 80.77, down 95.

DEC BONDS:  The short position ended the day on Thursday with approximately a $1000 profit.  It was quickly taken back the very next day and then some.  Bonds have been rallying ever since with a high today at 120.145.  Waiting to sell.  Closed 120.050, up 1.110.
Position:  Short 117.140 (11.13).  Exit 118.24 (11.14).  Loss $1312.50.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The information in this email may be confidential and/or legally privileged.  It is intended solely for the addressee.  Access to this email by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized.  If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender and destroy any copies of this message and any attachments.  Any unauthorized use or dissemination or any action taken or omitted to be taken in reliance on it, is prohibited and may be unlawful.  This communication is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other investment product.

All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost.  Not all trades suggested are taken.  Results are based on what the signal indicates - not necessarily an actual trade.  Actual results may vary.