MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WEDNESDAY, NOV. 19, 2008)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Unique and timely technical review of all the major markets including trade suggestions plus the technical reasons for the trades. Published on Tuesday and Thursday, learn while you trade! Additional trade suggestions for alternate days (titled Trade Alerts) are published but not available here. To receive free the complete Market Update including the additional Trade Alerts, sign up on my website: www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com. If you have any questions or want to discuss a particular market or trading, give me a call or email. I look forward to hearing from you!
GENERAL COMMENT: The majority of the markets are still being dominated by the Dow. Using the S&P as a reference, every time it sells off under 850.00 it quickly snaps back. That suggests a potential bottom. Shorts do not seem comfortable being short at that level. Many markets had very narrow ranges today and appear to be trading into tighter and tighter bands, so to speak. That suggests that they are setting up for a strong move. That could mean that they might be setting up to break away from the Dow. I notice that when the Dow sells off, they still sell off but are not as responsive as before. If the Dow rallies, these very oversold markets could rally very aggressively. Time will tell.
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Developing a system to approach the markets takes time. The purpose of my Market Update is to show you some of the technical indicators you should consider prior to entering a trade and to show you the trading components all systems need: Entry, Exit, Projection. My goal is to help you save time and trade better.
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SOME POINTERS ON MY MARKET ENTRY & PROTECTIVE STOPS:
I do not enter new positions during the night session but do place stops on existing positions for 24 hour coverage.
I may move stops interday but only existing clients are notified of these changes.
TRADE ALERT:
Buy March coffee. Buy 116.20 stop. Protective stop 113.70. Potentail projection 125.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On both the monthly and weekly charts, coffee sold off to and is holding at the 110.00 major long term support.
2. The weekly chart has a key reversal bottom suggesting a trend change from down to up.
3. On the weekly chart, the key reversal bottom held at the 105.00 price level. That is the same price level that held the market in early 2007 prior to a major move up to 170.00.
4. On the daily chart coffee has held at the 115.00 support since early October. It violated it once but rallied back into that support. It violated it again yesterday but rallied back to close right under it. A buy signal would put coffee back over that support.
5. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Buy March sugar. Buy 11.81 stop. Protective stop 11.45. Potential projection 13.75.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has a previous buy signal.
2. On the weekly chart, sugar is holding in the low 11.00 support area. This support goes back to late 2006.
3. On the daily chart, the recent sell-off that appears to have ended yesterday, did so by forming a key reversal bottom. That technically suggests a trend change from down to up.
4. On the daily chart the recent sell-off appears to be the correction to a first wave up since the low formed in late October 2008.
5. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Long December meal from 261.50 up to 265.40.
GRAIN COMMENTS:
DEC CORN: It had a very narrow range today of only 7 1/4 cents. Very unusual. If it rallies over 388 1/4 it will be back over the 20 day moving average and triggering a buy. If it sells off under 378 1/2, it is triggering a sell. Long term it is in support. The daily has been consolidating but failed to hold the first level of consolidation. It is now attempting to do so again at a slightly lower level. I just don't see enough here yet. Closed 380, down 5 3/4.
DEC MINI WHEAT: Stops at 528 1/4 were reached today. It has continued to try to get over 550 for four days. Finally yesterday it backed off and continued to sell off today. If it is basing, it will try for that resistance again from a lower level. Just watching.
Position: Long 551 3/4 (11.12). Exit 528 (11.18). Loss $237.50.
Projection: 600.
JAN MINI BEANS: They triggered a buy on Monday and have traded into a tight band today. The range is very small today - only 20 1/2 cent. It was an inside day. Rallying over 913 tomorrow will trigger a buy. Keep stops at 877 1/4 and let the market work. Closed 902, down 4 1/2.
Position: Long 912 1/4 (11.17).
Projection: 1000.
DEC MEAL: It triggered a buy on Monday and hasn't done a thing. Today it formed an inside day. Move stops from 261.50 up to 265.40. Closed 267.40, down 3.90.
Position: Long 270.10 (11.17).
Projection: 315.00.
DEC BEAN OIL: I attempted to buy it today. It triggered a sell instead. Just watching for now. Closed 32.28, down 4.
MEAT COMMENTS:DEC HOGS: This one is getting boring. It does continue to hold 55.00. Keep stops at 54.27 and let the market work. Closed 55.30, up 15.
Position: Long 56.12 (11.12).
Projection: 60.00.
SOFTS COMMENTS:
MAR COTTON: I attempted to buy it on Monday. It triggered a sell instead. One good thing it is trying to and has been succeeding in holding 40.00 since mid last week that suggests the start of some consolidation. The last time it attempted to consolidate was up at 50.00.
JAN ORANGE JUICE: I attempted to buy it last Friday. It triggered a sell instead an almost tested the contract low at 75.40. Today's low 75.50. Just watching. Closed 77.25, down 2.50.
MAR COFFEE: I tried to buy it on Monday. It triggered a sell instead. It formed another inside day today. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 114.60, own 55.
MAR COCOA: (Please note I said Dec. cocoa in my Trade Alert last nite. That was a typo. It is obviously March). It triggered a buy today. Today's high 20.56. Keep stops at 19.60. Closed 20.46, up 70.
Position: Long 20.25 (11.18).
Projection: 22.30.
MAR SUGAR: A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 11.61, down 13.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates - not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
