Trends in Futures - Commentary for Week 11/17 December Crude Oil
The fact that they got to within $.06 of my resistance on Monday and made new contract lows was negative. Breakdown to another new low for the run continues the bearish chart. $63.50 (blue line) will be resistance this week, with $60 (steep red line) being first resistance. My long term call for $50 in early 2009 is still valid, but looks more likely to get there sooner.
Discretionary driving even at $2 a gallon is reflective of the current demand, indicating that consumers are worried about spending unnecessary money at this time.
Barron’s last week ran an article saying that Ivy League universities endowments invested up to 70% in alternative assets. Most lost 30 to 50% in value since the commodities peak this year. The prior 10 years saw yearly gains of 12 to 16%. Investments peaked at 200 billion and now around 150 billion. Less than 10 years ago it was around 25 billion. Bottom line: I look for rallies and view them as selling opportunities, with continued declines into early 2009.
On Friday in the daily numbers service resistance was $.30 from the actual high and my support was $1.02 from the actual low.
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