MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, NOV. 14, 2008)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
GENERAL COMMENT: Today was a very important day because, as I have pointed out before, all the markets have been following the Dow. A new low was made today in the Dow and in spite of that and in spite of the fact that most markets sold off, they did not take out their lows when the Dow did. They held and rallied aggressively when the Dow finally did. Such action tells me that you most likely have now seen the lows in most markets.
What they have been doing since the first rally has been to test their contract lows. I have pointed that out in previous Updates as part of the process of bottom forming. That is very common and since you never know to what extent they will test it, you do need to pay attention to buy suggestions from the markets. Unfortunately several previous buys were stopped out as the markets failed to hold those early attempts. As you know, that is part of the business of trading and testing the market is key to trading.
For some time I have pointed out that most markets were in long term support - a key reason to be approaching the long side. Confirming their lows today but not taking them out when the Dow did, is further support to test the long side. With that in mind some good buying opportunities should be developing again.
ABOUT TRADING:
Emotion is more your eney than any market will ever be. Trading is not easy. It takes discipline, a plan and the ability to leave your emotions in the other room. The purpose of my Market Update is to help you with that.
You need a plan because, you cannot control the market but you can control yourself. As a client so aptly put it, "when trading you are committing your money to something that you have no control over so you have to do it in a way to keep yourself out of trouble. The only way to do that is to develop/utilize a system to help you trade the markets. Statistics show that the successful trader is wrong well over 50% of the time but still makes money.
Developing a system to approach the markets takes time. The purpose of my Market Update is to show you some of the technical indicators you should consider prior to entering a trade and to show you the trading components all systems need: Entry, Exit, Projection. My goal is to help you save time and trade better. Sign up for my complete Update including Trade Alerts on alternate days by going to my website: http://www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com/. It's free as well as several booklets on trading.
A POINTER ABOUT MY MARKET ENTRY & PROTECTIVE STOPS:
I do not enter new positions during the night session but do place stops on existing positions for 24 hour coverage.
I may move stops interday but only existing clients are notified of these changes.
OPENING AN ACCOUNT:
Feel free to call or email me regarding any questions you may have about the markets or about trading with me. I'm available during market hours without obligation.
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TRADE ALERT:
Buy December mini gold. Buy 740.50 stop. Protective stop 698.00 stop. Potential projection 800.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On both the monthly and weekly charts the recent major sell-off stopped in support going back to 2006-07 between 650 and 700.
2. On both the weekly and daily charts the current wave down has met projections.
3. The sell-off on the daily chart that bottomed on Oct. 24 ended with a key reversal bottom suggesting a trend change from down to up.
4. The recent sell-off appears to be the correction to a first wave up since the Oct. 24 low.
5. The market appears to be starting a second wave up.
Sell December dollar index. Sell 86.42 stop. Protective stop 88.30. Potential projection 82.00 support. Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly, the dollar is in resistance going back to 2004.
2. Both the monthly and the weekly are forming a preliminary key reversal top with continued sell-off.
3. The daily formed a key reversal top today.
4. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
METALS COMMENTS:
DEC COPPER: It sold off under major support but did not follow through and started to rally today. It needs to get over 175.00. Closed 162.40, down 31.5.
DEC MINI GOLD: Stops were reached yesteday. It continued to sell off today and reached 700.00 support. It also formed a key reversal bottom. I would buy again. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 705.00, down 13.30.
Position: Long 742.40 (11.4). Exit 724.00 (11.12). Loss $610.88.
DEC SILVER: After hanging around the high end of its range as of my last Update, it sold off and tested the 9.000 support again today. It immediately rallied from that level. Watching closely to buy. Closed 8.80, down 68.
MISC. MARKETS COMMENTS:
DEC CRUDE OIL: A key reversal bottom in this market today when it sold off to 54.20. Last time I mentioned that this market was very overdone on the downside. It is so overdue for a rally. The problem is that even using the mini you need to risk too much. I see a rally. Closed 58.24, up 2.08.
DEC (MINI) NATURAL GAS: It made a new low today at 6.085. The previous low was 6.235 made on Oct. 27. It needs to get back over 7.000 to be of any interest. Just watching. Closed 6.318, down .087.
DEC JAPANESE YEN: Last time I suggested that it looked like it wanted to rally. It did to the 106.00 level yesterday and gave it all back today when it sold off to 101.80. Just watching. Closed 103.76, down 96.
DEC DOLLAR INDEX: It is giving every indication of setting up for a sell-off. It is in resistance long term and formed a key reversal top and outside day on the daily. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 87.40, down 65.
DEC EUROCURRENCY: A huge outside day today but it still held its contract low today. Watching closely to buy. Closed 126.75, up 186.
DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR: It looked like it was starting a new wave down but it stopped the sell-off at 80.00 support. Just watching. Closed 81.50, up 70.
DEC BONDS: They triggered a sell today with good follow through. The low as 116.135. Keep stops at 118.24. Closed 117.005, down 1.02.
Position: Short 117.140 (11.13).
Projection: 114.27.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates - not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
