GFT Daily Market Commentary

An early rally in the US indices and ongoing profit taking in FX triggered another massive slide on the dollar against the European and the commodity currencies, and a dollar/yen rally.  Once the Fed met the market expectations and cut rates by 50 bps to 1%, stocks fell.  The pattern seen during the past two days is in its final stages, so today the market should be even choppier than usual.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar rallied further after forming a bullish reversal a day earlier and my model remains long. The 20-day moving average held the upside, and only a clear break above it would turn the outlook positive. Until then, the medium-term bias remains bearish. 
 
Above 1.3200, resistance is now seen at 1.3260. Distant resistance is at 1.3570 would signal a sustained recovery of euro/dollar.

Immediate support is at 1.3060. The next level is 1.2907. Below 1.2695, distant support is now at 1.2335.  
 
Oscillators are bullish.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish 
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen rallied to a one-week high early Tuesday but then reversed gains, as the 20-day moving average held.  My model remains long, but the medium-term outlook remains bearish.  I wouldn’t be too long here.
 
Immediate resistance is at 98.45. The next level is 99.70. Above 100.50, resistance is now seen at 103.05.

Initial support remains at 96.75.  The next level is 95.70.  Below 94.40 there is Friday’s low of 90.94. 

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed 
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar surged further on Wednesday and my model remains long.  The upside is limited, as the medium-term outlook remains bearish. 
 
Initial resistance is at 1.6635. The next level is 1.6760. Distant resistance looms at 1.6940.

Immediate support is at 1.6365. The next level is at 1.6090. Below 1.5735, distant support is at 1.5270 from a pivot low.
 
Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss caught up with the other the European currencies and collapsed on Wednesday. In the short term the downside is favored, but the medium-term risk remains on the upside.
 
Immediate support is at 1.1260.  The next level is 1.1180. Distant support comes at 1.1055. 

Initial resistance is at 1.1400. Above 1.1500, the next level is 1.1767. This is followed by the area between 1.1867 and 1.1873. 
 
Oscillators are mixed.

 NEAR-TERM: Mixed 
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish