GFT Daily Market Commentary

Once again, the dollar rallied further on Thursday versus the European currencies and the Canadian dollar while falling sharply against the yen. The moves are even more overdone, but hold on to them until you have proof of a pause. 
 

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar fell to a new low for the strong downtrend on speculation the global credit crisis is spreading through the Eurozone. My model remains short. A late attempt to recover was reversed in the Far East. The medium-term outlook remains bearish
 
Immediate support remains at 1.2705. Below 1.2580, support is now seen at 1.2505.

Initial resistance is at 1.2830. This is followed by 1.2980. Distant resistance looms at 1.3060. 
 
Oscillators are bearish.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen sank further to a seven-month low on Thursday and reached the target of a head and shoulders. My model remains short.  The medium-term outlook remains bearish. 
 
Below 95.95, support now comes at 95.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 95.00 and 96.00. Next support is at 94.72.

Resistance moved further down to 97.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 96.80 and 97.80. This is followed by 98.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 97.75 and 98.75. 

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar plunged further to a new five-year low and my model remains short.  The downside is still favored, as the medium-term outlook remains bearish. 
 
Below 1.6038, support is now seen at 1.5815. Distant support is at 1.5630.

Initial resistance is at 1.6230. The next resistance follows at 1.6287. Distant resistance is now pegged at 1.6470.
 
Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss surged to a new high for the uptrend and my model remains long.  The medium-term risk remains on the upside.
 
Initial resistance is at 1.1755. The next level is at 1.1873. 
 
Immediate support is still seen at 1.1595.  The next level is 1.1410. Distant support comes at 1.1205. 
 
Oscillators are rising.

 
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish 
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish