MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, OCT. 3, 2008)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com

GENERAL COMMENT:   The markets continue to follow through with their long term trends.  The majority of the markets are in or changing into bear markets which I have pointed out before.  The longer term charts were suggesting this some time ago and the bear moves in most instances are not done yet.  This is normal after the huge bull moves we had.  But it will not be easy.  There are support areas all along the way that will produce rallies.  It has been my experience in past bear markets, you just can't get married to the rallies - so to speak.   Overall the markets are telling us that we are in a recession and that recession is not done yet.  They are acting just like they have in past recessions.  And that, too, will end at some point.

ABOUT TRADING:

A client of mine, Larry, made the following comment:  "When trading you are committing your money to something that you have no control over so you have to do it in a way to keep yourself out of trouble.  You need a system to help you in volatile markets."   No truer words were spoken.  Statistics show that the successful trader is wrong well over 50% of the time but still makes money because he uses a system. 

Developing a system takes time.  The purpose of my Market Update is not only to give market guidance but also to show you what the basic components to any system should have prior to placing a trade: an Entry, an Exit, and a Projection.  The goal of the Update is to point you in the right direction, save you time and, hopefully, improve your trading skills.  

SOME IMPORTANT THINGS TO KNOW:

    1.  "Trade Alerts" are good for the next day only.
    2.    I do not enter markets during the night session.    
    3.    I always have stops in during the night session.       
    4.    I will move stops during the day and only existing clients are notified of these changes at that time.     5.    You are welcome to contact me at any time (whether you're a client or not) to discuss a market or anything in question in the Updates. Either email or phone is fine.  I personally answer all inquiries.   

OPENING AN ACCOUNT: 

Please feel free to contact me regarding opening an account.  You will work with me personally.  I'm affiliated with Zaner Group, an Introducing Broker, which enables us to clear more than one clearing firm so we can fit the trader to the firm best suited for them.   Looking forward to hearing from you! 

TRADE ALERT:  NONE FOR TOMORROW.

CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Short December corn from 501 1/2 down to 489 3/4.
Short March sugar from 14.47 down to 13.90.
Short December mini gold from 899.10 down to 868.70.

GRAIN COMMENTS:

DEC CORN: In my last report I saw more sell-off.  That it has been doing.   It triggered a sell today on the opening at 478 3/4 and went down limit.  The long term target at 380 still appears intact.  On the daily chart for December corn the next support is 420 which could cause a bounce.  Move stops from 501 1/2 to 489 3/4.  Closed 454, down 30.
Position:  Short 478 3/4 (10.2).
Projection: 440.

DEC WHEAT:  The minor long term support at 650 that I mentioned in my last Update wheat went through today.  The next support level on the daily chart in December wheat is 600.  It may bounce off of that but the longer term projections down to 500 still appear to be a potential target on the longterm charts.  Closed 636, down 33 3/4.

NOV BEANS:  They sold off today as well with a new low at 994.  The monthly chart is triggering a preliminary sell this month.  Long term their next support is 900.  The next support in November beans on the daily chart is 980.  Closed 1004, down 49.

DEC MEAL: Long term it has support at 250.  On the daily chart, December meal runs into support at 260.   The 260 level corresponds with the current wave down as well.  Closed 274.50, down 11.70.

DEC BEAN OIL:  I was short and was stopped out with a profit yesterday.  It has continued to sell off with a low today at 42.66.  Long term the first support is at 38.00 and that is minor.  On the December daily chart it will run into minor support between 42.00 - 41.50.  This wave down has projections to 38.00.  Closed 43.18, down 1.50.
Position:  Short 47.65 (9.25).  Exit 45.41 (10.1).  Profit $1344.

 MEAT COMMENTS:

DEC HOGS:   I have been bearish the meats for sometime and wishing the hogs would rally to set up an opportunity to short.  They did not.  The consolidation I mentioned last time that was "setting up" for a move, established a down move.   Their low today 60.15.   Long term they triggered a sell last month on the monthly chart.  This month they violated the 20 day moving average.  Long term there is minor support at 65.00 (basis the October contract) with much better support down at 60.00.  I see the 60.00 as a first target.  They should establish a good trend because they have a consolidation phase above them on the daily chart between 72.00 up to 79.00 that they were stuck in from January through the end of August.  You don't have a consolidation like that without a huge move to follow.  Closed 51.40, down 1.57.

DEC CATTLE:  Last time I mentioned that the buy signal on the monthly chart was negated.  Previously I was questioning its validity because it was at historic highs.  When it was negated, the monthly formed an outside month.  That is now triggering a preliminary sell on the monthly.  The key is for them to get under 94.00 support on the monthly.  I suspect they will since all the charts are now suggesting further sell-off.  That will also take them under the 20 day moving average.  In the meantime, the daily chart in the cattle has been selling off and for some time and triggered another sell today from yesterday's outside day.   They sold off 2.40 points.  Closed 98.07, down 2.40.

SOFTS COMMENTS:

DEC COTTON:   It formed an outside day today.  The last time it did this after making a new low, it rallied to set up for another sell-off.  Both longer term charts are still negative even though it did reach some support long term.  Just watching.  Closed 58.44, up 64.

NOV ORANGE JUICE:  The low mentioned in my last Update at 85.10 that held the market in 2005 was violated this month.  The new low is 78.30 and the longer term projection is 70.00.  Closed 81.40, down 5.35.

DEC  COFFEE:  Last time I suggested that there should be more to the downtrend long term.  Today it violated the 20 day moving average on the monthly chart.   It also triggered a sell today from yesterday's outside day and sold off to 124.80.  On the daily chart the December contract has some support at 123.00 but the projection for the current wave down points to 120.00.   Keep stops at 131.95 for now.  Closed 125.45, down 4.10.
Position:  Short 128.30 (10.2).
Projection:  120.00.

DEC COCOA:  It has been in a downtrend and today reconfirmed that.  The consolidation I mentioned last time near the previous low it did take out today.  It tried to hold 25.00 support but sold off to 24.25 today.  This wave down has projections to 23.00.  That also is suggested by the weekly and monthly charts.  Closed 24.51, down 78.

MAR SUGAR:  It finally started to sell off today and made a low at 13.00.  This has been a very choppy market.  Move stops from 14.47 down to 13.90.  Closed 13.08, down 74.
Position:  Short 13.65 (9.30).
Projection:  12.00.

METALS COMMENTS:

 DEC COPPER:  In my last report the potential projection for the current wave down was 274.75.  That was an understatement.  The low today was 260.30.   Longer term projections are down to 240.  Closed 262.75, down 16.20.

 DEC MINI GOLD:  It triggered a sell this morning and sold off to 833.50.  It also violated the 20 day moving average on the daily chart.  Move stops from 899.10 down to 868.70.   Closed 844.30, down 43.00. Position:  Short 868.70 (10.2).
Projection:  820.00.

 DEC SILVER:  An inside day yesterday triggered a sell today when it sold off under 12.045.  Today's low 10.855.  Silver is now nearing its contract lows at 10.310.  Gold isn't even near it.   Just watching.  Closed 11.120, down 1.650.

MISC. MARKETS COMMENTS:

NOV CRUDE OIL:  Last time it was forming a key reversal bottom to a recent sell-off that did not reach the contract low at 90.42.  It was too early to tell if that key reversal bottom was going to follow through and produce a rally.   It did not.  It rallied up to the 20 day moving average two days in a row and could not get over it. It sold off today and is about to take out that key reversal bottom made on Sept. 30.  Just looking at the chart I see another wave down.  The key is the 90.42 low.  Closed 93.97, down 4.56.

NOV (MINI) NATURAL GAS:  I tried to buy it today.  The price was never reached.  Instead it started to sell off again.  As of now it looks like the rally was a test of that breakout to the downside and that it will now continue to sell off.  The low is 7.135.  That is the key now.  Watching closely.  Closed 7.481, down .268.

DEC MINI JAPANESE YEN:  I went long on Wednesday at 95.61 and since then it has fallen asleep.  Very quiet according to currency standards.   Keep stops at 94.19 and let the market work.  Closed 95.78, up 47.
Position:  Long 95.91 (10.1).
Projection:  98.50.

DEC DOLLAR INDEX:  I took profit last Tuesday and it has continued to rally.  It made a new high today at 81.01.  Just watching for now.  Closed 80.64, up 1.18.

DEC EUROCURRENCY:   It took out the previous low (138.13) today.  The new low is 137.55.  Very annoying to have missed trying to short it last week.  Wait for another day.  Long term it has some support at 137.00.  Just watching.  Closed 138.33, down 251.

DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR:  Stops were reached with a profit yesterday.  It continued to sell off with a low today at 92.62.  It is in some support.  Just watching.  Closed 92.75, down 159.
Position:  Short 96.47 (9.29).  Exit 94.85 (10.1).  Profit $1620.

DEC BONDS:  I keep trying to sell them but the price is never reached.  They rallied again today.  Just watching.  Closed 119.125, up 1.115.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost.  Not all trades suggested are taken.  Results are based on what the signal indicates - not necessarily an actual trade.  Actual results may vary.