MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, SEPT. 26, 2008)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
ABOUT TRADING:
A client of mine, Larry, made the following comment: "When trading you are committing your money to something that you have no control over so you have to do it in a way to keep yourself out of trouble. You need a system to help you in volatile markets." No truer words were spoken. Statistics show that the successful trader is wrong well over 50% of the time but still makes money because he uses a system.
Developing a system takes time. The purpose of my Market Update is not only to give market guidance but also to show you what the basic components to any system should have prior to placing a trade: an Entry, an Exit, and a Projection. The goal of the Update is to point you in the right direction, save you time and, hopefully, improve your trading skills.
SOME IMPORTANT THINGS TO KNOW:
1. "Trade Alerts" are good for the next day only.
2. I do not enter markets during the night session.
3. I always have stops in during the night session.
4. I will move stops during the day and only existing clients are notified of these changes at that time. 5. You are welcome to contact me at any time (whether you're a client or not) to discuss a market or anything in question in the Updates. Either email or phone is fine. I personally answer all inquiries.
OPENING AN ACCOUNT:
Please feel free to contact me regarding opening an account. You will work with me personally. I'm affiliated with Zaner Group, an Introducing Broker, which enables us to clear more than one clearing firm so we can fit the trader to the firm best suited for them. Looking forward to hearing from you!
TRADE ALERT:
Sell December mini euroFX. Sell 145.59 stop. Protective stop 147.68. Potential projection 140.00. Reasons for the Trade: 1. Both the monthly and weekly charts have a double top indicating a major trend change from up to down. This formation has been following through. 2. On the weekly chart, the euro rallied up to the 148.00 major resistance area formed in late 2007 and early 2008. That stopped the rally. 3. On the daily chart the euro rallied up the the 148.00 resistance area and attempts to get over it have continued to fail. 4. The recent rally was a 50% retracement of the recent major sell-off that bottomed at 138.00. 5. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Short December bean oil from 50.52 down to 49.27.
Short December mini gold from 915.70 down to 909.10.
Long December dollar index from 76.200 up to 76.380.
GRAIN COMMENTS:
DEC CORN: It triggered a buy yesterday and has done nothing. It formed an inside day today. Both yesterday and today's low held at the 20 day moving average. This market is struggling. Just watching. Closed 558 1/4, down 4 3/4.
DEC WHEAT: It triggered a buy right on the opening on Wed. The stop was reached the same day. It formed an outside day and triggered a sell today! It continues to be held back by the 20 day moving average and by recent action, I would say is a confused market. Just watching. Closed 736 1/4, up 6.
Position: Long 757 1/2 (9.23). Exit 725 1/4 (9.23). Loss $1612.50.
NOV BEANS: They have been pushing up against their 20 day moving average for four days. They triggered a sell today from yesterday's inside day. They consolidated in this same range between early Sept. to mid Sept. before they sold off to 1099 1/2. If they sell off from here, they should test that level at least. Just watching. Closed 1183, down 4.
DEC MEAL: It pushed up against the 20 day moving average yesterday and today. It then sold off. Nothing has really changed here between Tuesday and today. Just watching. Closed 328.50, down 4.0.
DEC BEAN OIL: I attempted to short bean oil yesterday. The price was reached today right after the opening. It immediately rallied but did finally start to sell off. It formed an outside day today. Move the stop from 50.52 down to 49.27. Closed 48.29, up 9.
Position: Short 47.65 (9.25).
Projection: 41.00.
MEAT COMMENTS:
DEC HOGS: The recent buy signal continues to erode. Today was an inside day. If the market trades under 66.05, it will be triggering a sell and negating that buy. For months on the daily chart hogs built a huge top between roughly 72.50 up to 78.00 before they collapsed out of it in late August. They have been thrashing around in the same support area formed last December before hogs rallied and formed that huge top just mentioned. That is why I do not want to short them down here. They have never had a rally to test the breakout of that top formation. Normally markets do so. Just watching. Closed 66.12, down 10.
OCT CATTLE: The outside day mentioned in Tuesday's report was followed by an inside day yesterday. That triggered a sell today when 101.80 was traded under. Today's low 100.87. Cattle on the daily chart are in support formed earlier this year. The current wave down has also met projections. So is this sell-off to test the low of this second major wave down - prior to a rally? If so, we could be looking at a near term bottom somewhere in here and be setting up for that rally. After the first wave down, cattle rallied $5.00. I have yet to see a comparable rally since this second wave down met projections. They don't have to match that rally but there should be something more than what they have done so far. Closed 100.95, down 1.22.SOFTS COMMENTS:
DEC COTTON: It has been in a downtrend for some time and nothing has changed that. It has been trying to hold the 60.00 support. Today was an inside day and possibly it will form a rally from this level. If so, it should be a rally to sell. Just watching. Closed 61.66, up 5.
NOV ORANGE JUICE: I attempted to buy it yesterday. The price was never reached. I elected not to do so today because the daily chart just did not look that good after yesterday's nil performance. Just watching. Closed 91.30, down 2.10.
DEC COFFEE: I attempted to sell it again yesterday. The price was not reached. It was reached today and it then rallied immediately and the stop was reached with a bad fill. I watched it go from the 136 range up to 138 almost instanteously. It then formed an outside day. Just watching. Closed 137.60, up 1.55.
Position: Short 133.90 (9.25). Exit 137.50 (9.25). Loss $1350.
DEC COCOA: I suggested more rally last time and it has rallied up to 27.94. The gap up at 28.50 has not yet been filled. It is too early to tell if this is it for the rally. Just watching. Closed 27.40, down 25.
MAR SUGAR: I attempted to sell it yesterday. The price was never reached as it formed an inside day. That formation triggered a buy today with a high at 14.58. Just watching for now. Closed 14.55, up 40.
METALS COMMENTS:DEC COPPER: In my last Update I suggested that the rally to 330.00 was the setup for another wave down. So far that has been the case but it is too early to assume that for two reasons. It is in longer term support on the daily chart that was formed late last year. Secondly, the current low (300.00) needs to be taken out to confirm the start of another wave down. That has not happened. Just watching. Closed 313.45, up 2.80.
DEC MINI GOLD: My sell stop was not reached yesterday. It was today and gold sold off to 868.80. The recent major rally pushed gold back up into the huge consolidation that it broke out of to the downside in early August forming, at that time, a second major wave down since the high earlier this year. So far this recent rally is technically a test of that breakout to the downside - which is normal. If so, it should fail to hold up here. Right now it is hanging on the edge of the low side of that consolidation. It is the extensive consolidation above this market that is weighing on the market and has stopped the advance and should push gold lower. Move stops from 915.70 down to 909.10 and pray! Closed 882.00, down 15.00. Position: Short 883.90 (9.25). Projection: 840.00.
DEC SILVER: The key reversal top I mentioned last time was negated and silver made a minor new high today at 13.880 and then formed another key reversal top. I see nothing to do. Closed 13.275, down .165.
NOV CRUDE OIL: It triggered a sell today from yesterday's inside day but has been rallying since. It has minor resistance at 110.00 but more extensive resistance at 112.00 for a potential sell. Just watching. Closed 108.02, up 2.29.
NOV (MINI) NATURAL GAS: It continues to trade back and forth today consolidating. It rallied back over 8.000 today and closed back over the 20 day moving average. Keep stops at 7.650. Closed 7.931, up 4.20.
Position: 8.075 (9.23).
Projection: 9.20.
DEC JAPANESE YEN: I was trying to buy it but it continued to sell off. It reached support at approximately 94.00 today and stopped selling off at the 20 day moving average. It then rallied. Just watching. Closed 94.73, down 51.
DEC DOLLAR INDEX: It triggered a buy yesterday. So far the high is 77.405 made today. It was also an outside day. Move stops from 76.200 up to 76.38. Closed 77.110, up .23.
Position: Long 77.21 (9.25).
Projection: 80.00.
DEC MINI EUROCURRENCY: I was trying to sell it but it triggered a buy first. It then sold off forming an outside day. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 146.21, down 34.
DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR: As you know from previous reports, the canadian has a very extensive top formation above the market. The recent rally plowed into that but has been stopped by it for the fourth day in a row. It did trigger a buy today from yesterday's inside day but isn't going anywhere so far. Just watching. Closed 96.87, up 17.DEC BONDS: They triggered a buy yesterday from Tuesday's inside day. That was negated today. I see nothing to do here. Closed 116.24.5, down 19.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates - not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
