MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, AUGUST 29, 2008)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
PLEASE NOTE: I will not be in the office on Friday. Also, all the markets will be closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday.
ABOUT TRADING:
A client of mine, Larry, made the following comment: "When trading you are committing your money to something that you have no control over so you have to do it in a way to keep yourself out of trouble. You need a system to help you in volatile markets." No truer words were spoken. Statistics show that the successful trader is wrong well over 50% of the time but still makes money because he uses a system.
Developing a system takes time. The purpose of my Market Update is not only to give market guidance but also to show you what the basic components to any system should have prior to placing a trade: an Entry, an Exit, and a Projection. The goal of the Update is to point you in the right direction, save you time and, hopefully, improve your trading skills.
SOME IMPORTANT THINGS TO KNOW:
1. "Trade Alerts" are good for the next day only.
2. I do not enter markets during the night session.
3. I always have stops in during the night session.
4. I will move stops during the day and only existing clients are notified of these changes at that time. 5. You are welcome to contact me at any time (whether you're a client or not) to discuss a market or anything in question in the Updates. Either email or phone is fine. I personally answer all inquiries.
OPENING AN ACCOUNT:
Please feel free to contact me regarding opening an account. You will work with me personally. I'm affiliated with Zaner Group, an Introducing Broker, which enables us to clear more than one clearing firm so we can fit the trader to the firm best suited for them. Looking forward to hearing from you!
TRADE ALERT:
Sell December meal. Sell 354.20 stop. Protective stop 367.50. Potential projection 335.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has a key reversal top.
2. On the monthly chart, meal rallied to the 380 resistance and has started to sell off.
3. On the weekly chart, meal rallied to the 370 resistance (where the 20 day moving average intersects) and stopped.
4. The daily chart is in a near term downtrend. It has had two waves down. The recent rally could be the set up for a third wave down.
5. A sell signal would push meal under the current 355.00 support.
6. A sell signal would negate the current buy signal.
Sell December cotton. Sell 68.20 stop. Protective stop 70.97. Potential projection 64.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has a key reversal top.
2. The weekly chart is in a near term downtrend.
3. On the weekly chart, cotton sold off under the 20 day moving average five weeks ago. It rallied up to it again this week and then sold off.
4. On the weekly chart, cotton violated the uptrend formed since the April 07 low several weeks ago. Attempts to rally back over it have failed.
5. On the daily chart, cotton has been in a downtrend.
6. On the daily chart, attempts to rally back over the 20 day moving average since August 1 have failed. It attempted to yesterday but could not sustain it today.
7. A sell signal would negate the buy signal and push cotton under the 69.00 support.
Sell December cocoa. Sell 28.39 stop. Protective stop 29.78. Potential projection 25.50.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart formed a key reversal top last month with continued follow through this month.
2. The weekly chart has a key reversal top that has had continued follow through for weeks.
3. On the weekly chart, cocoa tried to get back over the 29.00 resistance this week and is failing.
4. The daily chart is in a downtrend. It has had three waves down. The recent rally appears to be the set up for a fourth wave down.
5. A sell signal would push cocoa under the 28.50 support.
Sell October sugar. Sell 13.14 stop. Protective stop 13.90. Potential projection 12.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, sugare attempted again to get over the 14.00 resistance and failed.
2. On the monthly chart, sugar formed another key reversal top this month. It did so early this year in the same area and sold off over 5.50 points.
3. The weekly chart continues to fail at 14.50 resistance and did so again this week.
4. The weekly chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
5. On the daily chart sugar rallied to the 14.40 resistance this week and formed a key reversal top and outside day.
6. On the daily chart sugar triggered a sell today.
7. A sell signal would push sugar under the 13.20 support.
GRAIN COMMENTS:
DEC CORN: It triggered a second sell yesterday but is on some minor support and, so far, is holding. That support is at 580. Just watching. Closed 587 3/4, down 8 1/4.
DEC WHEAT: I have been waiting to buy. It has been in a "free fall" and finally reached the 800 support area today. That is good support going back to last December. If that support doesn't hold the next support is 780. That has formed the market bottom twice before. Waiting to buy. Closed 811, down 14 3/4.
NOV BEANS: Last time I went into detail regarding what beans are attempting to do long term. I pointed out that the rally should set up for a sell at some point. On Monday they had triggered a buy but that was negated on Tuesday. So much for that. Since Friday they have been stuck in a range between roughly 1310 and 1370. The resistance right above that high area is what is stopping the rally attempts. Right now I see nothing to do since the market doesn't seem to know what it wants to do! Closed 1324, down 24.
DEC MEAL: It triggered a buy on Monday - just as beans did - but that buy has not been negated. It is stuck in a range that was formed in late July between roughly 355 and 375-380. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 358.80, down 6.20.
DEC BEAN OIL: The sell signal mentioned last time has continued to follow through. Bean oil is, once again, under the 20 day moving average. It attempted to get over it last week but it could not hold. Since the sell signal it has gotten near the 53.00 support and held. Just watching for now. Closed 54.08, down 85.
MEAT COMMENTS:
DEC HOGS: I took profit yesterday as they met my projection. Of course, then they went down limit! They gapped down today and reached former support in the 68.00 area. In early August the last major sell-off stopped there, fooled around for a few days and then rallied. Just watching for now. Closed 68.52, down 1.97.
Position: Short 73.62 (8.25). Exit 71.60 (8.27). Profit $808.
SOFTS COMMENTS:
DEC COTTON: I attempted to sell it yesterday. It triggered a buy instead, rallied to 71.00 resistance and has been selling off. I will try again tomorrow to sell. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 69.36, down 1.20.
NOV ORANGE JUICE: For two days it has been trying to hold at the 112.00 support area. Yesterday was an inside day. Today was an outside day. Whenever a market starts to form those formations back to back, it is "setting up" for a move. Even though it has been in a downtrend long term, that scenario is starting to change. The weekly chart is back over 105.00 support and the monthly chart is trying to form a key reversal bottom. It has one day left to do so. Just watching. Closed 111.40, up 60.
DEC COFFEE: After rallying over the 148.00 resistance, it followed through to 152.00 and then sold off today. It is now back under the 148.00 resistance. There should have been better follow through to the upside. Just watching for now but I lean towards selling. Watching closely. Closed 147.80, down 50.
DEC COCOA: In my last report I mentioned that the current rally could be the set up for a fourth wave down. So far, that is what it is suggesting. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 28.60, down 108.
OCT SUGAR: It is finally forming some potential direction. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 13.23, down 41.
METALS COMMENTS:DEC COPPER: Switching to December contract. It triggered a sell today - the second one in over a week. It appears to be starting a new wave down. If that be the case, the previous low at 321.00 should be taken out. Closed 340.05, down 4.45.
DEC (Mini) GOLD: It triggered a buy yesterday at 837.10. Keep stops at 811 for now and let the market work. Closed 837.20, up 3.20.
Position: Long 837.10 (8.27).
Projection: 880.00.
DEC SILVER: Switching to December. It triggered a buy yesterday, like the gold, but as pointed out the risk required to trade it was too great. Right now it needs to get over 14.000 for further follow through. Closed 13.705, up 13.70.
MISC. MARKETS COMMENTS:OCT CRUDE OIL: On the daily chart it continues to appear to be consolidating and forming a base. Again, the longer term charts are not positive. Today was a huge outside day. This consolidation could be to set up the momentum for another wave down. It is just too early to tell. Closed 115.59, down 2.56.
OCT (MINI) NATURAL GAS: I have been waiting to buy it. It began to follow through and rallied to 8.880 yesterday. Today it collapsed down to 7.722, making a new low! Evidentally it is not ready. Just watching. Closed 8.050, down 55.80.
SEPT JAPANESE YEN: Long term it is holding at some support. The market is becoming more positive. I see a potential rally but my concern is all the resistance up at 92.50. I'll continue to watch. Closed 91.34, up 4.
SEPT DOLLAR INDEX: It made a new high two days ago but is struggling at this level. It initially triggered a sell last week. That did not follow through. It then triggered a buy and that is not going anywhere either. Today was an outside day. I still see more potential for a sell-off but will just watch. Closed 77.25, up 9.50.
SEPT EUROCURRENCY: It continues to consolidate and hold the 146.00 support. Just watching. Closed 146.89, down 6.
SEPT CANADIAN DOLLAR: It triggered a sell today from yesterday's inside day. The last one at this level was negated so I prefer to watch. Closed 95.06, down 33.DEC BONDS: They triggered a buy today and are in a previous resistance area. It has almost met the projection for the current wave up so I question the potential here. Closed 118.25, up 2.5.
There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The information in this email may be confidential and/or legally privileged. It is intended solely for the addressee. Access to this email by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender and destroy any copies of this message and any attachments. Any unauthorized use or dissemination or any action taken or omitted to be taken in reliance on it, is prohibited and may be unlawful. This communication is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or other investment product.
All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates - not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
