rounded corner
rounded corner
top border

Euro 'Rises' on Hawkish Tone from ECB.


8/27/2008

Euro Currency (ECU8):

The EC opened higher at 1.4755 after 'hawkish' comments from two ECB members who stated that it is very likely that interest rates will not change until Q1 of 09'. Prices rose to a morning Hi of 1.4764, before a stronger  than expected U.S. Durable Goods report sent the DX higher and the EC to a morning Lo of 1.4652 as we enter the afternoon session. As the DX backed-off at the Pivot resistance level, the EC bounced higher as we approach the close. Higher oil, weaker DX and a bounce into the close of 1.4695, up 61tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/weak momentum indicators. Traders will key on the DX and Q2 GDP, which should give the DX a 'boost' and weigh on the EC. Shorts should tighten 'stops' or buy 'callls' to reduce exposure. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.4767 and 1.4838, while an open below 1.4692 may find Support at 1.4621 and 1.4546. 

Dollar Index (DXU8):

The DX opened lower at 76.85 against a stronger EC, after 'hawkish' comments from ECB members. A better than expected Durable Goods report sent the DX to a morning Hi  at our Pivot level of 77.37, as we enter the afternoon session. Unable to break above the Pivot with authority had traders taking profit/risk off the table as we head towards the close. As oil prices continued higher, the DX eased into the close of 77.195, down 15 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ topping momentum indicators. Higher oil prices due to a possible Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico could offset a supportive Q2 GDP report and weigh on prices. Longs should tighten 'stops' or buy 'puts' to reduce exposure. Financial concerns from the FDIC concerning a 30% increase in possible bank failures could lead to some profit/risk taken off the top. A higher open should find Resistance at 77.45 and 77.71, while an open below 77.12 may find Support at 76.86 and 76.53. 

British Pound (BPU8):

The BP opened higher at 1.8434 against a weaker DX and rose to a morning Hi of 1.8464, before retracing on positive U.S. economic data to a morning Lo of 1.8259 and bouncing into the afternoon session. Prices traded in a thin range around our initial Support level of 1.8274 as we head into the close, with traders keying on the DX for direction. Prices bounced above the 1.8300 level and ended the session at 1.8301, down 60 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ over-sold momentum indicators. What does the ECB know that the BoE doesn't? The ECB sends a 'hawkish' message about leaving rates 'unchanged' at 4.25% and the EC gains 60 tics, while the BoE will likely keep its rate at 5.0% and makes a two-year low. Go figure! The DX will determine direction after the Q2 GDP. A lower open may find Support at 1.8219 and 1.8136, while an open above 1.8341 should find Resistance at 1.8424 and 1.8546.

Canadian Dollar (CDU8):

The CD opened higher at .9584 against the weaker DX and rose to a morning Hi of .9587, before drifting lower to .9547 as the DX rebounded on the Durable Goods report. As the DX continued higher and oil/metals prices retraced off their morning Hi's, the CD slid to a mid-day Lo of .9524 as we begin the afternoon session. Prices bounced above the Pivot level of .9533 as the DX drifted lower going into the close. As oil prices continued higher the CD bounced to a close of .9539, up 6 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive'w/improving momentum indicators. Higher oil/metals prices could see a break above the Tuesday's Hi of .9602. A lower open may find Support at .9513 and .9487, while an open above .9550 should find Resistance at .9576 and .9613. 

Japanese Yen (JYU8):

The JY opened higher at .9178 and rose to a morning Hi of .9183, before retracing against a rising DX to a morning Lo of .9111 and bouncing into the afternoon session. Prices bounced off the mid-day Lo of .9101 as the DX drifted lower and rose to a close of .9130. The s/t trend remains 'positive'w/neutral momentum indicators. The weak economy and low interest rate is not as attractive to investors as other major foreign currencies. Carry-traders will continue for opportunities to take advantage of arbitrage when appropriate. A lower open may find Support at .9090 and .9049, while an open above .9149 should find Resistance at .9190 and .9249. 




 


Recent articles from this author



About the author


Bob Kozak, Currency Futures Analyst
Alaron, www.TheCommodityConsultant.com

Bob Kozak is the Senior Currency Futures Analyst  at Alaron Trading. He has been involved in the financial markets since 1978, when he was recruited as portfolio strategist for a major Wall Street firm. With a degree in Mathematics from the University of Massachusetts, he was drawn towards technical analysis. He moved into the retail sector as a Certified Financial Planner, assisting clients in structuring an investment portfolio suitable for their particular needs, emphasizing income and risk management. A unique opportunity to mentor under a former Chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade enticed Bob into the commodities arena. Bob eventually managed the office of his mentor, before the firm was purchased and relocated to Chicago.

Bob follows most futures markets using primarily Technical Analysis, and takes advantage of the strong correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and those futures purchased in Dollars. You can request a FREE 2-week trail subscription of 

PROBABLE DAILY & WEEKLY TRADING RANGES

by calling Bob at 800-462-4691 or via e-mail at bkozak@alaron.com

Bob has been a frequent contributor to many national publications, including Futures Magazine, Dow Jones Newswire, and Bloomberg FX -TV.

Published by Barchart
Home  •  Charts & Quotes  •  Commentary  •  Authors  •  Education  •  Broker Search  •  Trading Tools  •  Help  •  Contact  •  Advertise With Us  •  Press
Markets: Currencies  •   Energies  •   Financials  •   Grains  •   Indices  •   Meats  •   Metals  •   Softs
Forums: Equity / Stock Index  •   Interest Rates  •   Agriculture  •   Energy  •   Metals  •   FX / Currency  •   Softs  •   Livestock

The information contained on InsideFutures.com is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Market data is furnished on an exchange delayed basis by Barchart.com. Data transmission or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. No information on the site, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. InsideFutures.com is not a broker, nor does it have an affiliation with any broker.

Copyright ©2005-2008 InsideFutures.com, a Barchart.com product. All rights reserved.

About Us  •   Sitemap  •   Legal  •   Privacy Statement