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Dollar 'Holds' Despite Financial Woes.


8/25/2008

Dollar Index (DXU8):

The DX opened higher at 76.91 slid to a mid-day Lo at our Pivot level of 76.675, before bouncing into the afternoon session. A better than expected increase in Existing Home Sales of +3.0% was offset by lower sales prices and concerns over continued credit losses by insurance giant AIG and another U.S. bank failure. Prices recovered to a daily Hi of 76.96 and drifted to a close of 76.905, up 1 tic. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ firm momentum indicators. The DX continues to be 'better' than alternatives in Europe/Asia, but that may be in the eye of the beholder. Keep an eye on the the 'financials' and Tuesday's economic data for a key to direction. A lower open may find Support at 76.64 and 76.37, while an open above 76.93 should find Resistance at 77.19 and 77.48.  

British Pound (BPU8):

The BP opened higher at 1.8497 and slid to a morning Lo of 1.8480, before rising to a mid-day Hi of 1.8464 as the DX retraced. A DX bounce sent the BP lower during the afternoon and ended the session at 1.8495, up 6 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ 'over-sold' momentum indicators. The economic conditions continue to soften and in need of economic stimulus and until it turns around, traders will look to sell rallies, unless the DX falters and triggers a short-covering rally. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.8581 and 1.8666, while an open below 1.8478 may find Support at 1.8393 and 1.8290.

Canadian Dollar (CDU8):

The CD opened higher at .9568 as oil prices moved above $116.05 and the DX retraced. A drop in oil and a bounce in the DX sent the CD to a mid-day Lo of .9505, before ending the session at .9518, down 22 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ neutral momentum indicators. The CD will need to see higher oil/metals prices or DX weakness to break above .9600. A lower open may find Support at .9490 and .9463, while an open above .9533 should find Resistance at .9560 and .9603.  

Euro Currency (ECU8):

The EC opened lower at 1.4755 and rose to a morning Hi at our Pivot level of 1.4792 on DX weakness. Prices retraced to a mid-day Lo of 1.4727 and bounced higher towards the close to end the session at 1.4741, down 17 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ weak momentum indicators. A slowing economy will need a rate cut to help stimulate economic activity, that should weigh on prices or a weaker DX to trigger a short-covering rally. Key on the DX for direction. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.4795 and 1.4850, while an open below 1.4738 may find Support at 1.4683 and 1.4626.  

Japanese Yen (JYU8):

The JY opened higher at .9110 and rose to a mid-day Hi of .9185 as the DX retaced on continued financial concerns. Prices drifted lower during the afternoon session and ended the day at .9161, up 59 tics. The close above the 9-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'positive' w/neutral momentum indicators. Comments from the BoJ's governor stating that Japan's economy is unlikely to experience a 'deep' adjustment phase, helped support higher prices, while a sluggish economy and accommodative rates should limit higher prices. A higher open should find Resistance at .9226 and .9292, while an open below .9120 may find Support at .9054 and .8948. 




 


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About the author


Bob Kozak, Currency Futures Analyst
Alaron, www.TheCommodityConsultant.com

Bob Kozak is the Senior Currency Futures Analyst  at Alaron Trading. He has been involved in the financial markets since 1978, when he was recruited as portfolio strategist for a major Wall Street firm. With a degree in Mathematics from the University of Massachusetts, he was drawn towards technical analysis. He moved into the retail sector as a Certified Financial Planner, assisting clients in structuring an investment portfolio suitable for their particular needs, emphasizing income and risk management. A unique opportunity to mentor under a former Chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade enticed Bob into the commodities arena. Bob eventually managed the office of his mentor, before the firm was purchased and relocated to Chicago.

Bob follows most futures markets using primarily Technical Analysis, and takes advantage of the strong correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and those futures purchased in Dollars. You can request a FREE 2-week trail subscription of 

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by calling Bob at 800-462-4691 or via e-mail at bkozak@alaron.com

Bob has been a frequent contributor to many national publications, including Futures Magazine, Dow Jones Newswire, and Bloomberg FX -TV.

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