GFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar was all over the place again on Wednesday, up against the pound and down versus the yen, which suggests further weakness in the yen crosses. Keep an eye on the US CPI report, which is important.
Euro/dollar
The oversold euro/dollar consolidated in a choppy manner near the bottom of the downtrend and formed another possible bullish reversal. My model remains short since July 22, so buy it only on a confirmation.
Initial support remains at 1.4860. A new pivot low is at 1.4816. Below 1.4735, distant support now moved to 1.4440.
Immediate resistance is still seen at 1.4965. Above 1.5000, the next levels are 1.5065 and 1.5110. Distant resistance is at 1.5200.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen reversed from a one week-low and my model barely remains short. Expect choppy trading today. 109.15 remains the new key Gann pivot that rules in the short term.
Support is now pegged at 1109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65. Next support follows at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Immediate resistance is at 109.65. The next key level is 110.35 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar collapsed on Wednesday to the lowest level since October 2006 amid fresh concern of stagflation. The selling pressure should continue at a reduced pace. Again, cable remains on track for the target of a long-term head-and-shoulders pattern that targets the 1.7550 area.
It surpassed several extensions and immediate support is now at 1.8640. Further support is seen at 1.8510. Strong support follows at 1.8450. Distant support follows at 1.8130.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.8925. Above 1.9035, further resistance comes at 1.9225.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss consolidated near the high of the uptrend after testing the top of the rising channel. It formed another potential bearish reversal formation. My model remains long since July 22, so sell the pair only on a confirmation. All eyes remains on the channel line at 1.0935.
Immediate resistance is still in place at 1.0935. Above it, key resistance remains at 1.1055. This is followed by 1.120o.
Initial support is pegged at 1.0830. Below 1.0725, support is now seen at 1.0620 and 1.0505.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
