Dollar Index (DXU8):
The DX opened lower at 73.415 and slid to a 73.40, before a better than expected forecast from ADP of +9000 new private sector jobs sent the DX to 73.735. Lower oil prices and higher equity prices supported the early move. A greater decline in Gasoline inventories sent oil prices higher and the DX lower to a mid-day low of 73.415. Prices recovered along with equity markets during the afternoon and settled the session at 73.525, up 2 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ firm momentum indicators. Traders will see if oil prices take the 'punch bowl' away from the party or if Friday's Non-Farm Payroll can show an increase of new jobs instead of the expected decrrease of -75,000. A lower open may find Support at 73.32 and 73.13, whiile an open above 73.53 should find Resistance at 73.72 and 73.93.
British Pound (BPU8):
The BP opened lower at 1.9714, rose to 1.9726 and retraced to 1.9676 against a stronger DX. Prices rebounded to a mid-day Hi of 1.9760 as the DX and equity prices were pressured by higher oil prices. After posting an afternoon Hi of 1.9767, prices drifted to a close of 1.9743, up 25 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ weak momentum indicators. Continued pressure from a weak housing sector and slowing economy should keep rates on 'hold', until either lower inflation or improving economy can expect a rate stimulus. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.9787 and 1.9832, while an open below 1.9732 may find Support at 1.9687 and 1.9632.
Canadian Dollar (CDU8):
The CD opened higher at .9765 and rose to .9770 after a higher than expected Industrial Product Price Index of +1.3% lent inflationary support. Prices slid to .9730 as the DX rose and oil/metals prices retreated. A turn-around in oil prices sent the CD to a mid-day Hi of .9778 as the DX gave up early gains. Prices retraced into the close and ended the session at .9762, up 11 tics. A recovery in the U.S. equity markets and bounce in oil prices helped the CD, but not enough to change the s/t trend from 'negative' w/ weak momentum indicators. The CD will benefit if the U.S. economy strengthens, but could be mixed as the DX appreciates. A higher open should find Resistance at .9785 and .9807, while an open below .9757 may find Support at .9735 and .9707.
Euro Currency (ECU8):
The EC opened lower at 1.5527 and rose to 1.5540, before retracing to 1.5485 against the stronger DX and a weaker than expected Consumer Confidence report showing the largest monthly drop since 9/11/01 of -53 pts. Prices bounced higher to a mid-day Hi of 1.5564 on DX weakness, before fading into the close to end the session at 1.5533, down 14 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ weak momentum indicators. The close above the 61.8% Fib Ret. level of 1.5522 will be under the radar, to see if the 'shorts' cover or bargain hunters believe the DX is 'over-bot' and the EC can benefit from the yield-gap. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.5580 and 1.5626, while an open below 1.5532 may find Support at 1.5486 and 1.5438.
Japanese Yen (JYU8):
The JY opened lower at .9267, rose to .9279 and followed most other major foreign currency markets lower against a rising DX. Prices slid to .9254, before bouncing to .9282 after a weak DOE report that sent oil prices higher and DX lower. After topping out at a mid-day Hi of .9286, prices retraced to a close of .9272, down 4 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ weak momentum indicators. Continued weakness in the economy should weigh further on the JY, possibly breaking the Target Lo of .9251 on 6/25 and hitting 'stops' below. A lower open may find Support at .9247 and .9222, while an open above .9279 should find Resistance at .9304 and .9336.
