GFT Daily Market Commentary

The dollar sank across the board on Monday amid renewed concern about the depth of the financial hole the US is in. The DJIA didn’t do all that well and there is little reason to hope for a significant improvement any time soon. It’s summer time and trading is choppy. Thus, the US consumer confidence report might give direction in the short run.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar closed higher on Monday, but my model remains short. The medium-term outlook is now mixed, and only a close above 1.5770 would change the downside risk.
 
So, immediate resistance is seen at 1.5770 from a Fibonacci retracement level.  The next levels remain 1.5790, 1.5820, and 1.5860.  These are followed by 1.5943. A pivot high remains at 1.6036.  

Initial support is at 1.5710. The next level is 1.5678. Below the 1.5629 pivot low, strong support follows at 1.5585. The next good level is at 1.5550. 

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed 
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen is alternating up and down days, and Monday was the down day. The pair fell from a one-month high after the 107.95 Gann pivot held. My model remains long though, if barely.
 
Support remains at 107.35. Strong support follows at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.

Immediate resistance is at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.  Distant resistance is at 109.15.
 
Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish  
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Despite a new report adding to the mountain of proof that the UK housing sector remains weak, sterling/dollar closed higher on Monday, as expected. But cable remains stuck in an inside range and my model is still short.  The upside is only slightly favored, as cable is approaching the top of the declining channel.

Initial resistance now comes at 1.9990. Above it, the next significant level is the pivot high at 2.0075. 

Immediate support is now seen at 1.9920. This is followed by 1.9870. Below 1.9815, support is still seen at 1.9760.  
 
Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed 
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss closed lower on Monday, but despite choppy trading, it didn’t shed much light. My model is long and more information is needed. 
 
Initial support is still seen at 1.0315.  Below 1.0275, support now comes at 1.0200. Distant support is pegged at 1.0140.

Immediate resistance remains at 1.0405. Above 1.0450, resistance now comes at 1.0475. This is followed by 1.0540.

Oscillators are rising.

 
NEAR-TERM: Mixed 
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed