GFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar should march higher on Thursday, but the upside is getting more limited. It wouldn’t take much to end and reverse as the equity markets remain in disarray. The medium-term outlook remains bearish for the dollar.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell further and my model remains short. The medium-term outlook is bullish, but the downside seems favored on the day.
If the initial support at 1.5755 gives way, look for support at 1.5700. Strong support follows at 1.5630. The next good level is at 1.5610.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.5760. The next levels are 1.5820, 1.5860 and 1.5943. A pivot high follows at 1.6036.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen should edge higher on Thursday. Again, the short-term outlook is only slightly positive because there is more significant trendline declining since late December.
Resistance remains at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Initial support is again at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Below 105.85, distant support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar is still alternating up and down days, so Thursday should be a down day! My model remains short.
Immediate support is seen at 1.9880. The next strong level is 1.9845. Below the trendline at 1.9815, support is seen at 1.9760.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9965. Above 2.0005, the next level is 2.0085. A pivot high follows 2.0155.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss should struggle higher on Thursday, and my model is long. The risk is on the upside today, but should not be easy.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0355. Above 1.0390, resistance now comes at 1.0450. This is followed by 1.0540.
Initial support is only seen at 1.0245. Below 1.0200, support now comes at 1.0138 and 1.0100.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Up to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
